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General election 2024

See all MNHQ comments on this thread

How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

1000 replies

pinklite · 23/05/2024 23:04

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
31
SJ1991x · 24/05/2024 14:11

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 14:02

I've previously voted for the Greens too, but they're in the bonkers category with the Lib Dems now. They don't even seem to care about climate change anymore.

True. It’s hella depressing. We have no decent options.

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 14:13

TooBigForMyBoots · 24/05/2024 14:07

It is clear that you no longer live in the UK.

The Greens are not the only small party standing. Reform UK say they will have candidates in most constituencies this time round. The Workers Party and SDP are also standing in more constituencies. Independents are doing well, so one of them might suit you better. Many, many Tory MPs are standing down, I think it's nearly 100 of them. This is a fucking nightmare for the Tories and you might find they put Caroline Nokes, Alicia Kearns or Jamie Wallis into your constituency.😱

There were a lot of candidates in many constituencies last time but my own was limited to the main three. As you say, I'll have to wait for the options to be finalised but I think the smaller parties just aren't interested in fielding candidates in my area.

Oh for the chance to vote for the Monster Raving Loony Party! 😀

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 14:15

bozzabollix · 24/05/2024 14:09

To the hysterical from the hard of thinking. I’d love to know the reason behind your thoughts, as to why a party who have systematically made life worse for women in their many years of governance can all of a sudden make women’s lives better just through this one single issue?

If my past acquaintance has legal right as a woman what actual practical effect will that have? Would it be as significant as say women having access to childcare (the Tories have run down funding to childcare so many have closed)? Women giving birth safely in a fully staffed and resourced NHS? Women being able to earn as much as men, not being held back as we all are by having children?

You might think I’m hard of thinking but I’m also a pragmatist. We need practical policies as women to help us. Personally if the legal definition of women include a few people with dicks we might be treated a bit better (and I’m only being partly flippant there).

Your single issue isn’t enough to fuck over the whole country for. No way.

Personally I’m happy I never had any kind of gender confusion, it’s a long and unhappy path and people generally have a horrible time with it. Making a massive issue over the small minority who suffer it is just bloody cruel tbh.

Yes but why can't Labour just get a grip over this issue?

Then I'm sure most of us who are conflicted over this would vote for them in a heartbeat.

Why the hell are they prioritising a tiny minority over the majority?

It just makes no sense to me.

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 14:15

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 13:52

As others have pointed out, it's not just about "trans women". This is a really simplistic way of viewing things. And I think it is where Labour have gone wrong, actually. Too many of them think it's just about "being kind".

It is about whether women fundamentally exist as a political category. We will always exist as a biological category, and we will always have our own unique experiences and needs which are relevant to us and not to men. But if there is no word for us, no recognition in law that we exist on that basis, we cannot organise in our own self interest.

We have no single sex spaces. All our toilets, changing rooms, rape counselling groups, hospital wards, prison wings, ALL of them are now mixed sex. Because if a trans woman can walk into those spaces, so can any man. There is no way to distinguish between them, either physically or in law. So all the safeguards that single sex spaces were intended to create just fall away.

Opportunities for women and girls disappear. Biological males can take places on all women shortlists, compete in our sports. You may think sport is a niche issue, particularly in a cost of living crisis, but it has such an impact, particularly for children. Children who play sport are healthier, fitter, more confident, they gain leadership skills, they have experiences they would not otherwise have. These skills and experiences help them access better opportunities in the adult world by giving them more confidence to achieve things and more strings to their bow. It makes them that little bit more likely to achieve great things (not just in sport but in all areas of life). And girls already do less sport than boys. Girls already quit earlier, because they aren't encouraged, because they are embarrassed about their bodies, because it's not seen as a girl thing. If you allow boys into girls' sports you undermine the whole system and give girls even less reason to participate and to achieve their potential, when girls need it more than boys do.

Then of course there's the impact on our children generally. Why on earth would we teach them that whether you are a girl or a boy is a matter of identity, not biology? That it is something you choose? That it depends on whether you choose to perform feminine stereotypes or masculine ones? Why are we teaching gender non conforming, autistic and gay children to fear puberty? Why are we encouraging them to believe they need to change their healthy bodies to match their personalities? This is absolutely horrific stuff.

And finally, boundaries. If you teach your daughters that they have to be OK with boys in their spaces and sports, that they don't have the right to privacy and dignity, that they don't have the right to say no to boys who say they are girls, that they have to give them the benefit of the doubt, how the hell are you going to teach her about stranger danger, or the importance of consent to sex? You've already taught her that her consent doesn't matter the moment a boy says he is a girl or a man says he is a woman.

