Question for Leave voters who've changed their minds about Brexit.

[Kendodd]

Before I start, I know, hardly any have, even that eel bloke still supports Brexit. But for the tiny percentage who have -

Why did you change your mind?
Are you angry at all with the people who sold you Brexit?

I know lots of Leave voters are very angry about how its turning out, but they all seem to be angry with the EU for not doing what brexiteer politicians said the EU would do. Even the DUP still supports Brexit.

Yes, £26b of fraud out of £47b lent, is a ridiculous amount of money to lose over less than a year.

They haven't lost the money yet. The estimate; potential loss of £15 billion to £26 billion includes businesses unable to repay their loans, not just fraud. Should the government have let small businesses fail?

Today [Oct 2020] the National Audit Office (NAO) reports that the Bounce Back Loan Scheme succeeded in quickly supporting small businesses, but government faces a potential loss of £15 billion to £26 billion through businesses not being able to repay the loans and fraud.

As a result of credit and fraud risks, BEIS and the Bank have made a preliminary estimate that 35% to 60% of borrowers may default on the loans, based on losses observed in previous programmes which are most similar to the Scheme. Assuming the Scheme lends £43 billion, this would imply a potential cost to government of £15 billion to £26 billion, but these estimates are highly uncertain. Over the coming months, the extent of losses due to fraud will become clearer, but the full extent of losses, both credit and fraud, will not emerge until the loans are due to start being repaid from 4 May 2021.

www.nao.org.uk/press-release/investigation-into-the-bounce-back-loan-scheme/

The speed with which that money was pushed down into the real economy was astonishing and it was known to everyone involved at the time that much of it was to keep businesses afloat that would eventually sink, but what do you want to do in a crisis? It was a very liberal, centrist Tory approach and was widely praised domestically and internationally at the time. It was also part of the move to claim the centre ground.

Still no one explaining the ethics of EU not contributing properly to vaccine development. Does that not concern you?

@TheHoneyBadger

Still no one explaining the ethics of EU not contributing properly to vaccine development. Does that not concern you?

EU countries will have done. But under EU Subsidiarity rules the commission would not have taken on the role of funding R&D That is the job of sovereign nations and their companies and universities

@Toptotoeunicolour

The speed with which that money was pushed down into the real economy was astonishing and it was known to everyone involved at the time that much of it was to keep businesses afloat that would eventually sink, but what do you want to do in a crisis? It was a very liberal, centrist Tory approach and was widely praised domestically and internationally at the time. It was also part of the move to claim the centre ground.

I understand the need to assist business etc but there is also the need for due diligence, these are substantial amounts of money.

Furlough was one thing but some of the business loan schemes were nothing more than handouts to business that didn't need it or were fraudulent companies set up purely to rip off the government.

If i can acknowledge that the Govt got vaccine procure right, why is it that in the face of overwhelming evidence tory/brexit supporters cannot accept that Sunak has been negligent with our taxes?

@TheHoneyBadger

Still no one explaining the ethics of EU not contributing properly to vaccine development. Does that not concern you?

I can acknowledge the EU should have done more.

But europe's contribution has been 50% of AstraZeneca and many many EU scientists who have worked bloody hard to ensure a successful vaccine, these men and women have been able to move seamlessly between their home countries and the UK, FOM also enabled many to make the UK their homes.
UK Universities have also benefited from large amounts of EU funding over many years.

Don't think its very helpful to just look at the EU's contribution since last february.

There will doubtless be a full post mortem in the fullness of time when all the facts become available. It is far too early now to know how many firms will go bust or which funds cannot be recovered. If they have been negligent they will be rightly criticised and held to account. That's the beauty of it.

Who has said people cannot accept he has been negligent? I suspect though that some people will balance the eventual losses against the upside of support for genuine small businesses and think of swings and roundabouts, but I do think it's too early to say.

How do you think all those German people feel about channelling all those billons towards Italy when they have no say in it whatsoever and very little means to stop it, because to stop now creates an even bigger mess? Do you think they can vote those people out? They can't because it isn't a decision made by the parliament.

@Toptotoeunicolour

Ah yes, lets now talk about Germany and Italy - utterly irrelevant.

Clavinova says 15 to 26 billion of fraudulent losses! this is an amazing amount of money and the Govt is no longer accountable because they have extended the loan payback period to many years, so can always say "Too early to say...... lets see in 15 years time"

Your idea of accountability is fairy mist.

Heaven forbid if a Labour administration threw away 10s of billions :( I somehow doubt you'd be quite so understanding.

It's not irrelevant - quite the opposite it's the absolute crux of the matter. It's about closer accountability. My answer to your argument is that Rishi Sunak will be held to account by people like you and me who can vote him out if we believe his record is poor, assuming of course that we hold a sufficiently majority view after balancing everything else in the Tory record and weighing up the alternatives. A luxury not everyone has.

jasjas1973
Clavinova says 15 to 26 billion of fraudulent losses!

You obviously didn't read my post - it's not fraud if you intended to pay back the loan;

through businesses not being able to repay the loans and fraud.

I somehow doubt you'd be quite so understanding.
That is just your prejudices coming through.

The whole of Europe = half of astra zeneka? Who paid the other half? We also invested in many vaccines and are tiny in comparison to the united states of Europe.

How much per capita did they invest in vitally needed vaccine development compared to USA and UK? Did they invest enough to even pay their way let alone help cover the nations that couldn't afford to pay but will still need the vaccines.

It's interesting that anything that doesn't fit the narrative gets called irrelevant or besides the point.

They loaned money for vaccine development rather than giving it or taking the risk of pre-ordering early and therefore ensuring money in the hands of developers to progress speedily.

Even then they've gone on to secure themselves lower prices than some African countries will have to pay. It's just I'm the biggest kid on the block bullying.

