Brexit mega thread part 12: David Cameron: Return of the King

[SerendipityJane]

(previous thread)

That's "king" as a suffix not a prefix. Also part of a phrase.

Well said @mathanxiety

Hannibal, does everyone with a different view to you become a bot? Russian, Tufton St, Tory, right wing bot. You accuse lots of posters with these slurs.

Psychologically this should mean you are the bot. Reverse psychology. You cast aspersions onto others based on the thoughts in your own head.

Are you a Brussels bot because you are pro-EU? Would you like to be called this after every post? Have a think about it.

Unless I've got it spot on. In which case: Have they cleared up the manure yet from outside your Brussels HQ?

The UK economy has officially entered recession and Brexit has contributed to that.

Wait for the Brexiters to come on and tell us that it's Ukraine, Covid, the problems in the Red Sea or Israel/Gaza. Or they will tell us that Germany is in recession.

Completely missing the point that Brexit was supposed to be setting us free. If Brexit was a success we would be bucking all these trends and be a country enjoying sturdy growth.

Yes, never mind that GDP per person dropped every quarter of 2023. It hasn't grown since Q1 2022
That's 7 quarters - longest unbroken run without per capita GDP growth since records began in 1955

But farmers protests in Brussels

As an explainer @mathanxiety post needs publishing as a white paper. Thank you for posting it.

Bots are trivial to spot. They post inane waffle backed up with superficially relevant links. Until you realise there is no analysis, no commentary and - crucially - nothing new. The paradigm was "Keirs beer" whenever anything was mentioned about partygate.

For now the real people stand out like diamonds twinkling in a dog turd. They do provide analysis and add to the sum of knowledge.

I have spent my entire adult life working with computers. Part of my degree was in artificial intelligence (takeaway message was that until we know what "intelligence" is, we won't ever be close to making it artificially. So nothing has changed in 40 years).

If you have a situation where bots can be mistaken for people, the it's axiomatic that you will also have situations where people are mistaken for bots. So even if the 1st Squirrel Fusiliers are real people, they should ask themselves why ChatGPT assigns them a "greater probability" of containing machine generated content. Although for full disclosure this is the same session that refused to believe Belgium exists. YMMV, as they say.

And that's your one and only contribution to these threads? To support the obvious shills?

Ok then...

Here's one for the "but look at Germany" crowd;

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/japan-recession-economy-falls-behind-germany-worlds-largest

@SerendipityJane Democracy is two lions and a sheep debating lunch.

Sounds like what the EU did to Hungary recently. Hungary did not want to send funds to the Ukraine, but the EU big boys said they had to agree. Link is:

EU threatened ‘Armageddon’ to force vote on Ukraine aid, Orbán says – POLITICO

@Peregrina Unlike the British Empire which grew rich on the labour and resources of other countries.

That's a good point.

👀

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/21/boris-johnson-will-make-tv-apology-if-brexit-triggers-recession

But it'll be - Covid, Ukraine, Putin, Israel, Willy Wonka, Mickey Mouse, anything but Brexit.

Considering that Brexit has apparently had absolutely no effect on anything at all, it's a wonder why we bothered...

If Orban doesn't like being in the EU he can always just Hexit, instead of supporting a dangerous semi-dictator.

@HannibalHeyes But it'll be - Covid, Ukraine, Putin, Israel, Willy Wonka, Mickey Mouse, anything but Brexit.

How can lines be drawn to seperate out events that have happened in parallel to allocate which events have or have not contributed to a recession?

Considering that Brexit has apparently had absolutely no effect on anything at all, it's a wonder why we bothered...

Some might have thought it would be an overnight success, but I am not one of them. That Mogg guy estimated 50 years.

How can lines be drawn to separate out events that have happened in parallel to allocate which events have or have not contributed to a recession?

If you went to University (a proper one) and paid attention, you'd know, There are a plethora of mathematical techniques designed to do exactly that.

@OldWiseNowTwiceTheSize does everyone with a different view to you become a bot? Russian, Tufton St, Tory, right wing bot

MN has been littered with brexit bashing threads since 2016. Some posters give reasoned arguments, but in general it is abuse by the same clan.

MN has been littered with brexit bashing threads since 2016. Some posters give reasoned arguments, but in general it is abuse by the same clan.

We had plenty of that from Brexiters: Remoaners, What is it about Democracy you don't understand etc. But almost 8 years on from the vote, and 4 years since we left or 3 if you discount the Transition period, you seem not to be aware that you have got your Brexit. The mandate has been discharged. Yet you are not happy.

And Mogg incidentally didn't bother to mention 50 years until after the vote.

Perhaps the OBR should employ some people who went to a (proper) university;

The economic and fiscal shock associated with the end of the Brexit transition period occurred as the country was still dealing with the pandemic. This comes on top of the stagnation in productivity seen since the global financial crisis. And more recently, the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These factors mean that it will, in practice, be very difficult to isolate the effect of the new trading relationship with the EU on the medium-term economic and fiscal outlook.

GlobeTrotter2000
That Mogg guy estimated 50 years

To be fair Rees-Mogg was quoted out of context - that was his politician's answer to 'What if you are wrong?' - 'We won't know if I am wrong for 50 years' or words to that effect.

It's satisfying to have my point made by an antagonist.

We should have known that an out of context quote would never slip past some posters here.

SerendipityJane
Tui to leave London Stock Exchange in favour of Frankfurt

TUI is a German company - the vast majority of shareholders live in Germany (and trade shares in Frankfurt) - increasingly so since the merger in Dec 2014. TUI lost its premium listing in the FTSE 100 during COVID and the German government bought a big chunk of shares to bail the company out (although I see TUI is performing better now).

mathanxiety
Account for the majority remain vote in Scotland and Northern Ireland then...

I don't need to - I was focused on a handful of individuals - but I will;

The same as any vote - people will base their vote on their own personal and cultural circumstances - usually influenced by the media, politicians or so-called experts. Bias and prejudice will play a part as well. I don't dictate how people should vote (unlike some posters on here).

You are somewhat naive if you think 'experts' cannot be influenced by their own bias (whether conscious or not). You only have to look at websites such as Full Fact to see how studies can be tweaked by different methodologies, time periods, participants etc. Studies produced by left and right-wing think tanks on the same topic can both be right in parts and at the same time deliberately distorted. Jeremy Corbyn found over 150 'economists' to endorse his manifestos (many of them from overseas with a special interest in marxism I might add ...)

Also, I am surprised that you are not aware of your own bias. I have read enough of your posts over the last few years to recognise that your views are somewhat influenced by historical grievances towards Britain due to your Irish nationality - although you live in the United States now. More recently, your bias has been obvious with regards to Brexit negotiations involving Ireland.

From my perspective, it is somewhat laughable that you seek to pass yourself off as a non-partisan observer on this thread.

Careful now Clav before you say the quiet bit out loud