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General election 2024

See all MNHQ comments on this thread

How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

1000 replies

pinklite · 23/05/2024 23:04

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
31
BinkyBeaufort · 24/05/2024 12:51

I think an awful lot of people are deeply entrenched in their loyalty to a particular political party, to the extent that however bad things are they will never change their voting habits.
So I do worry that it will be closer than expected.

dameofdilemma · 24/05/2024 12:52

Between the

Car lobby
Anti migrant lobby
Private school fees lobby
Wealthy tax concerned lobby

There are plenty of voters who won’t vote Labour. They might abstain, vote Reform, vote Green (to ease their conscience) - they might not actively vote Tory but will impact the outcome.

Do not underestimate peoples ability to be inward looking, parochial and deliberately shut their minds to the bigger picture. Politicians count on it. In fact they encourage it.

SherrieElmer · 24/05/2024 12:56

They are losing alright. Don't even contemplate any other scenario.
The real question here is whether this will become an extinction event, in other words, could this election mean the end of the Tory Party? As implausible as it may sound, the debacle we have experienced recently with these incompetent twats has been so dramatic that they could very well get wiped out for good.

littlegrebe · 24/05/2024 13:04

ScottishScouser · 24/05/2024 11:38

I'm a Tory. Will I admit it in real life? Nope.

When I do I get called evil, scum, selfish (thats one of the better ones) and physically threatened on occasion.

My family are independence supporting Scots - so we don't discuss it.

My issue is my DH who being Scottish and lifelong union member is genetically predisposed to vote labour except when I point out to him there is not a single policy they have that benefits us - he shuts up. That was certainly the case at the last election.

When the manifestos come out, I will read both as I always do. I will buy a hat and eat it if the labour one has anything in it that mean he and I are better off under about.

Household income £120K
DH retired
I work
No kids
Mortgage free
Private health

Private healthcare is great for getting a GP appointment but when things go really wrong you need a strong NHS. We don't have private A&E in Scotland for starters. And my DH got absolutely first class cancer treatment on the NHS because that's where the experts are.

You are pretty wealthy but you aren't wealthy enough to insulate yourselves from the collapse of the public sector, which is what the Tories are quietly presiding over. What do you think happens when your council goes bust? When more and more kids without support at home fall through the cracks at school and end up addicts and low level criminals, don't you think that will have an impact on your quality of life? Who's emptying your bins and fixing your roads if people in low paid jobs can't keep their heads above water?

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 13:04

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 12:46

and again, reply to the rest....

it is not a major issue facing women when you compare it to those other pressing concerns which the Tories DO NOT CARE ABOUT.

Being anti-trans doesn't equal pro woman. The vast majority of women do not have strong enough feelings on the matter for it to influence their vote. Whereas i would assume a much larger amount care about Women's healthcare, prosecution rates for violence against Women and unequal pay?

Go on, speak about those for a minute. Do you TRULY believe those issues are on the same level as the trans issue for all women? That is to say do you feel the average woman will be as negatively affected by trans women as they are by those other points?

I don't believe it is a binary choice between living in poverty under the Tories who at least know what a woman is, or living in a wonderful almost utopia under Labour where everything is perfect except for this one issue.

Firstly, it's going to cost a lot of money to effect any meaningful change, and there isn't any. I don't know what the solution to that is but I don't think charging VAT on private schools is going to fill the hole.

The uncomfortable truth is that a very very small number of people pay most of the tax in the UK, and those at the very top are internationally mobile and at risk of jumping ship. In order to fund meaningful change in the UK Labour will need to increase taxes on the squeezed middle. Families on 60k who many people on Mumsnet think are swimming in cash but really aren't.

So what are Labour going to deliver and how are they going to pay for it?

Let's wait and see the manifesto but I think it's going to be very, very difficult.

My worry is that the only things that will actually get done are things like "modernising the Gender Recognition Act" which cost nothing except women's rights and safety, so they can say they've done something during their term without having to find the money to actually pay for it.