Old article.

www.ft.com/content/c1575e05-70e5-4e5f-b58c-cde5c99aba5f

My answer to your argument is that Rishi Sunak will be held to account by people like you and me who can vote him out if we believe his record is poor

Sunak has reset the loan repayment period to be so long, he'll be long gone to the Lords before he will be held to account for his wastefulness.
So your argument holds no water i'm afraid.

How much per capita did they invest in vitally needed vaccine development compared to USA and UK? Did they invest enough to even pay their way let alone help cover the nations that couldn't afford to pay but will still need the vaccines

You would have to add up the EU investment plus 27 countries investments before a fair comparison could be made, the EU is not a country nor is it a "united states of europe" no such thing exists, only in your mind.

Bringing in what Germany lent to Italy is irrelevant, its just a diversion.

I note you haven't acknowledged the role EU scientists played in the OX/AZ development of the vaccine, nor how FOM has helped.....

Sunak has reset the loan repayment period to be so long, he'll be long gone to the Lords before he will be held to account for his wastefulness.
There is an interest free option for six months only which you can use three times only over the 10 year life. This should provide you as a tax payer with some comfort that bad loans will be identified as bad long before the end of the tenor, within any of those six months periods probably.
Sunak is only 40 - I imagine he'll be in politics for far longer than 10 years. Even being touted as next PM.

Regardless of Sunak personally, you'll be able to vote the Tories out - he acts in their name, not his own. Provided of course the majority agrees with you.
So don't worry, you have plenty more agency than those poor Germans have about their bad loans.
So your argument holds no water i'm afraid.
Another baseless but optimistic statement.

Not sure what the nationality of scientists has to do with anything. It's not like the eu made them or they wouldn't exist without the eu. There's definitely a correlation between relative wealth of countries and therefore education levels though hence it's so important that countries with that wealth of resources over contribute to make up for whole sections of the world without such privileges.

That's not the loan I was referring to. These were loans to vaccine developers.

Do you really believe scientists wouldn't be able to travel between countries if it wasn't for the eu? I travel to all sorts of places outside the eu without issue. We are very lucky to be able to enter most countries in the world without difficulty.

you'll be able to vote the Tories out - he acts in their name, not his own. Provided of course the majority agrees with you.
Except you might not be able to vote them out even if the majority don't want them. The majority did not vote Tory in the last election, I think off the top of my head, they got 41% of the vote (?) and yet they have total control of the government and an 80 seat majority. Once again, the majority DID NOT vote for them. At the next election the majority may try to vote them out and yet they could end up with an even bigger majority in parliament. Its simply not true that the majority can vote them out.

@Kendodd

you'll be able to vote the Tories out - he acts in their name, not his own. Provided of course the majority agrees with you. Except you might not be able to vote them out even if the majority don't want them. The majority did not vote Tory in the last election, I think off the top of my head, they got 41% of the vote (?) and yet they have total control of the government and an 80 seat majority. Once again, the majority DID NOT vote for them. At the next election the majority may try to vote them out and yet they could end up with an even bigger majority in parliament. Its simply not true that the majority can vote them out.

There is a separate issue with FPTP, but that is absolutely not a Brexit issue and not resolved with transferring power to a different structure in Brussels. It can only be resolved with a reform of voting in the UK, and there would be a separate debate about the wisdom of that. That said, KenDodd, I do have sympathy with your earlier post about feeling more represented at Brussels due to your vote having supported the MEP who won. I have an innate feeling in the opposite direction (i.e. feel more aligned with Tory politics than EU politics), but I recognise that it made a some small difference to my willingness to support Brexit - far from a defining factor, but I get it.

So don't worry, you have plenty more agency than those poor Germans have about their bad loans

Don't they have elections in Germany? can't they, with their PR system vote in the AFD and perhaps leave the EU if they so wish?
KenDodd makes a very good point on our FPTP system and so called majority govt.

Either way the Govt is expected never to 10s of billions of this fraud, on top of the billions that will be lost as genuine companies fold.

Do you really believe scientists wouldn't be able to travel between countries if it wasn't for the eu? I travel to all sorts of places outside the eu without issue. We are very lucky to be able to enter most countries in the world without difficulty

Travel yes, work and be able to travel seamlessly between uk/eu countries/universities.... no
FOM has helped scientific cooperation, programs like Horizon, Erasmus have helped too. Why do you think the UK will pay billions into the round Horizon funding?

There is a separate issue with FPTP, but that is absolutely not a Brexit issue and not resolved with transferring power to a different structure in Brussels. It can only be resolved with a reform of voting in the UK, and there would be a separate debate about the wisdom of that

Perhaps but if UKIP supporters had been able to have representation in Parliament, their argument would have been held up for what it is and publicly argued against?
The ERG MPs would be in Ukip and the Tory party would be a little more One Nation, rather than the far right party it has become?
The views of people like Raab, Patel etc can be read in Britannia Unchained.

What powers have been transferred to Brussels?

I prefer the principle of countries acting in unity rather than competing against each other.
You appear to be rather naive. There's no such thing as European unity, each country puts itself first. Why else do you think that Germany banned the export of PPE to Italy?

rather than the far right party it has become?
Sunak invested billions in supporting vulnerable businesses. On the one hand you criticise him because you see that as billions lost, on the other you call them a far right party? Unbelievable.

Toptotoeunicolour
Right so can you please stop with the comments that if the majority don't like the Tories they can vote them out because it's just not true. The majority in the last election DID NOT want the Tories and yet despite this we could not even clip their wings.

OK it's an imprecise use of words, but the fact remains that the Tories won the election with a large majority of seats. I appreciate you have a problem with FPTP but that's not a discussion that belongs in a Brexit debate.