How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

[pinklite]

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

Very astute summary. Personally I think she’s going nowhere. I imagine if MN had existed in the 1960s/70s Barbara Castle might have attracted similar venom.

Previous Tory voter here and I can't see any way they can win. I'm not voting for them, honestly I don't seem to agree with any party.

I hope Labour win with a majority so there isn't a hung parliament.

There are so many things to fix in this country.

Are you seriously comparing the intelligent astute Barbara Castle with Angela Rayner

being outspoken. does not equate to being a good politician 🙄

I do not think Corbyn shall win his seat

He should have been an independent years ago but being a Labour MP served him well even though for the majority of his career he worked agains the party is represented

good riddance and to think people really believed he would be PM

Yes I am. I think Rayner is both intelligent and astute, she wouldn’t have been able to overcome the appalling start she had in life otherwise. It stuns me that women are so prejudiced against someone who’s done so incredibly well because her language isn’t “ladylike”.

I hope not but fear that he will. I have family members in that area who think he's great but they live very much in a rich, liberal bubble with opinions to match.

Don't throw that at women who are not impressed with Rayner FFS. She is far Left and a TRA - ever thought that these may be the reasons that women aren't keen? She's hardly a bloody feminist is she?

It’s hard on the face of it to see that Labour will win 121 new seats (and not lose any that they already hold). It seems like such a big number.

She’s my kind of feminist. I appreciate my definition is rather broader than yours.

A feminist that puts men first?! Good for you then. 🙄

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/11/angela-rayner-trans-charter-attacked-feminist-group-apology/

And then you remember what a catastrophic mess the Tories have made of the country.

Who wants to vote for the party of sewage in the water, non-functioning public services and endless sleaze and sex scandals? The party that gave us Liz Truss as Prime Minister destroying any remaining idea that the Tories are good with the economy.

And then you wonder why anyone would vote for more of that.

Have you watched Rayner being questioned by journalists

she isn’t in the same league as BC and that is nothing to do with ladylike language

I'm confident that we will end up with a large Labour majority. People like to go on about shy Tories, but I'm going with the polling organisation which has called 8 out of the past 9 elections correctly. They called Brexit correctly, they called Boris' large majority in 2019 correctly, they were correct in 2010 and 2015.

I'm also going with the bookies, who have a track record of being right.

Both of these groups are calling for a large Labour majority - anything else is fearful or wishful thinking.

We’ve been here before rhoufh haven’t we. And when they call it will be in at least 5 weeks time, not now.

No, we haven't been here before with a massive majority predicted for a Labour government that turned out to be a Tory win.

Yes, that is a thing that has literally never happened.

People picked up on the fact that the Brexit polling showing a close result wasn't really picked up on by the bookies or commentariat, and have added that two and two together to make 47.

No, we really haven't. People like to forget that the polling in the runup to the Brexit referendum was fully within the margin of error - and we got a 52/48 split, which means the polls nailed it.

Electoral Calculus does aggregate polling and has been right, as stated, in 8 out of the past 9 elections. The one they called wrong was 1992, when the polls were very tight.

No incumbent government has ever turned round a poll deficit like the current one. It hasn't happened and we haven't been here before.

We shall see - still plenty of time for things not to go according to plan.

Yes. Including for the Tories. They're polling in the high 20s at the moment. No iron rule saying it'll stay that high!

@SofaThrow I’m intrigued by how you use the word liberal. I mean the opposite is authoritarian, so is that how you think things should head ?
What’s wrong with being liberal (or woke which is what I think you mean). Is it the concept that we have women’s rights, gay rights, equality, abortion ? Isn’t it a good thing that wealthy people agree with a level playing field for all and vote for parties that strive to make that possible ? You’re also suggesting that people who aren’t rich aren’t ‘liberal’ either which is a bit presumptuous… like we’re all knuckle dragging racists.

@Sunnyandsilly I’m sadly not that confident of a labour win but they’ve had a big lead for 2 years I think. Are you happy with the Conservatives in government or is it just a matter of ‘this is my team and I vote for them however shite they are‘ ?

The more I read @SofaThrow ’s post you see how mixed up she/he is. Bangs on about people being rich liberal elites but doesn’t like working class women who’ve pulled themselves up in the good old Tory way by her bootstraps. Goes on about women’s rights but is happy to support an MP like Miriam Cates who is far from feminist.

Not confident enough. I think people are stupid enough to vote them back in for another round of race to the bottom.

Not picking on you specifically but I've heard a lot of people say this.

It's Brexit all over again, isn't it? If your side doesn't win it's because people are stupid.

I think there's a dangerous lack of self reflection doing on here.

If you think the answer is so obvious (that we should remain in the EU, that we need to get the Tories out, whatever) and people don't vote for that, we need to examine the reasons why in more detail rather than writing the electorate off as morons.

Many people think elections are lost, not won. So if Labour do lose this election, it's more useful to analyse what they needed to do but failed, in order to win. Because there will be reasons why people didn't vote for them.