The ramifications of all of this really can't be understated. It's already gone much too far, and I worry that if the next party of government takes it even further, the damage is going to be impossible to undo.

I'm not saying don't vote Labour.

People are clearly desperate and we all have to vote the way we think is best.

But please don't dismiss this as a fringe issue, because it's not.

And if any of what I have said here troubles you in any way, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE write to your Labour candidate about it.

Let's make it impossible to say nobody cares about this and it never comes up on the doorstep. Make it clear that you do care and you want them to listen. Because they almost certainly will be in government in two months' time, and it is in everyone's interests for them to do a good job.

"We have no single sex spaces. All our toilets, changing rooms, rape counselling groups, hospital wards, prison wings, ALL of them are now mixed sex. Because if a trans woman can walk into those spaces, so can any man. There is no way to distinguish between them, either physically or in law. So all the safeguards that single sex spaces were intended to create just fall away."

Most hospital wards ARE mixed sex, I've only ever stayed in one where it wasn't - the Post Partum Ward. I'd assume the only wards where they are separated would be Gynaecology.

There are nany transwomen who would pass, not every transwoman started out as a 6"4. Many different body types exist. Just because some don't pass in your eyes doesn't mean none do. And considering there are many women who wouldn't pass as a woman due to certain characteristics.

But once again, you HAVE NOT ANSWERED THE QUESTION. At this point, i half assume I'm talking to a bot as you are not answering?

Yes, they are 'niche' issues. I am not saying they do not happen, what i mean is in the grand scheme of things it doesn't affect a high % unlike other issues.

How many women are pro athletes VS how many women are raped/sexually assaulted?

And finally, boundaries. If you teach your daughters that they have to be OK with boys in their spaces and sports, that they don't have the right to privacy and dignity, that they don't have the right to say no to boys who say they are girls, that they have to give them the benefit of the doubt, how the hell are you going to teach her about stranger danger, or the importance of consent to sex? You've already taught her that her consent doesn't matter the moment a boy says he is a girl or a man says he is a woman.

Consent is a multi layered thing. But consent to a changing room at a shop vs consent to sex are vastly different things. Consent to sex is more than just about their gender, identity or someone's feelings. I personally don't think communal spaces are EVER a good idea not because of transpeople but because as you said PRIVACY, I don't agree that I should be ok with someone seeing me naked/in a state of undress by mere virtue of us both being born with the same genitals.

So no, i don't agree that consent in that regards effects their feelings of consent of sex. I will allow my child the privacy from ALL where possible until she can make her own decisions. 'Boys' in their sports is not the same as 'boys' in their facilities, different outcomes for each and different risk factors.

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 14:18

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 14:15

"We have no single sex spaces. All our toilets, changing rooms, rape counselling groups, hospital wards, prison wings, ALL of them are now mixed sex. Because if a trans woman can walk into those spaces, so can any man. There is no way to distinguish between them, either physically or in law. So all the safeguards that single sex spaces were intended to create just fall away."

Most hospital wards ARE mixed sex, I've only ever stayed in one where it wasn't - the Post Partum Ward. I'd assume the only wards where they are separated would be Gynaecology.

There are nany transwomen who would pass, not every transwoman started out as a 6"4. Many different body types exist. Just because some don't pass in your eyes doesn't mean none do. And considering there are many women who wouldn't pass as a woman due to certain characteristics.

But once again, you HAVE NOT ANSWERED THE QUESTION. At this point, i half assume I'm talking to a bot as you are not answering?

Yes, they are 'niche' issues. I am not saying they do not happen, what i mean is in the grand scheme of things it doesn't affect a high % unlike other issues.

How many women are pro athletes VS how many women are raped/sexually assaulted?

And finally, boundaries. If you teach your daughters that they have to be OK with boys in their spaces and sports, that they don't have the right to privacy and dignity, that they don't have the right to say no to boys who say they are girls, that they have to give them the benefit of the doubt, how the hell are you going to teach her about stranger danger, or the importance of consent to sex? You've already taught her that her consent doesn't matter the moment a boy says he is a girl or a man says he is a woman.

Consent is a multi layered thing. But consent to a changing room at a shop vs consent to sex are vastly different things. Consent to sex is more than just about their gender, identity or someone's feelings. I personally don't think communal spaces are EVER a good idea not because of transpeople but because as you said PRIVACY, I don't agree that I should be ok with someone seeing me naked/in a state of undress by mere virtue of us both being born with the same genitals.

So no, i don't agree that consent in that regards effects their feelings of consent of sex. I will allow my child the privacy from ALL where possible until she can make her own decisions. 'Boys' in their sports is not the same as 'boys' in their facilities, different outcomes for each and different risk factors.

