How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

[pinklite]

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

Us together - you are assuming the people opposed to vat on fees are all parents. Over 76,000 teachers work in the private sector - that doesn’t include support staff.

And there will be new jobs in the state sector. 🤷‍♀️

"And there will be new jobs in the state sector. "
And existing jobs in the state sector.

My thoughts exactly. I had one child in private school and have put two through state school recently (youngest still there) for context.
I know it's a cliche, but it's really true that lots of people in our private school at least did go without to prioritise their child's education, if it was within reach.
It was out of our reach for my two younger children (big age gap) and I do regret that. But I do know that there are a lot more fancy big cars at pick-up time than there were at my oldest son's private school. That is a fact.
Taxing private school fees is just a crowd pleaser to play to the silly left-wing who think everyone at private school wears a top hat and their parents are the mystical 'rich'.
Pretty much the same as today's Tory announcement that pensioners will not pay as much tax is to woo older voters.

Us - your opening word ‘apparently’ is doing a lot of work there!

Versus around 470,000 teachers in the state sector without including a huge number of support staff.

You really feel that this is a vote loser given the multitude of other problems in life. Many private school parents will pay the difference they won't all say oh well move to state school. Stop exaggerating the actual affect on society to fit your own main issue. People actually vote on a range of issues.

Well until the tax is collected. £1.7 billion or around that is a great sum for improvements in state school education

Lots of teachers stand to lose their jobs and no one seems to care.

Shows how much attention you've paid to the situation in state education that you think there won't be a vacancy waiting for them.

Perhaps some of us look at improvements for many rather than giving a tax break for a few.

Exactly, there are lots of vacancies to fill.

Are people even aware that teacher vacancies have doubled in the state sector in the last two years? The lack of awareness.

I have never seen so many jobs advertised in schools as there are now-I don’t think anyone will struggle to find one.

By the way, my children are adults so doesn't affect me but I still believe that ALL CHILDREN deserve the best education possible.

Us together - everyone knows there are lots of vacancies! But if 3 or 4 History teachers in a small town lose their jobs they are vanishingly unlikely to all find a new job within their area. Or are you suggest they all start teaching physics because there is a shortage in that.Even more tricky if you are a senior teacher - the vacancies don’t automatically match everyones skills / subject areas. People can’t just move to another part of the country if they have a working partner or caring responsibilities. I’ve been looking at the job ads on TES - there has been nothing that I could apply for without a very significant salary drop and an hour + commute. You wouldn’t suggest this to anyone else! “You’ve lost your job in a car factory? Never mind just move to somewhere near another factory and hope that a job matching your particular skills comes up or just take a lower paying one”.

I think you’ll find that everyone agrees that all children deserve the best opportunities - I agree that it would be better if all state schools were of a standard that no one took the option of private. You aren’t special in thinking about that.

it is also not unreasonable that when people’s livelihoods are under direct threat this is the most important issue for them in this election. Try a little sympathy - you do realise teachers are human and that most who work in private schools do so for locational reasons.

To put my cards on the table I’m broadly in favour of the VAT on private school businesses. A small private school closed in our neighbouring town in Covid years due to becoming financially unviable so let’s not pretend this is an entirely new issue. Plus energy prices and inflation have driven schools costs up across the board. Of course I have sympathy with anybody being made redundant, however I have to agree that there are undoubtedly vacancies in state schools. Or from the private school that closed nearby some teachers went into private tutoring online so a further option for those in rural locations.

This debate seems to be getting stuck on the issue of private school taxation. Moving beyond that I’m interested in what the posters, who are backing the Conservatives, have to say about the policy to reintroduce National Service? As to me that is more of a reason to vote the Tories out! Or are you happy to have private school fees stay the same but enforced national service? Or do you dislike both the VAT increase and the reinstatement of national service and therefore don’t really have a main party to vote for?

It doesn't astonish me. I read the threads about the Truss tax on mortgage holders. The sheer lack of empathy was 🤯 with people being told it was their own fault, they need to work another job and they should have planned better.🙄

You wouldn’t suggest this to anyone else!

Wasn’t it the Tory Norman Tebbit who ordered the unemployed to “Get on yer bike”? Of course you’d suggest to someone becoming unemployed that they’re unlikely to find the perfect job on their doorstep. I imagine a vast number of parents of private school pupils have a commute of at least an hour.

Well I sit here as my neighbour is pottering around the garden.
He is 57 and retired at 55. He has just got a new car and had a new kichen fitted so I assume money is not an issue.
Could this be where some of these vacancies are coming from, I wonder?

Back at you, try a little sympathy for state school pupils struggling with lack of funding when £1.7 billion ish could improve for all. Don't they deserve the better facilities seen at private schools for the few? Improving education for all should be an aim for all rather than protecting the best advantages for just a few children.

Try a little sympathy for people struggling to eat who have other priorities rather than the removal of tax advantage on school fees. Don't they deserve consideration in what's important in improving in society? It's all about this one issue to you.

Try a little sympathy for people struggling with mortgages who don't have thousands spare each term for school fees. Again, only school fees are important to you, they won't have that as a voting issue.

You won't all lose your jobs. Every child will not be removed from private education. Every private school will not close. Dramatic language, but it won't happen no matter how much you pretend it will.

There are a multitude of issues in the election the one you and others put up as all important affects a very small number of the population of the UK.

@Meadowtrees I’m not familiar with the set up of many private schools but are you saying there are 3or4 history teachers in each so there would be 3 history teachers job losses should one school close completely or does this mean 1or 2 per school and you think multiple private schools would close in one town?

Surely in the case of multiple small schools, the second would likely gain pupils from the closure of the first? Thus teaching staff in school one would lose their jobs but not in the second school?

In the case of a large private school with 3 or 4 teachers per subject area if they had smaller pupil numbers due to cost surely they would scale down & retain some teachers per subject?

Your scenario seems extreme?

Well, Teachers, along with many other public sector workers, always used to retire at 55, plus women at 60.... its nothing new.

Your neighbour isn't a drain on society and if he was in the private sector, which Govt allowed him to get his pension at 55 ?

The accessing of pensions is probably why we have so many more early retirees.

It seems extreme because it is.

I think 18 year olds doing 12 days of voluntary work is a great idea! Who wouldn’t! My kids do to - but again they already volunteer and see the benefit of it. I’d like more detail on the practicalities of it though.

There is nothing wrong with being a single issue voter - if there is a policy that has the potential to really upend your life and career, mortgage payments, it’s pretty major. Online tutoring wouldn’t earn anything like a full time senior teachers salary and personally I’d find it sound destroying. I work with SEN kids and value the interactions with them and my colleagues.

if it wasn’t for the vat, women’s rights, and lack of clear plans or how to fund them I would consider voting Labour- but sadly those changes are unlikely! I really don’t like having no choice! The tories aren’t perfect either. I’d really like a new, centrist, rational, aspirational party, that offered a safety net whilst rewarding endevour, talent and duty.

It was what the Tories expected of all the people in mining communities who had lived and worked there for generations! They had zero compassion for them losing their livelihoods and communities.

i've also had this in this exact thread. Pointing out that there are more pressing issues effecting women = not a feminist on MN it seems...

@Alexandra2001

the Tories have tripled NHS waiting lists.....

Wait until labour get in and then you too can experience what labour has done to the NHS in wales