Brexit mega thread part 10 : what's the (s)tory? Incompetence, tax evasion, dodgy loans and economic free fall...nothing to see here...check out those sunlit uploands!

[Chevyimpala67]

Part 10 of our long running thread.
I'm still putting my money on a spring GE.
The tory slash and burn of the UK is right on track.
Bon chance my friends!

my father in law at 83 has totally changed his view in last 2 years

So what the fuck did he thing all the warnings before 2016 were ?

@SerendipityJane - he very naively thought we would end up with a Norway type arrangement- to which he saw advantages! He also had a partner who was very Brexity and Daily mail- had a big issue with Germans in particular! (She has since died)

Doesn't someone no longer prepared to vote Tory count as a Brexit benefit?
To be fair to the FIL - many people thought we would end up with a Norway style arrangement. I recall Farage extolling the situation in Norway, and then there was Daniel "No one's talking of leaving the Single Market" Hannan.

The problem is that people actually believed those numpties. I mean, how stupid can you get?

There are about 3 brexit threads on aibu at the moment, leave voters don't have many arguments left it seems.

@DuncinToffee they've got nothing beyond 'are you not over this yet?' and still no answers about the great Brexit Benefits we were promised. It is a cult, but one hopes it's getting smaller. You'll never get the Brexit headbangers to accept they were sold a pup.

The problem with all of that nonsense is it starts with trusting the government.

Which makes things even worse for those people who claim they voted Brexit because they didn't trust the government.

Mind you, as we have seen on this forum, people are still queuing up to "give them another chance".

You can see how 419ers get away with it.

I used to follow these threads religiously under the auspices of Red Tooth Brush. I drifted away but have been stirred up by the Brexit threads on the main board. I was struck by the total absence of anyone trying to defend Brexit or point out a single benefit.
I came back here and note that Louise is alive and well but alas hasn't drifted to the main boards to put them straight. There was another prolific Brexit defender, the name of which I've forgotten. Where are they now?
They've resorted to abuse alas with the get a life style comments.
It is all to the good that the mainstream are waking up to the disaster that is Brexit and I remain convinced that there will be a steady drift back after the next election.
I would like to claim one benefit of Brexit. It will destroy the Tory party. They will lose the next election and tear chunks out of each other in an unseemly bloodbath afterwards.

@WorriedMutha Yep that's one benefit! That and handling of covid have shown them up as a bunch of total lying, self serving ,sub apprentice candidates

@Peregrina I think as well much depends on political and media intelligence and I think some have none!! Take everything BBC and Daily Mail says as gospel, one thing that enlightened my previously mentioned FIL was switching to sky news and then being baffled why certain things were not being reported on the BBC- particularly anything that showed the gvt in a poor light.

No it won't, the Tory Party will survive and might even win in 2024/25, polls will narrow (they are starting too now) and the Tory press will go into overdrive against Labour, just as they did against Brown, Miliband and Corbyn, esp in the 2019 GE.

Also, generally speaking, Brexit voters aren't waking up to the damage they ve caused, they don't care... but they are dying, replaced by younger pro EU voters.

But don't underestimate the avg British voters desire to vote against their own best interests, so cost of living and inflation, public services have collapsed, the NHS is a disaster zone, roads, schools/education, strikes... despite all this, many polls give Lab just an 11 pt lead.

@Alexandra2001 this poll tracker does not support what you have just said

And yes, still a long way to go - but also still many, many opportunities for the Tories to shoot themselves in the foot.

I'm perhaps more optimistic than you about the 24 election. I really think that in the end voters will just want a change. The schisms in the Tory party are just insurmountable without a major falling out. Even though Johnson purged the vaguely moderate MPs from the ranks. With Brexit overtly failing, the ultras won't get it all their own way.

I hope you are right.

There was another prolific Brexit defender, the name of which I've forgotten. Where are they now?

How can we forget Clavinova.

Sure polls will say different things at different times but some polls give Labour an 11 pt lead, your tracker is 19pt's.

Complacency will do for Labour as it did in the lead up to the 1992 election.

If Jan 25 is correct as reported over the weekend, we are 20months away from a GE, 18 months if a more traditional October 24 GE.

Like i said, don't underestimate the electorate to vote against their own best interests... yet again.

That Cut n paste character was an idiot and possibly paid for her work on here.

@Alexandra2001 the tracker I have posted isn't a single poll, it's a concatenation of many. So I would suggest that those polls showing an 11 point lead only are low outliers, just as others will be high outliers. I agree there is no room for complacency and no doubt the polls will tighten further still, but we shouldn't underestimate the Tories' ability to fuck themselves over.

There's a link in the page I posted that goes to an explainer by an expert on polls who sets it all out very clearly, worth a read.

Imagine the c&p posts if there were actually any benefits to be found......

Well done to your grandad @Crikeyalmighty for actually thinking about it and realising it was all a con. At least he's not still cheering it all on and holding Mogg up on a pedestal as the great leader into the sunlit uplands as some are...

Clavinova. How could I forget that. I was sure it began with a C but I thought if I explicitly said so, my comment could be misconstrued.

Yes i appreciate that.

The point is that predicting GE results 18 months out, is a fools game.

My own belief is that if the Tories drop huge clangers, they wont get reported, for example ... we have 7m on waiting lists and 12 to 18hr waits in AE, estimates vary but around 350 to 500 PER WEEK day die waiting for treatment.

In any normal democracy, we'd have around the clock reporting, there would be resignations, even an early election but here in Sunny Uplands Britain its met with a shrug and an oh well.... same with cross channel delays, ministers come on and say "nowt to do with brexit" and the interviewer just nods in agreement.

You only have to look at what is happening in France and compare to the UK to see we are a shadow of our former selves.

But the polls aren't predicting what will happen in 18 months. They are telling you what was likely to happen if a GE was held now. You use them to keep track of trends.

I don't see things going off the boil here any time soon. The general public have not been whipped up to oppose the junior doctors' strikes. Teacher strikes will be ongoing. Further strikes in other sectors will continue to happen. If this were a government that had been in post for a single term I might agree with your concerns, but after 13 years this government is rotten and is seen to be rotten.

TBH we are singing from the same hymn sheet here.

I just remember the lead up to 1992 and the sure fire certainty Lab would win and then didn't...

I also think that many many people will still believe the mantra that "Labour would be worse..." i hear this all the time, along with "they are all the same, i wont be voting..."

I remember 1992 too, I was still living in the Netherlands then. I was pretty sure Labour would lose that election.

The current situation isn't comparable though. In 1992 the full wave of sleaze had yet to hit. We're smack bang in the middle of it with more coming every day.

There were loads of them back in 2016/17/even 18. Remember the Brexit Arms? Loads of them telling us how great Brexit will be. I remember a few posters basically pointing and laughing at how foolish I was to believe experts and that our travel rights in the EU will be exactly the same.