How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

[pinklite]

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

I think it's the best chance we've had for a long time to get the Tories out but it's dangerous to be complacent. If you want them gone and have a little bit of free time or can afford to chuck a fiver into your local non-Tory candidate of choice's fundraiser then you might want to consider getting involved in some way.

Oddschecker has Labour as favourites to win (2/17). They also had Leave the EU as the favourite and Trump winning as the favourite. Neither of those things came as a shock to me.

At the moment, Labour will win. So long as they don't do anything stupid...

I agree that the Tories need to go but I'm not enamoured by Labour either. It's tricky. All the councils that have gone bankrupt in recent years are Labour run which is worrying.

A majority of over 60s will vote Tory to protect their pensions and investments, and because they agree with the sentiment of anti-immigration, anti-Europe, anti-trans and cracking down on benefits.

I hate them but don't feel confident at all. Most of my work colleagues were silent when a discussion about the election was underway - as pp said, lots of shy tories who are either embarrassed or don't want to be shouted down by angry Labour-supporters.

Morning, everyone. This didn't seem to be an AIBU question so we've moved it over to our GE 2024 board.

Lots of the over 60s will vote reform this time, or perhaps not even vote.I know of a fair few that will do one of those two. That’s the problem the Tories are facing.

The polling would suggest otherwise re people's views!

I hope you are right lonely crab.

Reform could take a lot of over-65s voters off the Tories IF they can get their candidate list together in time.

Remember that the Brexit Party didn't stand against the Tories in the last election in any Tory-held seats: they did a deal to avoid splitting the right of centre vote and letting in the Lib Dems, so this is a completely new danger for the Tories.

I'd prefer Labour in a conflict to these current arseholes masquerading as Tories.

They're self-serving, corrupt arseholes and I genuinely believe they don't give a shit about this country other than what they can take for personal gain. I can't think of anyone worse to see us through a period of conflict.

The war stuff isn't going to work for the Tories. It would've shown up in the polls by now if it was.

Short of Kier Starmer going out and shooting a puppy on live TV, I don't think there is anything that make make the Tories win the next election.

The only question is the size of the majority for labour. I reckon it'll be 150ish, but it could be anywhere between 10 and 300.

A poll has just dropped, with data obtained since the election was called:
LAB 45% (+1)
CON 29% (-2)
Reform 14% (+2)
LibDem 12% (=)

Conclusion : The Tories really are completely & utterly fucked.

I'm pretty sure the Tories are going to lose for loads of reasons.

1. They have done zero planning for this election. They're going to struggle to fill the seats of the 100(?) MPs stepping down nevermind getting a proper strategy in place in 6 weeks.
2. They have alienated their core voters including farmers, business owners and even Tory MPs.
3. They've failed. They had 14 years in government and have only succeeded in making life worse for most UK citizens and destabilising the Union.
4. Sunak. No one likes him, not even his own party.
5. Sunak. How can anyone possibly vote for a party when we know that the day after the GE the leader is gone, but we don't know who will replace him.
6. THEY PARTIED WHILE PEOPLE SUFFERED AND DIED ALONE.
7. Rwanda, Brexit, the trans shitshow.

Even then, if it turns out the Mail or whatever have footage of him murdering cats that they're just waiting to drop, people still wouldn't vote Tory. They'd stay at home or go 3rd party.

I think this as well!

Well, I was totally confident we would stay in Europe, so I have given up my fledgling career in political punditry.

To quote Mark Twain, 'if you have all the fools on your side, that's a big enough majority in any town'

I'll be putting £20 quid on a small Tory majority and £50 on a hung Lab/LD parliament.

A week's a long time in politics and people will vote with their pockets because that's what people have always done historically.

I'd be not displeased to see Labour win. They will revolt against a reasonable Starmer within 18 months. We'll see union resurgence, they'll have to deal with the NHS and introduce reforms, they'll find they don't have the money to fulfill promises, a brain drain will start, the economy will start shrinking and a lot of the electorate will be thoroughly pissed off.

Meanwhile the Tories will sort their house out and hopefully a new centrist party may form and build, divesting itself of reform bolleaux and attracting sane minds from Labour.

Our current system is dead on its feet. Let the battle begin.

Viva la revolution.

I agree with most of your list, and would add more if I had time, but I disagree on number 5, because the Tory message is "Vote Tory, make us the government and Rishi will be the PM". Presumably if Keir was caught pissing on the late queen's grave and the Tories actually won then Sunak would stay on as PM.

In modern times losing leaders do tend to leave, and the parties do tend to change their tack: that's just a fact of life, not a reason to avoid voting for a party who might lose.

They are indeed, and it's even worse than the polls show. 29% of votes sometimes gets you an ok bloc of seats. Labour only got slightly more than that in 2019 and had over 200. 29% of the vote can mean you're not in wipeout territory, that most of your big names survive. It's regroupable.

That does not, however, look like it's going to happen for the Tories this time. They're usually the party that benefits most from FPTP... but not in 2024! It looks like the swings won't be uniform, and people won't vote tactically.

In relation to your point three, have you not noticed that Labour, for fourteen years, have failed to wine a national election. They haven't even been in the race.

How would that impact on Tory chances now, though? We all know Labour haven't won a GE for 20 years. It didn't seem to have any impact on the Tories in 2019, when they got a substantial majority despite it being over a quarter of a century since they'd last done so.

Even if the Tories win, they'll oust Sunak. He's very unpopular with the party. WRT to changing tack, that is exactly what the new leader will do, so those voting Tory in this election have no idea what they're voting for. It's disgraceful!

I suspect a hung parliament or a very slim conservative majority. I am not expecting a Labour landslide or anything like it. I don’t think the public have enough confidence in Starmer, or have any idea what they will actually be voting for if they vote Labour other than more immigration and higher taxes. Labour simply do not have the resources to fund any real or lasting changes.

As reform are going head-on with the Tories this time and the clusterf* that is the SNP it should be very comfortable for Labour.