This risk increases exponentially if Labour do less well than anticipated and end up in coalition with the Lib Dems, because the mad ideological stuff is the only stuff they really agree on and, again, doesn't cost money.

For me personally, it's an astonishing position to be in because I've always been so anti-Tory and for years have wanted nothing more than to see the back of them. But right now (having not yet had a chance to see the manifestos) it appears that they are the only party actually offering something that I think is positive and actually has a chance of being delivered, which is clamping down on the gender madness.

And it does affect me and my loved ones, even overseas. Because the government here has been following developments in the NHS and the publication of the Cass Report very closely. No sooner did NHS England move to stop puberty blockers being prescribed to vulnerable children, the government here announced that they were doing something similar. That keeps my children safer. It is an area where I think the UK is currently leading the way in injecting some common sense back into public discourse, which has repercussions internationally. That progress would be lost with Labour and/or the Lib Dems in charge.

I'm angry about it. I honestly cannot explain to you how very angry I am that Labour cannot just get a fucking grip and be on the side of women's rights and child safeguarding in relation to this issue. I recognise that there has been some reverse ferreting recently, particularly in light of the Cass Report, and I am just crossing my fingers and fervently hoping that it is enough for them not to reverse all the recent progress that has been made. There's more chance of them adopting a sane approach if they get an outright majority (although I would prefer it not to be a crushing one) than if they have to rely on the Lib Dems for support.

None of this resolves my dilemma. I am currently leaning towards not voting. Like you say I have less skin in the game when it comes to other issues, and now I have the right to vote here I am not disenfranchised. So maybe I will just leave it up to other people to decide.

Either way, the only way my vote could possibly be used to unseat a Tory is if it is used to vote for a Lib Dem, and that is the one thing I am absolutely not willing to do.

If Labour commit to a sensible kind of electoral reform in their manifesto, that would be of interest to me and that would be enough to win my vote regardless of the other issues and even though the Labour candidate won't win.

Screamingabdabz · 24/05/2024 13:07

For the hard of thinking…

  • It’s not about trans. No one cares what people want to wear or look like. It’s about legal definitions. If the definition of a woman in law includes men then actual women lose all rights, protections, dignities and political representation.
  • Just because you know a nice trans person a enjoyed sharing a toilet with them doesn’t mean that redefining women to include men won’t include all the bad and nefarious ones who will exploit to it a horrific degree.
  • All of the social justice issues that disproportionately affect biological girls and women will no longer be able to be represented politically or discussed because the definition will include males.
  • Once the law changes, it will be a monumental fight to reverse it as women still are lower down the power hierarchy - because of their biology.
  • We should be concentrating on eradicating gender stereotyping not going backwards.
HTH
Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 13:15

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 13:04

I don't believe it is a binary choice between living in poverty under the Tories who at least know what a woman is, or living in a wonderful almost utopia under Labour where everything is perfect except for this one issue.

Firstly, it's going to cost a lot of money to effect any meaningful change, and there isn't any. I don't know what the solution to that is but I don't think charging VAT on private schools is going to fill the hole.

The uncomfortable truth is that a very very small number of people pay most of the tax in the UK, and those at the very top are internationally mobile and at risk of jumping ship. In order to fund meaningful change in the UK Labour will need to increase taxes on the squeezed middle. Families on 60k who many people on Mumsnet think are swimming in cash but really aren't.

So what are Labour going to deliver and how are they going to pay for it?

Let's wait and see the manifesto but I think it's going to be very, very difficult.

My worry is that the only things that will actually get done are things like "modernising the Gender Recognition Act" which cost nothing except women's rights and safety, so they can say they've done something during their term without having to find the money to actually pay for it.

This risk increases exponentially if Labour do less well than anticipated and end up in coalition with the Lib Dems, because the mad ideological stuff is the only stuff they really agree on and, again, doesn't cost money.

For me personally, it's an astonishing position to be in because I've always been so anti-Tory and for years have wanted nothing more than to see the back of them. But right now (having not yet had a chance to see the manifestos) it appears that they are the only party actually offering something that I think is positive and actually has a chance of being delivered, which is clamping down on the gender madness.