Wow.

It doesn't matter how many.

Even one woman raped in a women only space or one girl deprived of her sporting victory is too many.

I don't care how many trans women you think "pass". It's not relevant. You can't make law and policy on the basis of an individual's self assessment of whether they "pass" or not.

You let one male in, you let them all in.

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 14:22

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 14:18

Wow.

It doesn't matter how many.

Even one woman raped in a women only space or one girl deprived of her sporting victory is too many.

I don't care how many trans women you think "pass". It's not relevant. You can't make law and policy on the basis of an individual's self assessment of whether they "pass" or not.

You let one male in, you let them all in.

and once again, you don't answer questions. or Read. I clearly state i don't think shared facilities are a good thing, even within the same gender?

Just remember, men already despise us and hate us so much, they don't need to become trans to have access to us. They do it anyway BLATANTLY. Because they know they're going to get away with it!!!!!!!
Maybe sort out the unsolved rapes and assaults and actually prosecute the perpetrators with actual sentences and they may defer the ones who want to become trans so they'll be in our changing rooms to rape us?

Have a great time hating trans women so much you make life worse for ALL WOMEN. You've played right into their hands.

Jennywren2000 · 24/05/2024 14:23

Pretty confident that Labour will win, but not because of social media.

People only ever declare their position publicly if they’re supporting Labour, so you never know who is voting Conservative from social media.

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 14:24

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 14:22

and once again, you don't answer questions. or Read. I clearly state i don't think shared facilities are a good thing, even within the same gender?

Just remember, men already despise us and hate us so much, they don't need to become trans to have access to us. They do it anyway BLATANTLY. Because they know they're going to get away with it!!!!!!!
Maybe sort out the unsolved rapes and assaults and actually prosecute the perpetrators with actual sentences and they may defer the ones who want to become trans so they'll be in our changing rooms to rape us?

Have a great time hating trans women so much you make life worse for ALL WOMEN. You've played right into their hands.

I know men already do these things to us. Why make it easier for them?

Coldsore · 24/05/2024 14:25

Labour will win, but not because they deserve to. They will basically win because people hate the Tories, and SNP, and because the SNP voters will defect to labour, and the Tory voters will defect to Reform. They’ve done fuck all to deserve a win, bar existing.

Starmer is uninspiring on every level, and they don’t have any clear policies. The trans issue is concerning and they just make huge promises without any sort of thought process - eg the VAT one.

I will vote for Tory but I won’t feel good about it, because they are also pretty shit and uninspiring. I just think labour are worse and it’s as clear as mud what voting for them is, other than just “not Tory”.

but btw I don’t think labour will get the landslide people are dancing around in anticipation of. Small majority or hung parliament.

lol at a PP describing Corbyn as a “visionary”. Anyone can be a visionary - it requires imagination without any ability to execute.

WoshPank · 24/05/2024 14:30

Maybe sort out the unsolved rapes and assaults and actually prosecute the perpetrators with actual sentences and they may defer the ones who want to become trans so they'll be in our changing rooms to rape us?

What does that even mean?

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 14:33

WoshPank · 24/05/2024 14:30

Maybe sort out the unsolved rapes and assaults and actually prosecute the perpetrators with actual sentences and they may defer the ones who want to become trans so they'll be in our changing rooms to rape us?

What does that even mean?

I think it means that if prosecution and conviction rates for rape and sexual assault improve, male predators won't bother exploiting loopholes in the law to gain easier access to potential victims.

WoshPank · 24/05/2024 14:35

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 14:33

I think it means that if prosecution and conviction rates for rape and sexual assault improve, male predators won't bother exploiting loopholes in the law to gain easier access to potential victims.

Ah ok. Rather an optimistic take. Predators take advantage of loopholes. Letting males into female spaces is a loophole.

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 14:37

WoshPank · 24/05/2024 14:35

Ah ok. Rather an optimistic take. Predators take advantage of loopholes. Letting males into female spaces is a loophole.

Quite.

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 14:37

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 14:24

I know men already do these things to us. Why make it easier for them?

THEY. DON'T NEED. EASIER. ACCESS.
They already do it with ease. They are our family, friends, co-workers and so on. Its more often someone you already know.

Campaign and rage for them to fix our justice systems, fix our policing systems then maybe people would take on board some of our points. The vast majority of women will be assaulted by not only someone they know and overwhelmingly straight cis men.

They already know they will face little to no repercussions for their actions. And again, making all spaces single user only reduces the risk of crimes of 'opportunity'

WoshPank · 24/05/2024 14:38

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 14:37

THEY. DON'T NEED. EASIER. ACCESS.
They already do it with ease. They are our family, friends, co-workers and so on. Its more often someone you already know.

