Brexit mega thread part 10 : what's the (s)tory? Incompetence, tax evasion, dodgy loans and economic free fall...nothing to see here...check out those sunlit uploands!

[Chevyimpala67]

Part 10 of our long running thread.
I'm still putting my money on a spring GE.
The tory slash and burn of the UK is right on track.
Bon chance my friends!

<shrugs>

The whole media narrative has shifted. Even the Express - that I am subjected to hourly as Microsoft Start make it the mainstay of my feed (along with the Telegraph and Daily Mail ?) sound like they have been told to dial it down. Certainly the EG/DUP dream team have been put on the back foot by the media.

It may all be to do with the carrot of a Biden visit in April ?

Or maybe there's a push for an election on the back of this in May ?

Pulling the King in was a masterstroke in so many ways. Suggests a capacity for imagination that has been hitherto absent in Tory thinking.

This is like when your child comes home from school with an idea (like "lets get a puppy") that you know has come from one of their friends.

Could it be that economic reality finally hits?

Normal folks can see it so it is getting harder to deny the Brexit shit show despite the rain in Spain

Somehow I don't think so. After all if economics was all it took, it would have happened far sooner.

No, something else is moving in the waters. An educated guess is going to be an election. It's a well known fact that the Tories love Spring elections, so we are still in time for May - which would be one way to disguise the local elections. It's also the best time to dump the rump of the ERG. Because I suspect they won't have much space in opposition.

And if I were an apolitical Brexiteer, I would want an election asap while Brexit is still baked into the polling and Labour are committed to it. Who knows where this time next year could leave us. With another summer of people trying to get to Spain or France.

The funny thing is, is that this Windsor Framework doesn't in practice change the fundamentals - NI is still in the Single Market and still subject to the ECJ.

As for Rees-Mogg wittering initially, (although he seems to have shut up now) about dragging the Monarch into it, this is only what he did with his illegal prorogation of Parliament.

I agree. I think Sunak is representative of a subsection of Brexiters (some, like him, with more international backgrounds) who are appalled at how it’s turning out for business. More fool them for thinking it would work out in the first place, but even so…

I'm finding it interesting that some of you have hinted at a 2023 election. Zoe Williams was talking about it in the Guardian yesterday and it's been hinted at on Twitter and in the Guardian.

From a Tory viewpoint, the opinion polls are not going to get any better. We've got April's CoL crisis with the new energy cap and Johnson's ongoing sleaze-fest.

I think the NI Windsor Framework is the symbol of how things could be for the Union in general. Yep, rejoin or at least open talks on a similar set up to the WF.

Anyway, for what it's worth, I'm of the view that the DUP issue is not so much the Framework, it's the fact that if Stormont is reconvened then a certain Michelle O'Neill of Sinn Fein will be First Minister, and OMG the DUP do not like that one bit. Sammy Wilson's red face looking in anger is but a harbinger of their conniptions.

Interesting times ahead. And hopefully just verbal shenanigans and nothing more sinister to evolve.

I repeat
GE this Spring

IMO, Sunak isn't as stupid as his predecessors and isn't a rah rah up the empire-ist. The Tories have pandered to the DUP for as long as was necessary and have never cared about NI. Now is the time to cut them loose and get a new relationship with the EU off the ground.

The ERG have been embedded in NI with Baker, who is enjoying the limelight, but also Chris Heaton Harris who by all accounts has been taking his job seriously and I think they understand NI better, rather than only listening to the DUP. Sure posing with pints of guinness and going to GAA matches can be written off as PR, but Tory SoS don't normally do this. And apparently Sunak's old college roommate was from Omagh. He might have more insight on NI than we have given him credit for.

Reality is coming home to roost: look at the shortages just due to the UK being deprioritized in terms of fresh fruit delivery. Now think of what an actual trade war, which would have been unleashed if the Protocol Bill had gone to the Kings Speech in October.

Horizon has now been re-opened for the UK to access.

Biden will now get off his back - the 25th anniversary is coming up and that will shine another spotlight.

The war in Ukraine has shown you need allies you can trust.

There is not a lot that has substantially changed from the reports to date, but lots of technical tweaks to make the Protocol actually work in practice (e.g. the UK has finally agreed to share trade data and start building the infractstucture that was needed to make it work, giving Stormont a bit more of an input).

The EU are letting the Brexiteers own the comms to give them a ladder to climb down for the sake of NI. And NI is special - some commentators seem to have forgotten this deal is only for them.

As an Irish citizen with family in NI, I'm really pleased and I hope that the DUP see sense. But as they say, they never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity so let's see....

Things certainly moving quickly, and, so far, in a fairly positive way.

I think Sunak was a Brexshitter in that he could see opportunity to profit from it, in the same way Grease-Smug did. Now that he's PM, he doesn't want to be remembered as the one who brought "The Troubles" back to NI, and maybe is actually starting to crawl out from behind his privileged rock and see what the damage is doing to real people's lives.

