How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

[pinklite]

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

We also had Liz Truss putting a wrecking ball to the economy "at last a true Tory budget".

And austerity which was a massive con the way in which was applied and caused more problems than it solved (police numbers, cuts to mental health and many frontline services).

by honouring an old tradition that stretched back to Churchill in the 1930sand the Tory chancellor Reginald Maudling, who bounced down the steps of the Treasury in 1964 to tell Jim Callaghan: “Sorry to leave it in such a mess, old cock.”

Yes Liz Truss, backed by the Tory party and most MPs, wrecked the UKs pensions and Bonds sectors, adding billions to the UKs debt interest repayments.

The BoE had to print an extra £65 Billion in order to steady the markets, leading to the UK having even higher inflation than we should have had.

It's a longstanding joke for outgoing governments. It applies more now. The economy is a lot worse than it was in 2010.

The Tories have written the same note themselves in the past.

And while there's mitigation now (Covid etc) there was a global financial crash in 2008 which affected the economy. The Tories blamed all the economy problems on Labour, so what's good for the goose.

None of liz truss’s polices were actually put in.

They weren't even budgeted for or costed.

And for all that, what was Truss masterplan? Tax cuts and the neoliberal con trick of trickle down economics.

Thank Christ. Just the prospect brought the economy to its knees.

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/liam-byrne-apology-letter-there-is-no-money-labour-general-election

Thank fuck for that.... imagine how much worse it could have been?

...and given her support in the party and that she is standing, she could become PM again......

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/liam-byrne-apology-letter-there-is-no-money-labour-general-election

by honouring an old tradition that stretched back to Churchill in the 1930sand the Tory chancellor Reginald Maudling, who bounced down the steps of the Treasury in 1964 to tell Jim Callaghan: “Sorry to leave it in such a mess, old cock.”

This is all getting a bit parallel universe but in that case that would be 27 years of labour :)
I quite liked all the Labour leaders from Blair to Corbyn for varying reasons (probably more than some of them like each other), but the only one of them I think would have stopped GRR would be Blair.

Nothing would surprise me. They don't deserve to win as apart from anything else, they are burnt out. However, I see nothing inspiring from Labour. A few of the top team are credible, ie Streeting and Reeves but the party is still packed with Corbynites who will all surface on the day after elections. Also I think they will do well in Scotland but lose a lot of Muslim voters after taking the right stance on Gaza.

I still recall 1992 and waking up to find John Major having won and things are far more unpredicable now

I think maybe the majority won't be as big as some are hoping but there is no chance the Conservatives will win. The party is in complete disarray. They lost a lot of their more experienced politicians at the 2019 election as they stood down after Brexit and now countless more are standing down. They are going to be reduced to scraping the bottom of the deepest barrel to field candidates.

I live in a true blue seat and polls suggest that Labour are within a couple of percentage points of taking the seat. That was before the existing MP announced she was standing down the day after the election was announced. I know social media is unreliable but there are lots of comments from die-hard Tory voters saying they're going to vote Reform (who stand no chance of winning the seat but will split the Conservative vote).

I think the aftermath of the election will be interesting to see what happens to the Party. Wondering if they will try to lurch even further to the right to or try to regain some of the centre ground.

Yeah I’m not sure to be honest. Labour isn’t fronting up with any policies, only saying they won’t do the pledges and might put uni fees up , starmer and raynor aren’t a team many people have confidence in when it comes to running the country, polls are already showing labour support dropping. From a landslide to a win, and it’s just started, it will be a long six weeks and a foolish person who puts money on any party.

More confident than I was three days ago. Disastrous start to their campaign. Whoever decided to have a teetotaller visit a brewery and then the Titanic quarter should be sacked.

It’s bigger than this kind of silliness. It’s our future, our kids future hanging in the balance.

polls are already showing labour support dropping.

Are they? Which ones? Not much of a drop here. Do you have a more recent one?

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

I am sensing a big shift here too. People have started to take a long cold look at Starmer, and particularly Raynor. Can we actually imagine these two running our country? Really? Because they just don’t look up to the job quite frankly.

https://theweek.com/politics/angela-rayner-tax-fraud

There's nobody left in the Tory party in any case . They've all scarpered. 🤣

I don't think its possible to underestimate the stupidy of people BUT I am pretty confident The Tories will lose and we will have a Labour Government

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

This is AMAZING. What a stupid argument, that Rishi, who has seen dozens of his MPs say that they will be stepping down at the next election before he called it would then tell even more of them, including big, experienced names like Gove and Redwood to fuck off giving the (accurate) impression of rats fleeing a sinking ship and leave him scrabbling around for even enough candidates to field.

There is zero chance that Rishi told Gove to resign because he thought he was making the party look unpopular, and 100% chance Gove resigned because he could see which way the wind was blowing and didn't want to be humiliated on election night. His seat looks like it will go to the Lib Dems.

“Sensing” isn’t enough. Where’s the poll that shows Labour support falling?

No, things are far more predictable now than they were in 1992. In 1992 polls were split between Labour and the Tories winning. The problem there was people not looking at the data properly.

Now all the polls have a massive lead for Labour.