How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

[pinklite]

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

I could not agree more.

I fully understand your point. I'm just the 'wrong' kind of feminist and I disagree with you. I care about gender and I want the Cass report implemented. I am opposed to men in women's sport, women's prisons, women's hospital wards. I want a ban on puberty blockers. However, I am also aware that there are many, many, many other problems which affect women disproportionately; insecure work, poor housing, council cuts, dismantling of the NHS, workers' rights. In other words, when it comes to women, I don't have blinkers on.

Yeah, I was shocked at my own sister saying she would vote conservative over that. Maybe it's more women with little girls it bothers, she said that was what it was about, that she never wanted to have to pull her daughter out of a female toilet because a man was in there

Who has labelled you the wrong kind of feminist?

I agree AllProperTeaIsTheft

I think there has always been an element of this on the left, for some time people have said they felt ignored by the sanctimonious left who have often been to keen to tell people what they experience rather than listen to their experiences just now with social media they are louder.

under Corbyn and twats that led the party it exploded and well we all know what happened. Disliking Corbyn and voicing your option that he would never become PM confirmed meant to some you were a closet Tory

i don’t like Tory policies (or most of them) or how that often operate but I do not judge someone on voting Tory

But at times I do not like Labour policies or how they operate but I prefer them to be in power

Oh come on.

The moment you go on either of the feminist boards and admit that gender isn't the only issue that matters to you in terms of feminism, you're accused of being a man, an MRA and yes, not a feminist. The same applies on political threads when you admit that actually you think the Labour party is likely to do better for women than the Tories because - hey! - there are other issues affecting women beyond gender.

I don't mind the accusations - they've become a badge of honour. I don't want to be associated with single issue voters of any kind, whether gender, environment, benefits - the picture is so much bigger than any one thing.

I have found the opposite.

My criticism of the Tory government's record on women has resulted in me being called a Labour shill (most recently on this thread), TRA, MRA, Handmaiden and all manner of misogynist insults over the past few years.

It has been pretty shit, but I'm a middle aged, feminist, WC single mother from Belfast, I've experienced much worse. Still shit though.😒

Zahawi wasn't being investigated for possible council tax fraud as well.

pointythings
Electoral Calculus does aggregate polling and has been right, as stated, in 8 out of the past 9 elections. The one they called wrong was 1992, when the polls were very tight.

Have you looked at their website?

The headline prediction for the May 2015 election was not accurate. The final prediction was for a hung parliament with Labour/SNP as the largest bloc. The actual result was a small Conservative majority.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord_15errors.html

The headline prediction for the June 2017 election was not accurate. The final prediction was for a Conservative majority government with a majority of 66. The actual result was that the Conservatives were short eight seats of a majority.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord_17errors.html

@Clavinova 2015 and 2017 were not enormously wrong though. For the Tories to even get a hung parliament this time round, the polls would have to be mountainously and uniquely wrong. And of course methodology is continually refined.

But if it comforts you to think the Tories are in with a chance, fill your boots. It's actually a good thing to talk down Labour; complacency is the enemy, people need to feel they have to go out and vote if they want change. So keep up the good work.

I have not seen this in the scenario that you have outlined.

Then you have seriously not been paying attention. I'm not the only poster on this thread who's been accused of being a man, an MRA, a TRA etc. just for refusing to narrow my feminism down to one issue. The moment you respond to one of the 'Labour are so bad for women because gender' threads, out it comes. Every. Single. Time.

Maybe you've been lucky. More likely you're a victim of your own confirmation bias.

I don't really care about the trans thing either. Not that much to influence how I vote

If by "the trans thing" you mean the erosion of women's rights and the removal of women only spaces and the removal of single sex facilities for girls then I for one care very much about that but I still won't vote Tory for it.

I'd rather get them out then carry on fighting for women's sex based rights to be protected.

Anyone who thinks the Tories are the answer re women's sex based protections is a fool.

noblegiraffe
Who wants to vote for the party of sewage in the water ... and endless sleaze and sex scandals?

Labour are not exactly short on sleaze and sex scandals - 2022/2023:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/01/labour-suspends-mp-geraint-davies-sexual-harassment-allegations
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/10/labour-defends-complaints-process-after-three-year-delay-in-harassment-case
https://news.sky.com/story/former-labour-mp-paul-clark-jailed-over-child-abuse-images-12879331
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/former-labour-peer-lord-ahmed-has-sex-abuse-sentence-halved-6kn0bd8mn
https://news.sky.com/story/former-labour-mp-jared-omara-jailed-for-four-years-over-fraudulent-cocaine-expenses-12806834
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/21/labour-mp-faces-suspension-unwanted-sexual-advances-chris-matheson
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/19/mike-hill-ex-labour-mp-compensation-woman-sexually-assaulted

Not so good on sewage either:

October 2009 UK faces European court for allowing raw sewage to enter Thames
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/oct/09/river-thames-pollution-european-union

Panorama
September 2009
Britain's Dirty Beaches
Sand, sea and sewage
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00mg5cg

June 2008 Water scare hits 250,000 after tests find bug in supply
The number of confirmed cases of cryptosporidiosis has risen to 22 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/northamptonshire/7530580.stm
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2008/jun/26/health.water

The trans thing has never affected me or my life. I almost want sanitary facilities to say penises left and vaginas to the right. But my late DMIL, seeing out her final weeks of double incontence in late stages of dementia, would still prefer a female carer to assist her. It was for her,about dignity.

Agreed.

My 'Portillo moments' would definitely include Penny 'TWAW' Mordaunt and Caroline 'TWAW' Nokes. Both are influential Conservatives (within certain groups of their colleagues), unfortunately, and - to paraphrase the old song - not as smart as they like to think they are.

Have you seen Keir Starmer's video message - he sounded very sincere;

https://www.thepinknews.com/2021/06/10/keir-starmer-labour-party-gender-recognition-act-self-id-trans-people-pride/

Well now that Rishi has announced that his big idea is bringing back national service I think we can all be confident that he's doomed.

I think Sunak's given up. And no wonder, looking at the polls. All starmer has to do now is not die and he'll be PM by the 5th. Even if he ran about Downing Street billy bollock naked, or squatted and curled one out on the front bench, or flicked a bogey at the king live on TV, he's not going to lose.

I don't think it'll be 1997 proportions but they will win.

For the self id issue, hopefully they'll concentrate on other more urgent stuff to start with which gives a bit of breathing space for everyone to realise the implications of the Cass review. We need to get labour in though. We haven't got a hope without them. The tories are destroying everything. It's a question of survival now.

@GordonBlue I hope you are right. This is exactly how I feel. I'm old enough to remember pre 1997 and the difference Labour made and I just hope they can do the same again. I do worry about women's rights and trans issues but no party is good for women right now and it's not going to be their first priority.

@RobinStrike that 1997 government was the best we had in my lifetime. I don't think this one can be the same because there are massive differences now wrt the economy and our place in the world. No government could ever achieve that again and for that reason it feels different. I think all of our expectations are lower. Mine certainly are. Right now I just want a government that isn't actively printing money and lining its own personal pockets. I don't think labour can achieve all that much. But they can hopefully make things a little more tolerable, a little more equitable.

That's how I feel too. I do wish they would try to claw back some of the money doled out to Michelle a one and all the other cronies during covid too, and maybe do a bit of a reset in creating a Parliament where the Nolan standards are observed.

Oh God that would be marvellous but sadly I think that money is gone. And I genuinely do feel sad about that. We are facing tough times as a country. Wrt standards, I am heartened by the number of labour MPs who do actually give a shit and want to do the right thing but yes it would be good if they explicitly set out their stall on that basis.