How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

[pinklite]

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

So how does that work @Polishedshoesalways when there are approximately 7% of pupils who privately educated, not all children will be removed from private schools as some will be able to afford the increased costs and some costs will be absorbed by the schools who have been aware of thus issue for some time ?

Or are you taking the piss after reading posts on other threads, it is hard to tell.

Why would people bother to pay? The very essence of private schools are the small classes and individual attention.

There are ways that private schools can manage the situation, for example, they could reduce fees and increase class size numbers.

As noble giraffe says there isn’t capacity for the vast majority of state school class sizes to double. There wouldn’t be that many children to absorb anyway. Many wealthy parents will afford the extra cost and it’s a minority of children in private schools to begin with.

Honestly, @Polishedshoesalways people with children in state schools are not going to start to fret about this policy. The Tory Government have done far worse to state schools over the years!!

Because your suggested alternative is that they put their kid into a state school with classes of 60?

You can't try to scare state school parents of the impact of an influx of private school kids and at the same time suggest that private school parents wouldn't pay to keep their kids out of it.

There are over half a million children in private schools. I think we are going to see hundreds of thousands leave potentially. Teachers say they are already at breaking point as it is in the state sector, so it will be interesting to see how they manage the massive increases in work load and the situation that’s coming their way!

It’s not just the current children either but all of the future children that have not been considered in terms of financial planning. Anyone that thinks this policy will have little to no impact on the state school really have not thought this through!

Teachers say they are already at breaking point as it is in the state sector, so it will be interesting to see how they manage the massive increases in work load and the situation that’s coming their way!?

You don't seem to understand that the state schools that are full do not have to make room for them. They will go on waiting lists like any other in-year transfer or they will go to currently undersubscribed schools. Just like happens every year with state school applications. You do not get the school of your choice if there is no room in it.

If we also consider that sen provision is at breaking point - what happens when you add all of the once private children to the pressure?

school meals?
out of school care?

Its going to be a total shit show
AND
It will do nothing to address inequality, as the best private schools will become the most elitist expensive powerhouses in the country, if not the world.

So yes the policy fails to even achieve its most basic goal. inequality. It’s the politics of petty envy and will only widen the wealth divide.

I don't feel confident. Everyone was confident Brexit wouldn't happen, so confident many didn't even bother turning out and look where that led us

There is also the potential for private schools to become state schools. There have been private schools who have done it already.

The council are obliged by law to provide an education to every child, so if the schools are full - space will have to be created regardless. As you well know.

And you ought to know, but appear not to, that they don't create spaces by doubling class sizes. They add extra classes if needed.

However that is on the assumption that there are no places at all in the area. Private school parents should look at the undersubscribed schools nearby and decide if they will be happy with that before jumping ship.

Private schools may well find that they can run on less money than currently, when push comes to shove, though.

@Polishedshoesalways what’s your opinion on the current shit show in education. The best state schools have always been pretty elitist and just full of the kids of sharp elbowed mc parents. Affluent parents already play the system whether it be buying a house in a certain catchment area or discovering god. The grammars are already full of heavily tutored mc kids. Maybe if there is a huge exodus (which I doubt) it will shake schools up. It will change demographics of those undersubscribed schools. It will force governments to genuinely fund education, siphon money off to the struggling schools, who knows. All this frothing is so disingenuous,

@Polishedshoesalways perhaps those parents entering the state sector will choose to now lobby for better state school provision? They have the financial means to help put money into fundraising and PTA activities helping provide better resources and trips. It could ultimately, gadzooks, improve the situation for all children!

very rarely. The most likely is the school will be sold to private developers and the children are redirected to the nearest local state school. It’s happened three times here since the financial meltdown Labour created the last time they were in office. The private schools are full, and not obliged to expand to accommodate so our village school had to absorb the huge number. They didn’t even have the space to feed and cater for so many extra children, so cold lunches in the assembly hall was all that could be done.

Most schools are already at breaking pint with the COL expenses as it is! You really seem to have no idea.

@Polishedshoesalways whose fault is that ?

Oh dear god you don't know who you are talking to.

The financial meltdown Labour created? Are you referring to the Global Financial Crisis in 2008? I’m not hugely convinced it is Noblegiraffe who is the one with no idea..

Especially as she is a maths teacher (and very helpful when we had problems with a DC who has dyscalculia and GCSE back in the days when MN was all green fields.

That’s not going to happen, by extension you are saying rather offensively that state school parents cant lobby effectively enough. Private schools parents will not be fundraising for anything. They will be spending all of their hard earned money on bloody tutors so their children stand half a chance in the future.

I very much doubt those parents will be feeling very generous under a Labour government hostile towards them, raising taxes etc and no doubt will be looking at taking their skills and kids to a country where they can live comfortably.

Oh Jesus you really up on yourself! Do you know who I am? 😂😂😂😂

That you don't know who I am suggests you are a poster who hasn't particularly taken any interest in the state of state education up till now.

Class sizes won't double overnight as you claim.

In my town we have 2 state secondary schools, combined pupil number of 2600. In the next 3 towns the total is approximately 3750 ish. Lots of children.

There are 2 small private schools, one has 100 pupils and the other a similar number. Should they all jump ship which they won't then spread around the towns the number is miniscule.

I also think most people are worried about the NHS, social care, paying their mortgage, heating bills, food, petrol, transport costs, daily living and not about private school fees. I think the people worried about that are in a very small bubble. 🤔

Turnout for the referendum was 72% - much, much higher than for any recent general election.

However, that will definitely change when class sizes double over night with the exodus.

Typical Tory hyperbole and grasp of mathematics.😆