How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

[pinklite]

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

In two weeks time I imagine!

Well if your foresight is as reliable as your memory we should be fine. The pp said polls already show support is falling.

It’s possible both are true blossom.

This is why Michael Gove stood down.

He had an 18,000 majority in 2019.

I understand Michael Gove has been suffering from burn out and stress from his divorce. I don’t blame him for stepping away. He’s probably had more than enough.

AND he was probably going to lose his seat because the Tories are on course for disaster.

It's a balancing act financially. If you stand and lose then you get a bigger redundancy payout than if you stand down of your own free will.

But presumably Gove is comfortably off, as is his ex, and will be able to get good jobs easily - he's well regarded for competence (yes I can hear your hollow laughs, but by comparison with his peer group he really is) - so he can afford to not take the extra money, and have the benefit of certainty.

It must be a nightmare for a younger, less well known, MP standing on the stage in a nailbiter waiting to have the next five years of your life decided on the toss of a coin. In a funny sort of way it's easier if you're guaranteed to lose so you can plan for the future.

Or maybe not.

More than enough marching powder definitely.

I am 90% certain they will win. If they don't, then the people who voted conservatives need to give their head a little shake and go back into the dark room for a lie down 🤣

Or carry on with a recovery and a strong economy.

😂

I suspect that Michael Gove's assessment of the situation is more accurate than yours.

"Labour isn’t fronting up with any policies, only saying they won’t do the pledges"

Sunnyandsilly when has Labour said they 'won't do the pledges'??? I haven't heard or read this anywhere - apart from your thread.

Have you worked out how you will cope if the Conservatives win?

Confident

but I do not think Labour shall win a huge majority even in 1997 Labour’s lead did not translate as well from the polls to votes by quite some margin. I think we are likely to get a low turn out and possibly a gain for smaller parties

we are a Conservative country that occasionally votes Labour this always has to be kept in mind and the Tories will absolutely fight to hold on to power they are not going into this election hoping to stop Labour winning a large majority they are going in to win

I think Labour have to be very careful how they campaign and Starmer is aware of this who shall be at the forefront is himself and Rachel Reeves who is already quoting sensible spending with rather Thatcher like comments

I agree, we can see it swinging already. People venting their anger when no ge is one thing, when there is a ge bottom line is people will be eyeing up starmer and raynor and trying to imagine the pair of them running the country, and not liking the mental pictures it generates.

Agree and this is despite Starmer maing her keep a low profile atm. He has obviously told her to shut her gob until they win as she is a very unpopular figure.

Oh mate, you said 'if'.

You should have said 'when'.

Even your heart isn't in it.

she is a very unpopular figure.

Debateable. A lot of people have great respect for her achievements.

He's not necessarily stepping down because he's definitely going to lose. It might be because he can't take the uncertainty of knowing that he might lose or might win.

And of course he now knows that he's never going to be Prime Minister, and will probably never hold one of the Great Offices of State. It would sap your motivation a bit for someone that ambitious.

I think the people who'll stay will be the ones in their thirties and forties who still fancy their chances of power in the 2030s, and the ones in their early sixties who are too young to retire but would rather sit it out in the back benches than start a new job.

Not any I've ever met apart from my Momentum family member who thinks she's brilliant.

You haven’t met everyone in the UK, have you?

Well no one is saying ‘when’ Labour win, because we all know the risks and when it comes to it will the country have the stomach for such a big gamble?

I think not.

100% theyre out. No way will they get in unless Labour massively cock up with their manifesto. But I don't think it will be as big a landslide as predicted. If you look at MN as a benchmark, it's easy to think labour are going to win with huge majority, but I know lots in real life, usually vote tory, but arent voting for them this time and choosing alternative parties to labour. You won't find many die hard tories who will switch their vote to Labour.

Have you?