Campaign and rage for them to fix our justice systems, fix our policing systems then maybe people would take on board some of our points. The vast majority of women will be assaulted by not only someone they know and overwhelmingly straight cis men.

They already know they will face little to no repercussions for their actions. And again, making all spaces single user only reduces the risk of crimes of 'opportunity'

This is a terrible argument. They don't need easier access in order to abuse us, so it's fine to give it to them anyway? Utterly, howlingly risible.

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 14:42

WoshPank · 24/05/2024 14:30

Maybe sort out the unsolved rapes and assaults and actually prosecute the perpetrators with actual sentences and they may defer the ones who want to become trans so they'll be in our changing rooms to rape us?

What does that even mean?

Why would any rapist not do what they want when they know they will overwhelmingly not face any negative consequences.

Improving these is only a positive and would also deter any would be rapists who feel they are safe to never be prosecuted. And even if they are, most likely the punishment is next to nothing.

"a loophole" allowing 'men' into a changing room/toilet doesn't mean they get a loophole to rape quite obviously. But it would be a deterrent that isn't there now.

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 14:43

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 14:37

THEY. DON'T NEED. EASIER. ACCESS.
They already do it with ease. They are our family, friends, co-workers and so on. Its more often someone you already know.

Campaign and rage for them to fix our justice systems, fix our policing systems then maybe people would take on board some of our points. The vast majority of women will be assaulted by not only someone they know and overwhelmingly straight cis men.

They already know they will face little to no repercussions for their actions. And again, making all spaces single user only reduces the risk of crimes of 'opportunity'

Actually, there are various reasons why making spaces single user only isn't safer. (Quite apart from the logistical aspect of having to retrofit existing spaces.)

If a man wants to rape a woman in a toilet, it's easier for him to wait for an opportune moment and then shove an unsuspecting victim into a fully enclosed individual toilet with floor to ceiling walls than it is for him to do so in a row of cubicles with gaps under the doors and over the walls. Nobody will see or hear.

And if someone feels unwell and heads for the nearest toilet where they subsequently pass out or have a heart attack or a seizure, if they are in a normal cubicle someone will probably come along before too long and notice that a person is lying on the floor and call for help, whereas if they are in an enclosed cubicle it could be hours or even days before anyone finds them.

The safest solution for women (and indeed for men) is single sex multiple occupancy toilets with standard cubicles.

But this is getting off topic now.

I would just like Labour to acknowledge that women are half the population and that our rights and safety and identities matter just as much as those of trans people.

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 14:45

WoshPank · 24/05/2024 14:38

This is a terrible argument. They don't need easier access in order to abuse us, so it's fine to give it to them anyway? Utterly, howlingly risible.

have you read any of my previous posts on here? when have i stated i wanted mixed changing rooms etc? I don't agree with communal facilities in that regard at all, even if the other people have the same genitals as i do. I shouldn't have to compromise on my privacy for ANY stranger and neither should you.

So please show where I asked for them to have more access?

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 14:45

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 14:42

Why would any rapist not do what they want when they know they will overwhelmingly not face any negative consequences.

Improving these is only a positive and would also deter any would be rapists who feel they are safe to never be prosecuted. And even if they are, most likely the punishment is next to nothing.

"a loophole" allowing 'men' into a changing room/toilet doesn't mean they get a loophole to rape quite obviously. But it would be a deterrent that isn't there now.

How about we improve prosecution and conviction rates for sexual offences AND keep men out of women's spaces?

Prevention AND cure punishment.

Alexandra2001 · 24/05/2024 14:48

Screamingabdabz · 24/05/2024 13:23

You know Labour hate women - look at how many female leaders they’ve had… oh wait…

Oh look ....... at how many female MPs Labour have compared to the Tories? hint.. Tories have around 1/2 the number (proportionately)

Thatcher May and Truss... hardly female rights icons were they? Do we even count Truss? 39 days....

Leaders of political parties should be chosen on merit, nothing else.

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 14:50

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 14:43

Actually, there are various reasons why making spaces single user only isn't safer. (Quite apart from the logistical aspect of having to retrofit existing spaces.)

If a man wants to rape a woman in a toilet, it's easier for him to wait for an opportune moment and then shove an unsuspecting victim into a fully enclosed individual toilet with floor to ceiling walls than it is for him to do so in a row of cubicles with gaps under the doors and over the walls. Nobody will see or hear.

