How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

[pinklite]

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

I heard something recently that the chances that we will get cancer during our lives is one in two and the chances of winning the lottery are one in 14 million. And yet we believe we won't get cancer but might just win the lottery.

And some people tell themselves that public services don't matter because they won't get Ill or experience crime. And their children and grandchildren are bright enough to do well at school and if not, they can go to st custards so they don't mix with the bash street kids. So they vote for lower taxation. And pot holes. And a broken NHS. And schools that resemble war zones. Because they think paying less tax in an economy that isn't growing is the best thing.

I’m not sure I follow

Usually about 2 - 3 weeks into the campaign, so should see something around the middle of June

Is anyone who posted that they thought it might be tory majority or a hung parliament having second thoughts now that all those big name Tories are quitting?

No, the party needs fresh talent. Many of the ‘big names’ have been in politics for decades and are old now. Ready to do something new.

Labour are not going to win a majority. They don’t have the trust of the people.

Best case is a hung parliament or a slim conservative win.

I think the opposite, these are unpopular tories leaving, if anything it will benefit them. The old unpopular guard leaving. My opinion is sunak has asked them to go, and allowed them the dignity of resigning, that’s why it’s happening immediately after the announcement, and they are all being really nice about it.

To be frank I think that may happen.
I have noticed that Akshata has been quietly collected up our ornaments from the flat and putting them in a shoe-box. And there is a big bag of frozen prawns in the freezer - we don't eat prawns - I do hope there isn't some underhand plan to stuff them behind the radiators. 😬

I'd often say never underestimate the English's love for the Tories.

However, even they've had it with them now. No political party can go on forever in power. The Tories have never won all the time - a few terms in and then the public give the other lot a go.

Err had we had 14 years of Labour, Gordon Brown would have been PM for much of the last 14 years, then David Miliband perhaps.

Corbyn and McDonnel would have never made the front bench.

Given the Tories made getting a GRC a certainty, cut fees from £140 to £5, and despite 14 years have wrecked female only spaces, its hard to imagine how much more anyone could embrace Gender Ideology.

Oh and lets not mention making rape an almost non criminal offence.

Yes we had 14 years of Labour and it left us bankrupt!

Again!

And again.

I can see a big shift once people start to consider how a Labour government will actually perform - they will worry about their competency with good reason.

Who can forget the note that was left in the tin, there is no money left. That sums it up for me.

Oh not the bloody note again. The one in the tradition started by outgoing Tory Chancellor Maudling - “Sorry, old cock to leave it in such a mess”. That note?

You re just lying now, we had a global financial crash BUT despite that, the UK was in a far better place in 2010 than it is now....

National debt in 2010 = 65% now its 98%.

I agree, we can see it swinging already. People venting their anger when no ge is one thing, when there is a ge bottom line is people will be eyeing up starmer and raynor and trying to imagine the pair of them running the country, and not liking the mental pictures it generates.

starmer has done the right thing, he’s now being honest he won’t put any of his pledges in, they were never going in, it was just opposition posturing, that’s actually a positive. Indicating he will put uni tuition fees up, won’t be, although kicking vat on private schools into the long grass will give most folks a feeling of relief, as the state sector will be protected, he now needs to come up with his policies, as he’s sitting empty handed. Yes being honest the pledges were all bullshit is good, he needed to do it immediately. But he does need to have actual polices in their place. And right now he doesn’t.

And Labour come in after long tory rule where public services have been decimated which forces Labour to invest to get them working again. Then Labour get voted out, Tories bring in austerity which we all suffer for and makes the economy worse anyway. Rinse and repeat.

The Tories had that one perfect storm in the 80s where they had the windfall of north sea oil and selling off the family silver with privatisation; and what did we really have to show for it? A minority got very rich but as a country very little.

How did the the Tories, Liz Truss "perform"?

Yes but we had Covid , furrow and the Ukraine war which impacted energy, the goverment to be fair was completely honest about the cost of Covid and how we’d have to pay for it. Even starmer is saying that was the issue.

Furrow?

Ignoring the myth about that stupid note, as I said above Labour are forced to spend heavily on public services because after long Tory rule they're basically wrecked and nothing works. The Tories invest in nothing that doesn't make them money.

Yes and with six weeks to go no one has any idea whatsoever of what labours policies might even be.

It isn’t a myth it is true

Nah if you say the Global financial Crash was Labours fault, then the Tories caused Covid and started the UKraine war....

See how unfair you are being?

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/liam-byrne-apology-letter-there-is-no-money-labour-general-election