And it does affect me and my loved ones, even overseas. Because the government here has been following developments in the NHS and the publication of the Cass Report very closely. No sooner did NHS England move to stop puberty blockers being prescribed to vulnerable children, the government here announced that they were doing something similar. That keeps my children safer. It is an area where I think the UK is currently leading the way in injecting some common sense back into public discourse, which has repercussions internationally. That progress would be lost with Labour and/or the Lib Dems in charge.

I'm angry about it. I honestly cannot explain to you how very angry I am that Labour cannot just get a fucking grip and be on the side of women's rights and child safeguarding in relation to this issue. I recognise that there has been some reverse ferreting recently, particularly in light of the Cass Report, and I am just crossing my fingers and fervently hoping that it is enough for them not to reverse all the recent progress that has been made. There's more chance of them adopting a sane approach if they get an outright majority (although I would prefer it not to be a crushing one) than if they have to rely on the Lib Dems for support.

None of this resolves my dilemma. I am currently leaning towards not voting. Like you say I have less skin in the game when it comes to other issues, and now I have the right to vote here I am not disenfranchised. So maybe I will just leave it up to other people to decide.

Either way, the only way my vote could possibly be used to unseat a Tory is if it is used to vote for a Lib Dem, and that is the one thing I am absolutely not willing to do.

If Labour commit to a sensible kind of electoral reform in their manifesto, that would be of interest to me and that would be enough to win my vote regardless of the other issues and even though the Labour candidate won't win.

you haven't answered my question. do you truly believe the trans issue is just as big of a negative effect on average women in the UK as all those other metrics?

Yeah 'Torie's know what a woman is" yeah love, they 'know' that so they can make sure single mothers can't afford to feed their kids, make sure they know where to get their next mistresses' abortion,, know who to under pay and many more issues.

Tories are not pro women. They have shown us time and time again that they do not care for women with their policies especially austerity effecting women disproportionately.

Face it, the opinions on MN are not indicative of the wider population of women when it comes to Trans Women. Because for the vast majority it does not effect them at all. Whereas most women in the UK do use the healthcare that is subpar and underfunded and over stretched. They experience SA/Rape from STRAIGHT MALES They are underpaid. They feel the effects of insane childcare fee's more. They care about the issues effecting them and their loved ones the most.

i never claimed it was going to be a utopia under Labour, i simply agreed with the figures that the average woman isn't swung by the trans issues on voting when there are more pressing concerns. I didn't ask you about your politics opinions at all but thanks for giving it i guess.

In short, voting for a party that actively screws over women just because they say they agree with you about Trans women would be laughable if it wasn't so awful. Don't come crying when the leopards eat your face after voting for the 'Leopards eat your face' party.

Remember, the Tories also didn't say anything about Trans until they realised they may be able to use them as a scapegoat. How long until they move onto the next scape goat? Better hope it's not women next...

Chewbecca · 24/05/2024 13:21

I can only speak for my constituency which has always been blue.

We have a great, popular, local Labour ex councillor who wants the chance to be our MP but he has not been selected and an alternative non -local candidate has been selected instead.

The local fella had a slim but conceivable chance of toppling our Tory MP who is not terribly popular. The actual candidate chosen by goodness knows who has no chance whatsoever.

My constituency will be staying Tory, partly due to the daft candidate selection approach by Labour.

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 13:22

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 13:15

you haven't answered my question. do you truly believe the trans issue is just as big of a negative effect on average women in the UK as all those other metrics?

Yeah 'Torie's know what a woman is" yeah love, they 'know' that so they can make sure single mothers can't afford to feed their kids, make sure they know where to get their next mistresses' abortion,, know who to under pay and many more issues.

Tories are not pro women. They have shown us time and time again that they do not care for women with their policies especially austerity effecting women disproportionately.

