How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

[pinklite]

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

Silly me - I heard Keir Starmer talk about 'the past 14 years' in an interview this morning - the old codger.

Ageism is a an issue in this country, you should know better....

Somebody's work record is always relevant, esp when re applying for your job.

You just happened to be reading that did you 🤣

I haven’t been on the political threads for the last couple of years but I do remember good old cutandpasteanova supporting Boris and co during Covid. Some things never change. Good for you to be still outwardly supporting the conservatives unlike your own MPs.

Three in my department of 20. My cleaner is Eastern European, my gardener is Spanish, when our house was renovated a few years ago, half the workmen were Eastern European.

Local supermarkets have Polski shelves, staff at our local hospital are Eastern European.

Your experience doesn't mirror mine, nor my DDs former hospital either.

But of course a "few years ago" Brexit was official, in 2020.

Thats the prob with anecdotes but official figures on EU workers coming here post 2020 don't lie.

RobinStrike
ignored the outcomes of Exercise Cygnus in 2016 that mimicked events under a pandemic

You obviously haven't read Exercise Cygnus - the exercise was set 7 weeks into a severe flu pandemic with the assumption that up to half the population was infected and 400,000 people died. The exercise was about coping with an overwhelmed health service. Jeremy Hunt recalled being asked to chair a meeting called 'population triage' e.g. deciding who should live or die in resource-limited situations. He was asked whether he was willing to order the closure of all intensive care beds and turn off ventilators in order to release doctors and nurses into the community (he says he declined).

I thought it would be closer than polls suggested.

However I don't think the Tory campaign is doing well.

I'm worried about Labour - some of their polices right to die debate/women rights generally - and being in Wales with decades of them running services can't say I buy the sunshine and rainbows spiel but they looked bit more competent to run UK.

Now since national insurance bullshit Labour look way more competent - and unless they fuck up in campaign I'll likely vote for them and give them benefit of the doubt in areas of concern.

No one can say the Tories managed the pandemic well, the run down of PPE, contracts, tracing program, care homes and now, uniquely among our competitors, the UK has seen huge increase in waiting lists and the economically inactive.

Also, one key aspect for next government is immigration in masses. Tories have been hopeless but at least they have tried. Always stopped and vilified.

No they haven't! Have you looked at the numbers @Bululu? They've failed on immigration control. The Tory Illegal Migration Bill keeps getting stopped because it is illegal. They knew it was illegal when they proposed it, but still wasted 100s of millions of pounds on it. Never was a Bill so aptly named.

The Tories have failed spectacularly on immigration, just as they've failed us on nearly everything.🤷‍♀️

👏👏👏👏
well said.

I think it will be closer than polls predict but I think Labour will win.

I’m just worried about how public services will cope with no taxes on pensions and cuts to NI, if not its wholesale scrapping which Hunt toyed with a few months ago. Scrapping of inheritance tax, HS2 cancelled and money taken from the levelling up fund to pay for NS.
I wonder if this is all part of the gradual shift towards a US style fend for yourself society where very little is provided by the state. I’m sure in some parts of the US they don’t even pay tax (might be wrong there)..
There are long time well documented connections with US funded pressure groups via Tufton St like CPS, American friends of the IEA who have donated thousands to the tories, many of them climate change denying, evangelical Christian.

Where’s the crowing? It’s not that children attending private schools don’t matter, it’s just that for the vast majority the situation hasn’t changed at all. You can still pay for private education (including VAT) or you can use state education that is open to all.

Alexandra2001
uniquely among our competitors, the UK has seen huge increase in waiting lists

Republic of Ireland clearly have problems (population 5 million);

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/hse-spending-squeeze-funding-to-cut-hospital-wait-lists-at-risk-despite-900000-in-queues/a747381920.html

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-41307955.html

Not necessarily there are many posts in private schools that state will have no or little need for
Teachers of Latin
Russian
Classics
Photography
Pottery
Drama ( not all states do this )
Non teaching Housemasters/ mistresses
Cleaners
The entire kitchen department
Bursars
Beadles
Maintenance
Gardeners

Some if these might be transferable but a lot of people would have to retrain, go into early retirement or abroad.

Just finding a job elsewhere when your skill set and CV shows no experience in a particular field is not that easy as ……they’ll just move to state schools

@BrownTroutBluesAgain teachers for the first three subject areas I agree are not found regularly in state schools. It would be great if more state schools start to offer these options though! Sometimes as one door closes another opens…

The rest of the occupations listed would likely be snapped up with their transferable skills. This of course would be in the case of whole school closure which is not necessarily happening.

BrownTroutBluesAgain
Not necessarily there are many posts in private schools that state will have no or little need for

Not to mention jobs in the surrounding community, especially in more rural areas if a school closes - e.g. cafes and shops that rely on trade from private school parents and staff.

I just happened to be reading that 100 Labour MPs stepped down in 2010 yes! Funnily enough there's lots of election stuff in the media. The rest was obviously something I looked up before.

Rural Schools won't close, the IFS did a study into this, its scaremongering.

Fees have easily out stripped inflation in more recent years, yet numbers attending PS have gone up.

Plus Reeves has said no fiscal event, should Labour win, so nothing will change (if at all) for at least 2 years.

Exactly.
Hotels and restaurants are crammed full when it’s drop off and pick up days where our old school was.
The school also uses local produce from surrounding estates. Huge contracts to feed day, boarding and staff.
in a financial report a few years ago the school provides several million to the local economy.
Plus the local jobs.

Labour are not going to wait 2 years! FFS this is just pure speculation! Starmer has said it’s the first thing he will do in office. I fully expect nurseries and universities will come next. Closing small village schools and anything connected to a church, especially if it’s white and Christian. He will be taxing us to the moon and back whilst he sits in interviews telling us women have penises, and doing sod all to improve our actual lives.

Has Yvette Cooper been asked about this?

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/european-commission-president-supports-party-s-immigration-policy-that-echoes-uks-rwanda-plan/3158609

Well if the school is big enough and financially robust enough to be spending several million in the local economy then it sounds like it will be able to cut its cloth and survive then. They may get turkey twizzlers on the menu occasionally but there will still be jobs, pupils and a school!

@Polishedshoesalways interested to know your opinion on the Tory record in power ? Incoming cuts to inheritance tax, eliminating tax on pensions, how do you think state schools will survive if the coffers are bare seeing as you seem so concerned by the plight of state schooled kids ?

We also have a huge laundry team
One for every house plus a large building with loads of staff as well. All doing laundry.
Not much call for that in state.
Then there’s our security staff that have a dual role as they are also security for the Cathedral but paid for by the school.