How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

[pinklite]

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

since the financial meltdown Labour created the last time they were in office.

I think you mean the global recession that the Labour government mitigated to a very large extent.

I agree given the number of pupils in state schools versus the number in private, then take out the ones that will just pay the extra bit, very small increase in overall numbers per class spread around the UK. The people I know that attended private would just soak up the small increase in costs.

Hmmm, you stating that Noblegiraffe has ‘no idea’ about the situation in state schools shows that you really haven’t been paying much attention!

I'm loving the mathematics of 'class sizes will double overnight'. Even if every single private school pupil leaves and all private schools close, that won't happen because private school pupils are only 7% of the total school population.

Also stop it with the implication that Labour caused the global financial crisis. It's not big and it's certainly not clever.

@blossomtoes perhaps I'm getting muddled with the demographics of who turned out? Lots of older people but hardly any young un's?

Puts me in mind of Gove and wanting all schools to be above average.

There are over 10.3 million pupils in state schools in the UK.

Spread over the country the small number of people who would rather than pay a small increase in fees (some schools will adjust their tiny class sizes to keep.costs down or absorb the rise other ways) move children to a state school will not be as dramatic as you pretend.

The fact that this is such a massive voting issue to you shows how out of touch you are with the parents of the over 10.3 million state educated children 😂 who aren't bothered by it.

@pinklite I don't think the Torys will win the GE, but I'm not convinced Labour will win either.

I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a hung parliament which could be a good thing as it will give both main parties a chance to regroup and get their act together. Both current sides are of a general low quality IMO.

However, I am often wrong 😂

I’m not being offensive to state school parents as we already want state school provision to be better. The more people who want, need and care about that the better in my opinion.

‘They will be spending all their hard earned money on bloody tutors so their children stand half a chance in future’ a) see point above about making sure education is adequately funded for all b) you are being offensive if you think that is the only way for children to succeed - who do you think you and your children live amongst, work with and are educated by? Answer is not everyone in your world will have been privately educated and they still manage to live fulfilling & successful lives, gasp!

Brexit will unfortunately make it more difficult for you to live, work and study abroad if you choose to move in Europe but otherwise adios! Plus that solves the problem of any more state school places being needed if people flounce abroad.

@Polishedshoesalways i assume you have children in private school and don’t want to pay more. I understand that but stop trying to dress that up as a societal problem, there’s quite enough of them already.

"State education is in a terrible mess"

"Right, so I definitely shouldn't vote for the Tories who put it in that state then"

"No, you should vote for the Tories because Labour are going to put a tax on private school fees and this will instantly cause all private schools to close because there is no other option and those private school kids will move into your state school and literally have to share a chair with your kid but they will also at the same time move abroad"

ok, you seem normal.

My children are at university.

What is wrong with you that you can’t imagine a life beyond Europe. Such small minded perspective.

Maybe step out of the echo chamber and start thinking beyond it. Labour will come to regret this failed policy because it does nothing to address real inequality and will just sink the vastly underfunded state system therefore leading to LESS opportunity for a certain demographic of children not more!

...it does nothing to address real inequality and will just sink the vastly underfunded state system therefore leading to LESS opportunity for a certain demographic of children not more!

Like the ridiculous National Service thingy that's the only Tory "Policy"🙈 announced so far?

Labour will come to regret this failed policy because it does nothing to address real inequality and will just sink the vastly underfunded state system therefore leading to LESS opportunity for a certain demographic of children not more!

So vote Tory, who have vastly underfunded the state system to the point of collapse and who show every sign of wanting to continue to do this?

I mean, you're getting pretty hyped up about what a Labour policy might do (double class sizes! Sink the state system!) but you seem remarkably chill about the Conservatives and what they actually have done to the state system.

How do these minority private school parents manage to derail every election thread? The VAT policy proposal is not going to have any impact on the election outcome as the number of people directly affected are too small (and probably more likely to vote Conservative anyway). The vast majority of voters either support the policy or have little interest in it, certainly not enough to sway their vote.

Whatever hyperbole about the effect on state schools they come out with just comes across to everyone else as rich people sour grapes.

@Polishedshoesalways as far as I can tell you are the only one on this thread trying to insult people and frothing over this policy. The other posters either don’t really care about it or actively support it. You may disagree with their reasons in doing so, but it’s clearly not the policy misstep you claimed it to be in this election.

The recent derail on this thread re the private school tax was by someone against it on page 26.
Yes I am that sad I decided to look .

So not ‘these minority private school parents’ this time anyway 😁

I suspect it will be a ripple on the pool. The very wealthy and international status-seekers will continue to send their sons to Eton, Winchester and other celebrated schools and their daughters to Cheltenham Ladies College. I think the change will mainly affect provincial Y12 and 13, where quite a few parents shift to paying for the two years A level preparation for university. This is the age range at which private schooling peaks: only 7% of all pupils attend private schools, but for A levels it shoots up to nearly 20% in some areas. Of course, it's still a minority of all 16-18 year olds.

I'm not sure those who will struggle with VAT on schools fees won't blame the Tories. After all they probably could have afforded it and more if PM Liz hadn't Trussterfucked the economy, adding £100s, sometimes £1000s of pounds to their mortgage bills every month.

And if that's a family's educational strategy, to find £15-18K pa for two years, then I don't think it will be a dealbreaker to find another 20%. But I do think it will make life tough for some families with marginal SEN issues whose children find huge schools terrifying.

Local observations, from schools I know a bit about. One, Exmouth Community College, has 3,500 pupils on roll, across three campuses. Another, serving West Devon and Dartmoor is 12 form entry. The closest to us, in SE Cornwall, is 10 form entry. Academically, none of them perform well, although each manages to send a handful to Oxbridge occasionally. Funding per capita is not the same across the nation. Rural and urban deprivation manifest quite differently; both extremes are tough but it's easier to flood a compact inner city with additional funding and teachers. Teaching jobs are harder to get around here, but can be filled because so many people want to live in a beautiful area, and while house prices are high relative to average earnings, there are still some affordable options.

However, as my DC is now 25, I no longer have a legitimate interest in this.

That's why my friend had to take her kid out of private school.

Agreed. And it astonishes me how badly these people are reading the room and smacks of them not having a shred of empathy for people in genuine difficulties. The crass hand wringing about their little darlings having to mix with the great unwashed is, frankly getting old.

They will be blaming Starmer directly for his pointless attack with vat on schools! It’s his policy and it will achieve precisely nothing - the left are vultures when it comes to taxing people and it won’t stop there. I can see then going for universities after this.

You re just making stuff up.

A typical Tory who is scared witless you might have to pay a tiny bit more in tax but very happy to see state school children go without....... so you can keep your class sizes of 6 and 2 trips a year to Verbier.

All private schools have to do is increase classes to 7 or 8 and any surplus teachers can move to the state sector.

The Vat increase is very small compared to outrageous increases in fees over recent years..... yet indie numbers have gone UP.

‘Except they won't. If a state school is full, then it doesn't have to accept new pupils. I know my class sizes won't double because we don't have the physical space to fit any more desks in.’

ok so where do you propose those kids you are not accepting go?

@Alexandra2001 where are these private schools with six kids? This is hilarious.