Face it, the opinions on MN are not indicative of the wider population of women when it comes to Trans Women. Because for the vast majority it does not effect them at all. Whereas most women in the UK do use the healthcare that is subpar and underfunded and over stretched. They experience SA/Rape from STRAIGHT MALES They are underpaid. They feel the effects of insane childcare fee's more. They care about the issues effecting them and their loved ones the most.

i never claimed it was going to be a utopia under Labour, i simply agreed with the figures that the average woman isn't swung by the trans issues on voting when there are more pressing concerns. I didn't ask you about your politics opinions at all but thanks for giving it i guess.

In short, voting for a party that actively screws over women just because they say they agree with you about Trans women would be laughable if it wasn't so awful. Don't come crying when the leopards eat your face after voting for the 'Leopards eat your face' party.

Remember, the Tories also didn't say anything about Trans until they realised they may be able to use them as a scapegoat. How long until they move onto the next scape goat? Better hope it's not women next...

I would love to vote for a pro woman party!

Can you tell me which party that is, please?

Currently my options are Tory, Labour or Lib Dem.

The Lib Dems have said "please don't vote for us if you don't believe men can become trans women are women". So I won't be voting for them.

And Labour have said "99.9% of women do not have a penis" and women who need single sex spaces for their own safety and dignity are "dinosaurs who hoard rights".

It's also a general credibility issue.

I know we have no good options here. I know I am wishing for a magical solution which doesn't exist.

But when a politician says, "I believe a woman can have a penis", I'm afraid my gut reaction is not, "You seem like a sensible person who tells the truth and should be in charge of running the country."

It's more, "Have you taken your medication today?"

Screamingabdabz · 24/05/2024 13:23

You know Labour hate women - look at how many female leaders they’ve had… oh wait…

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 13:27

Screamingabdabz · 24/05/2024 13:23

You know Labour hate women - look at how many female leaders they’ve had… oh wait…

"How can i be racist? i have so many black friends!"

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 13:31

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 13:22

I would love to vote for a pro woman party!

Can you tell me which party that is, please?

Currently my options are Tory, Labour or Lib Dem.

The Lib Dems have said "please don't vote for us if you don't believe men can become trans women are women". So I won't be voting for them.

And Labour have said "99.9% of women do not have a penis" and women who need single sex spaces for their own safety and dignity are "dinosaurs who hoard rights".

It's also a general credibility issue.

I know we have no good options here. I know I am wishing for a magical solution which doesn't exist.

But when a politician says, "I believe a woman can have a penis", I'm afraid my gut reaction is not, "You seem like a sensible person who tells the truth and should be in charge of running the country."

It's more, "Have you taken your medication today?"

once again, you have not answered my question.

Sometimes having these conversations online makes for great learning points for both sides when it comes to finding out how others believe/think with different experiences. But if people genuinely believe the Trans women is as THE MOST important thing and what effects us the most negatively i am honestly in disbelief.

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 13:32

Screamingabdabz · 24/05/2024 13:23

You know Labour hate women - look at how many female leaders they’ve had… oh wait…

you have heard of internalised misogyny right?

There are many women who would gladly throw every single other women under the bus if it means they do well.

Dollenganger333 · 24/05/2024 13:36

littlegrebe · 24/05/2024 13:04

Private healthcare is great for getting a GP appointment but when things go really wrong you need a strong NHS. We don't have private A&E in Scotland for starters. And my DH got absolutely first class cancer treatment on the NHS because that's where the experts are.

You are pretty wealthy but you aren't wealthy enough to insulate yourselves from the collapse of the public sector, which is what the Tories are quietly presiding over. What do you think happens when your council goes bust? When more and more kids without support at home fall through the cracks at school and end up addicts and low level criminals, don't you think that will have an impact on your quality of life? Who's emptying your bins and fixing your roads if people in low paid jobs can't keep their heads above water?

I agree. That sort of income is comfortable but definitely not enough to afford private healthcare unless it comes with your career.

But this poster does not have children so that would put things in a different light for her I guess.

SJ1991x · 24/05/2024 13:38

Not at all.

I was convinced they’d lose last time. Then look what happened. Lots of people are Tories for some batshit reason. Like turkeys voting for Christmas

TooBigForMyBoots · 24/05/2024 13:39

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 13:22

I would love to vote for a pro woman party!