Labour have to get ahead of this. If the Tories become a more pro-Europe party, and Starmer keeps flogging the dead horse of "Make Brexshit Work", combined with the voter suppression that's going on, it could actually work for the Tories...

I agree. Memories are very short and the political cycle moves faster and faster all the time. Come on Kier, say something helpful. It’s really fine to say it all turned to shit. It has.

Me neither. I suspect their true gripe is the fact they've been knocked off the top spot, having sat there ever since the Good Friday Agreement came into force. All well and good doing the power sharing when you're top dog. The Northern Ireland Protocol was a smokescreen , they just don't want to play second fiddle.

I hope I'm wrong but we'll see sooon.

From a Tory viewpoint, the opinion polls are not going to get any better. We've got April's CoL crisis with the new energy cap and Johnson's ongoing sleaze-fest.

They could get a lot worse too. Better cut & run now and return with some dignity, rather than string it out (governments that let it go to the wire rarely do well) and become the 4th largest party in Westminster.

Even Lord Frost is backing this (with admitted expected bad grace). Probably because if it works out, people will forget it's fixing his fuckup.

Boris is being a night time dog here.

The fact the BBC has suddenly remembered that this is Boris Johnsons Brexit might be a factor.

Or maybe the whole Brexit tree has - politically - run out of fruit ? Dragging it out much longer risks re-energising that fucker Farage and his caravan of cunts with zero electoral benefit for the Tories.

Another possibility is - given the predicted scale of the Tory wipeout whenever the next GE is, they want to remove the possibility that a Labour government with a 200+ majority might do something that would permanently remove their power base, like introducing PR.

In fact I were a Brexiteer Tory and I had to chose between renouncing Brexit, or stopping PR, it would be a no brainer. I'd be rejoining in a heartbeat.

Anyone asked ChatGPT what it thinks ? (Is it an "it" ?)

I’m from NI , and am pleased, but 1 brexiter said to me on here when I pointed out the NI issue ahead of the vote ‘I don’t give a fuck about Northern Ireland.

and I agree about DUP, they won’t ever take 2nd spot, Sammy & Jeffrey will manufacture another crisis - it will be marching season soon.

Well with even Sarah Vile* cheering this deal on (possibly because it reduces the options of Michael Gove "PM") the pressure mounts on the DUP. After all if every FuckFaceFrosty can begrudgingly back it, the question starts being "what's their problem ?".

now putting the DUP under pressure usually results in fuck all. They really are as thick as they act. However they have run our of road for excuses to not resume power sharing.

I must admit, on the basis I agree with many that I simply can't see them sitting at Stormont under a Sinn Fein first minister, I really can't imagine what excuses they will have to come up to justify it. Maybe the news they have just appointed a Feng Shui consultant holds the clue ? "The ley lines are all wrong."

*Took me a while to type that as I was crying with sorrow over her plight. We need to organise something to help.

Looks like Sunak has single handedly revived the Scottish independence cause.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/joanna-cherry-northern-ireland-scotland-snp-rishi-sunak-b2292021.html

is anyone else absolutely gobsmacked at the air time that Johnson is getting pontificating about NI and the ceiling collapsing in Brussels quote being played at least three times today on R4 and guaranteed it’ll be on the news tonight.etc etc etc.

FFS, why are the BBC giving this mendacious incompetent the slightest time of day. Like a bunch of gleeful toddlers are running the place going ooh isn’t this a fun playground fight between Bojo and Rishi. Jesus who cares what Johnson thinks!?

I did like the clip where they asked who thought brexit was a good idea and only a few hands went up.

Is it moving toward resolution? DUP are yet to approve, let alone serve under SF in the assembly which if it doesn't sit, wouldn't be able to use its veto on new EU law...... Sovereignty ah!

Looks like the ECJ will be the court of arbitration too, which i did think was a red line.

But the good news is NI will have access to both the UK's SM and the EU's very wealthy one, so lots of new inward investment... if only the UK could join in ... what a bonus for us all !!!

Do you have a link to that?

metro.co.uk/2023/03/02/boris-asks-crowd-if-brexit-was-a-good-idea-almost-no-one-raises-their-hand-18375107/

amongst others

That Isabel Oakeshott sounds like a nice woman. Surely MH is going to sue as she signed a NDA?

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/02/isabel-oakeshott-matt-hancock-im-a-celebrity-whatsapp-leak

The DUP are working on elements of the Tory party to see what sort of anti Sunak cabal will support them in opposition to the deal. Johnson has hinted he has reservations.

metro.co.uk/2023/03/02/boris-asks-crowd-if-brexit-was-a-good-idea-almost-no-one-raises-their-hand-18375107/

Same Metro link already posted (show of hands).