And if someone feels unwell and heads for the nearest toilet where they subsequently pass out or have a heart attack or a seizure, if they are in a normal cubicle someone will probably come along before too long and notice that a person is lying on the floor and call for help, whereas if they are in an enclosed cubicle it could be hours or even days before anyone finds them.

The safest solution for women (and indeed for men) is single sex multiple occupancy toilets with standard cubicles.

But this is getting off topic now.

I would just like Labour to acknowledge that women are half the population and that our rights and safety and identities matter just as much as those of trans people.

My example was a changing room FYI.

There is no one size fits all solution which is what i have been saying - what I am comfortable with is I don't want my privacy to be shared with anyone, others are different.

The safest solution for women (and indeed for men) is single sex multiple occupancy toilets with standard cubicles.

Okay - and what stops a man from just walking in anyway? Not a trans woman, just a regular straight guy and raping a woman. Are you assuming rapists would care about a sign on the door saying "Female Only"?

THIS IS THE PROBLEM. there are issues with each part. When you change up a portion of it, something else becomes a risk.

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 14:52

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 14:45

How about we improve prosecution and conviction rates for sexual offences AND keep men out of women's spaces?

Prevention AND cure punishment.

Edited

Well, considering the track record of our governments and not giving a flying fig about sorting out the prosecution rates, i think we're both SOL.

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 24/05/2024 15:01

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 14:50

My example was a changing room FYI.

There is no one size fits all solution which is what i have been saying - what I am comfortable with is I don't want my privacy to be shared with anyone, others are different.

The safest solution for women (and indeed for men) is single sex multiple occupancy toilets with standard cubicles.

Okay - and what stops a man from just walking in anyway? Not a trans woman, just a regular straight guy and raping a woman. Are you assuming rapists would care about a sign on the door saying "Female Only"?

THIS IS THE PROBLEM. there are issues with each part. When you change up a portion of it, something else becomes a risk.

Well you're right, there's nothing physically stopping them.

But before all this gender stuff became mainstream, if you saw a male person in a female only space, you could say, "Excuse me, this is the ladies, you shouldn't be in here", or you could scream loudly and run away, or you could quietly leave, or you could call security, or go to reception and ask them to deal with it, or any number of things depending on the space and the situation and your assessment of the risk.

Now we can't. Now we're supposed to give everyone the benefit of the doubt.

Now some women's spaces even have posters up telling us to mind our own business and assume that anyone who is in there is there for a legitimate reason and has the right to be there, even if the evidence of our eyes and ears tells us otherwise.

And it's not just toilets and changing rooms.

You can be raped on a women's ward in an NHS hospital and have the staff tell the police it couldn't have happened because no males were present.

You can be kicked out of a women's rape counselling group for objecting to a male person joining and asking if there is a female only group you can join instead.

You can work for a rape crisis centre and be constructively dismissed by the CEO of the rape crisis centre (who is a trans woman) for supporting female victims' right to same sex care.

You can be sexually assaulted in a women's prison by Karen White. (Or at least, you could until recently when they finally clamped down on this after the Isla Bryson scandal hit the headlines.)

And yes, I know all this stuff has happened under Tory rule. And yes I know they are probably only doing something about it now to win women's votes. I know they are just exploiting "knowing what a woman is" for political gain.

But why are Labour letting them? Why are Labour saying they haven't gone far enough to protect trans rights, instead of criticising them for not protecting women's rights? Why are Labour pretending not to know what a woman is and allowing the Tories to make political capital out of saying male people aren't women?

If you let your political opponents get one over on you by saying the earth is spherical when you're saying it's flat, why are you doing that??

Polishedshoesalways · 24/05/2024 15:20

Alexandra2001 · 24/05/2024 14:48

Oh look ....... at how many female MPs Labour have compared to the Tories? hint.. Tories have around 1/2 the number (proportionately)

Thatcher May and Truss... hardly female rights icons were they? Do we even count Truss? 39 days....

Leaders of political parties should be chosen on merit, nothing else.

Bullshit. Labour have not even had a female leader much less a PM to run the country!! Disgraceful.

WoshPank · 24/05/2024 15:20

Alwaystired94 · 24/05/2024 14:42

Why would any rapist not do what they want when they know they will overwhelmingly not face any negative consequences.

Improving these is only a positive and would also deter any would be rapists who feel they are safe to never be prosecuted. And even if they are, most likely the punishment is next to nothing.

"a loophole" allowing 'men' into a changing room/toilet doesn't mean they get a loophole to rape quite obviously. But it would be a deterrent that isn't there now.

There's no reason whatsoever why we can't have both. It's not zero sum. We don't have to choose between preventing male predators from accessing women's spaces and tackling other forms of male violence.

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