Can you tell me which party that is, please?

Currently my options are Tory, Labour or Lib Dem.

The Lib Dems have said "please don't vote for us if you don't believe men can become trans women are women". So I won't be voting for them.

And Labour have said "99.9% of women do not have a penis" and women who need single sex spaces for their own safety and dignity are "dinosaurs who hoard rights".

It's also a general credibility issue.

I know we have no good options here. I know I am wishing for a magical solution which doesn't exist.

But when a politician says, "I believe a woman can have a penis", I'm afraid my gut reaction is not, "You seem like a sensible person who tells the truth and should be in charge of running the country."

It's more, "Have you taken your medication today?"

You don't know what your options are. They haven't been announced yet.

Dollenganger333 · 24/05/2024 13:39

Last time, though, Brexit muddied the waters. And Boris Johnson was very popular with a lot of people back then (for some strange reason)

BIossomtoes · 24/05/2024 13:49

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 13:32

you have heard of internalised misogyny right?

There are many women who would gladly throw every single other women under the bus if it means they do well.

I seem to recall our first female PM was one of those. There wasn’t a single woman in her cabinet.

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 13:52

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 13:31

once again, you have not answered my question.

Sometimes having these conversations online makes for great learning points for both sides when it comes to finding out how others believe/think with different experiences. But if people genuinely believe the Trans women is as THE MOST important thing and what effects us the most negatively i am honestly in disbelief.

As others have pointed out, it's not just about "trans women". This is a really simplistic way of viewing things. And I think it is where Labour have gone wrong, actually. Too many of them think it's just about "being kind".

It is about whether women fundamentally exist as a political category. We will always exist as a biological category, and we will always have our own unique experiences and needs which are relevant to us and not to men. But if there is no word for us, no recognition in law that we exist on that basis, we cannot organise in our own self interest.

We have no single sex spaces. All our toilets, changing rooms, rape counselling groups, hospital wards, prison wings, ALL of them are now mixed sex. Because if a trans woman can walk into those spaces, so can any man. There is no way to distinguish between them, either physically or in law. So all the safeguards that single sex spaces were intended to create just fall away.

Opportunities for women and girls disappear. Biological males can take places on all women shortlists, compete in our sports. You may think sport is a niche issue, particularly in a cost of living crisis, but it has such an impact, particularly for children. Children who play sport are healthier, fitter, more confident, they gain leadership skills, they have experiences they would not otherwise have. These skills and experiences help them access better opportunities in the adult world by giving them more confidence to achieve things and more strings to their bow. It makes them that little bit more likely to achieve great things (not just in sport but in all areas of life). And girls already do less sport than boys. Girls already quit earlier, because they aren't encouraged, because they are embarrassed about their bodies, because it's not seen as a girl thing. If you allow boys into girls' sports you undermine the whole system and give girls even less reason to participate and to achieve their potential, when girls need it more than boys do.

Then of course there's the impact on our children generally. Why on earth would we teach them that whether you are a girl or a boy is a matter of identity, not biology? That it is something you choose? That it depends on whether you choose to perform feminine stereotypes or masculine ones? Why are we teaching gender non conforming, autistic and gay children to fear puberty? Why are we encouraging them to believe they need to change their healthy bodies to match their personalities? This is absolutely horrific stuff.

And finally, boundaries. If you teach your daughters that they have to be OK with boys in their spaces and sports, that they don't have the right to privacy and dignity, that they don't have the right to say no to boys who say they are girls, that they have to give them the benefit of the doubt, how the hell are you going to teach her about stranger danger, or the importance of consent to sex? You've already taught her that her consent doesn't matter the moment a boy says he is a girl or a man says he is a woman.

The ramifications of all of this really can't be understated. It's already gone much too far, and I worry that if the next party of government takes it even further, the damage is going to be impossible to undo.

I'm not saying don't vote Labour.

People are clearly desperate and we all have to vote the way we think is best.

But please don't dismiss this as a fringe issue, because it's not.

