Brexit mega thread part 12: David Cameron: Return of the King

[SerendipityJane]

(previous thread)

That's "king" as a suffix not a prefix. Also part of a phrase.

If the world is willing to piss away the Israel-Egypt peace, then Northern Ireland is well fucked.

@beguilingeyes

Russia are playing both the EU and the US for fools. Continued funding for the Ukraine will bankrupt both the EU and the US. UK will suffer too as they are also providing support to the Ukraine.

Russia has massive oil and gas reserves which they can sell to China (17.2% of the World's population) and India (also 17.2% of the World's population). The EU and the US combined make up Approx. 10% of the World. So, sanctions by the EU and the US have made no difference to Russia.

Goldman Sachs

“The evidence points to a significant long-run output cost of Brexit,” to the tune of 5%, higher than the OBR’s ‘project fear’ 4%.

Few graphs in this tweet

https://x.com/JohnSpringford/status/1757334827085279465?s=20

Got my hands on the @GoldmanSachs Brexit report - it's excellent and they should release it publicly. Key charts here

In the past, one of the advantages European powers had over their massively over-resourced colonies was a political system which was more efficient. Doesn't matter how much oil, coal and gas you are sitting on if only 1% ever makes a profit because of endemic corruption.

I wonder how history half a millennia hence will see the decline of the West ? I suspect the endemic corruption it was willing to countenance on the altar of some specious enemy (Jeremy Corbyn) might feature largely.

It's so true it fucking hurts. All empires end in failure.

@SerendipityJane

In 1991, one of the lectures at MBS was about the global shift from West to East. Of the countries I have visited and worked in, it seems that Chinese are the most successful.

@DuncinToffee “The evidence points to a significant long-run output cost of Brexit,” to the tune of 5%, higher than the OBR’s ‘project fear’ 4%.

That was meant to happen by 2018, but did not. Last date I heard was 2035. So, what is the latest date for the end of the UK?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2637e62a-9979-45c3-99c5-e174d8074954?shareToken=029b494dcb703c72b1540c8a37feaa36

"I think we've all had enough of experts ..."

That was meant to happen by 2018, but did not.

That was if we crashed out straight away with No Deal. As you should know, we were still in the EU then.

Nor I think did any Brexiter think that the Bank of England would immediately step in. But you have to wonder why the B o E needed to step in, if it was so wonderful.

Also, if it was so wonderful, why did Gove and Johnson look absolutely gobsmacked?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68203820

@Peregrina That was if we crashed out straight away with No Deal. As you should know, we were still in the EU then.

Been round this loop before. The UK Treasury report link is

HM Treasury analysis: the immediate economic impacy of leaving the EU (publishing.service.gov.uk)

Key points are:

This paper focuses on the immediate economic impact of a vote to leave and the two years that follow.

The analysis examines these impacts from 2016 Q3 to 2018 Q2

No mention of trigger of Article 50. The vote to leave was 23 June 2016. 2016Q3 is 1 July 2016.

As per Article 50 there is a two year negotiation period from trigger of Article 50 to leaving the EU. So, the treasury forecast was for the period whilst the UK was in the EU.

@SerendipityJane

Apparently Trump warned the EU and Germany in particular about reliance of Russian energy, buT the EU (Germany) thought Russia would always play ball

I represented a Russian energy company from 2012 to 2016. Local staff said then that Putin would launch an indirect attack on the EU in the near future. Some think that if COVID not appeared, Russia would have invaded the Uktaine sooner. However, Putin waited for COVID to subside before he invaded to keep the World in turmoil.

Communication with former colleagues who are now working in Moscow advise that sanctions by the EU and the US have made no difference to their lives.

Apparently Trump warned the EU and Germany in particular about reliance of Russian energy,

Er, wasn't he single handedly drafting the Music Modernisation Act at the time ?

Or washing his hair ?

Anyway, as we in the UK know only too well. You can be warned and warned and warned. After all, we've done it to ourselves enough times.

Been round this loop before.

So why did you bother raising the issue then?

Because it uses space that other news could have gone in.

Peregrina
why did Gove and Johnson look absolutely gobsmacked?

Well, according to Dominic Cummings in 2017;

The pair seemed subdued at a press conference the day after the referendum as they liked David Cameron and “did not want to be seen as dancing on his grave”, Cummings wrote...

“Some of the media created the psychologically compelling story that they were regretful/frightened about victory, but this was not at all their mood in HQ on the morning of 24 June,”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/09/boris-johnson-brexit-referendum-dominic-cummings

GlobeTrotter2000
Apparently Trump warned the EU and Germany in particular about reliance of Russian energy

Certainly, it was the Trump administration who imposed sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in December 2019 - Biden waived them in May 2021:

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/us-sanctions-block-putins-pipeline/

Biden under fire from Congress for waiving sanctions on Russian gas pipeline company.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-comes-under-fire-congress-after-waiving-sanctions-russian-gas-n1267975

The pair seemed subdued at a press conference the day after the referendum as they liked David Cameron and “did not want to be seen as dancing on his grave”, Cummings wrote..

I doubt it. The only person Johnson likes is himself. But I imagine he didn't expect Cameron to run away quite so quickly, and thought probably that he'd have a few months to get ready to launch his bid to be PM.

Perhaps we have - the Goldman Sachs expert in this instance is quite clearly German - hardly surprising that a German economist doesn't support Brexit.

Dominic Cummings said
Trump
Expert is German

Thanks for the laugh

Your link on the other thread (The Independent) describes John Springford as a fellow at a pro-EU think tank;

John Springford, an associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform (CER), a pro-EU think tank

From their website;

About the CER

The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world.

https://www.cer.eu/about

Oh Clav. So because it was posted by someone who is in favour of the EU, a piece of economic analysis by Goldman Sachs is suddenly not valid? That's a reach, even for you.

Clavinova,
Are you happy that the UK's Foreign Secretary is not an elected MP ?
yes or no ?

The German economist hasn't publicly released his piece of economic analysis - let me know when he does. Bloomberg's report says this;

Some economists, especially those more in favor of the decision to leave the EU, have argued against using the so-called doppelganger approach to analyzing the impact of Brexit. They, like the UK government, also point to how UK’s real GDP has outperformed Germany and Italy since the referendum.

Yes - I think David Cameron is an excellent choice.

Hasn't Keir Starmer U-turned on his House of Lords pledge?