And if any of what I have said here troubles you in any way, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE write to your Labour candidate about it.

Let's make it impossible to say nobody cares about this and it never comes up on the doorstep. Make it clear that you do care and you want them to listen. Because they almost certainly will be in government in two months' time, and it is in everyone's interests for them to do a good job.

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 13:58

BIossomtoes · 24/05/2024 13:49

I seem to recall our first female PM was one of those. There wasn’t a single woman in her cabinet.

Exactly.

I applaud any woman in politics for pushing their way into a male dominated space (even if i do not agree with or vehemently disagree with their politics), especially a woman not born into the upper classes making the climb into such a position hard earned.

But her being a woman doesn't absolve the Tories of criticisms of their handling of women, time and time again.

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 13:58

TooBigForMyBoots · 24/05/2024 13:39

You don't know what your options are. They haven't been announced yet.

I would be very surprised if they were different to last time and even if they are, what difference would the addition of the Greens make?

SJ1991x · 24/05/2024 13:59

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 13:58

I would be very surprised if they were different to last time and even if they are, what difference would the addition of the Greens make?

I have previously voted for the Green’s as a way of saying ‘I know they won’t win, but I want the percentage to show how much people do care about these issues’ but I’m not sure about it any more. Last time I voted Labour to oust the Tories and that didn’t fucking work either.

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 14:02

SJ1991x · 24/05/2024 13:59

I have previously voted for the Green’s as a way of saying ‘I know they won’t win, but I want the percentage to show how much people do care about these issues’ but I’m not sure about it any more. Last time I voted Labour to oust the Tories and that didn’t fucking work either.

I've previously voted for the Greens too, but they're in the bonkers category with the Lib Dems now. They don't even seem to care about climate change anymore.

TooBigForMyBoots · 24/05/2024 14:07

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 13:58

I would be very surprised if they were different to last time and even if they are, what difference would the addition of the Greens make?

It is clear that you no longer live in the UK.

The Greens are not the only small party standing. Reform UK say they will have candidates in most constituencies this time round. The Workers Party and SDP are also standing in more constituencies. Independents are doing well, so one of them might suit you better. Many, many Tory MPs are standing down, I think it's nearly 100 of them. This is a fucking nightmare for the Tories and you might find they put Caroline Nokes, Alicia Kearns or Jamie Wallis into your constituency.😱

bozzabollix · 24/05/2024 14:09

Screamingabdabz · 24/05/2024 13:07

For the hard of thinking…

  • It’s not about trans. No one cares what people want to wear or look like. It’s about legal definitions. If the definition of a woman in law includes men then actual women lose all rights, protections, dignities and political representation.
  • Just because you know a nice trans person a enjoyed sharing a toilet with them doesn’t mean that redefining women to include men won’t include all the bad and nefarious ones who will exploit to it a horrific degree.
  • All of the social justice issues that disproportionately affect biological girls and women will no longer be able to be represented politically or discussed because the definition will include males.
  • Once the law changes, it will be a monumental fight to reverse it as women still are lower down the power hierarchy - because of their biology.
  • We should be concentrating on eradicating gender stereotyping not going backwards.
HTH

To the hysterical from the hard of thinking. I’d love to know the reason behind your thoughts, as to why a party who have systematically made life worse for women in their many years of governance can all of a sudden make women’s lives better just through this one single issue?

If my past acquaintance has legal right as a woman what actual practical effect will that have? Would it be as significant as say women having access to childcare (the Tories have run down funding to childcare so many have closed)? Women giving birth safely in a fully staffed and resourced NHS? Women being able to earn as much as men, not being held back as we all are by having children?

You might think I’m hard of thinking but I’m also a pragmatist. We need practical policies as women to help us. Personally if the legal definition of women include a few people with dicks we might be treated a bit better (and I’m only being partly flippant there).

Your single issue isn’t enough to fuck over the whole country for. No way.

Personally I’m happy I never had any kind of gender confusion, it’s a long and unhappy path and people generally have a horrible time with it. Making a massive issue over the small minority who suffer it is just bloody cruel tbh.

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