Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

@Peregrina

Why are they so desperate to do trade deals with the US and thereby sacrifice some sovereignty, but belonging to the EU and having a say in the rules is a complete No No?

Will the removal of the clauses in the IMB be enough of a sweetener for the Biden administration? I rather think not.

I believe that President-elect Biden has signalled no interest in any trade deals until he feels the US can compete internationally. Which is going to play well at home.

In any case the UK will be behind the EU.

Hi there happywinter
We took the hedgehog into a rescue centre as she had a lung infection.
If they can get her well she'll come back here to live.

In happy news though, I thought my cat was ill as she'd lost a fair bit of weight but the vet says she is just no longer overweight and is really healthy tinned pilchards for her for Christmas

Whatever is announced whenever, Boris knows the outcome of his piece of theatre right now.

Having to face down his own headbangers over the IMB is significant in some respects. But he has to walk the world stage. They don't.

@DGRossetti

Whatever is announced whenever, Boris knows the outcome of his piece of theatre right now.

Having to face down his own headbangers over the IMB is significant in some respects. But he has to walk the world stage. They don't.

I agree.

Why do you think he looks relaxed. He's made The Decision.

Of course, whichever Decision he has made, it's going to piss off a whole load of people.

I don't think he can piss off Remainers much more than he has done - but Leavers - yes, this will be interesting to see.

I predict that fisheries will be sold down the river (not meant to be a weak pun).

The problem for all sides, is that Boris doesn't give a shit about any of them. As long as it's Good For Boris.

In certain other times, that might have been seen as a strength - certainly in the medieval King.

But I think the direction of travel is turning against the ERGers of the Tory party. As all their mate in the US suddenly remember how much they love Democratic policies.

For now.

Yes I agree @RedToothBrush That's what I meant earlier about him looking relaxed and jovial at PMQ's.

I think he's definitely made the decision, and it's either to be charming tonight, accept what the EU ask and take their deal, or it's no deal. But either way, it's a done deal, and we just have to wait and find out what that is.

@TheMShip

So, 7pm UK time for BJ/VDL dinner (that sounds really awful, like venereal disease transmitted by oral sex). Bingo items - take a shot for any of:

• Moons von der Leyen, showing a Union Jack painted across his buttocks
• Attempts to seduce von der Leyen
• Walks out in a huff
• Begs on his knees
• Does a really awkward interpretive dance of his preferred trade deal
• Doesn't know where Folkestone is
• Vomits copiously
• Calls it off last minute because he has to self-isolate
• Phones a friend (Dominic Cummings? Carrie Symonds?)
• Orders takeaway, none of this foreign muck
• Opens the wrong box, Deal or No Deal style

you forgot *"Accidentally" gets locked in a large fridge

Recites amusingly xenophobic poetry

Quips a catchy 3 word slogan "Get dinner Done"

But either way, it's a done deal, and we just have to wait and find out what that is.
Well he'd better announce it ferkin fast
because the ports and airports NEED TO KNOW what codes to load into their software
yesterday

@ListeningQuietly

But either way, it's a done deal, and we just have to wait and find out what that is. Well he'd better announce it ferkin fast because the ports and airports NEED TO KNOW what codes to load into their software yesterday

Once again, you forget Boris priorities here. Which are basically Boris.

What was it he said ? Oh, yes: Fuck business

"There is no need to stockpile" they said.

Except if you are Tesco. Then you might consider preparing for the worst case scenario

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55246703
Brexit: Tesco stockpiles food in case of 'worst-case scenario' no-deal

Should I have gone to the supermarket today instead of tomorrow as I've planned?

On the plus side we have just got three massive bags of mozzeralla for the freezer. There will be no pizza shortage here.

What DGR said Listening...

Bookies favouring a deal:

Northern Ireland now has to comply with rules over which it has no say. So either Ireland advocates for it in the EU or nobody does.
Does anyone see a problem with that?

I mean, I hope it means NI and Ireland are on the road to reunification but that's hardly an easy path.

Ireland has been taking some interesting steps recently. First, the Taioseach is meeting with Arlene Foster to look at an Irish inquiry into alleged Irish police collusion in a number of murders by the Provisional IRA. Also, President Higgins has made a speech about greater frankness during this decade of important centenaries for Ireland . Quite apart from being the right thing generally, they seem to be all about making welcoming noises to NI. Wonder what others think. Maybe I'm reading too much into it and seeing what I want to see.

Can't say I'm particularly convinced by the BBCs take on Tesco. This is the same outfit that regularly run stories telling us all how super it is to have a disability (almost cool in fact). So I'm not convinced by their agenda.

Moreover a brief stop to consider (a) how much Tesco alone moves out of each store every day, plus (b) the complications for anything which isn't effectively dry goods, added to (c) the lack of serious warehouse space - in the right places - in the UK means I really can't see it achieving much beyond briefly saving on SEO fees.

LQ is the expert on this. What would their take on the UKs capacity to "stockpile" at this distance from 1st January 2021 be ?

(Just for balance, I've already asked the same question in a bar in Shitcreek county Missouri. And since I mentioned the BBC, we'll take the best answer, not necessarily the correct one.)

@titchy

Bookies favouring a deal:

Bookie's odds only reflect which way people are betting.

I have finally managed to get my elderly mum to agree to check the state of her fridge/larder.
I have kept quiet about having stashed a bit away on her behalf.
I'm anxious

Ireland has been taking some interesting steps recently. First, the Taioseach is meeting with Arlene Foster to look at an Irish inquiry into alleged Irish police collusion in a number of murders by the Provisional IRA. Also, President Higgins has made a speech about greater frankness during this decade of important centenaries for Ireland . Quite apart from being the right thing generally, they seem to be all about making welcoming noises to NI. Wonder what others think. Maybe I'm reading too much into it and seeing what I want to see.

If you were going to start a path to unification, how would it look ?

Oh, hang on, I've just remembered that I know fuck all about it.

Sorry.

As you were.

The Guardian seems to be implying No Deal because Boris says that no UK PM could accept the EU terms. Well, we shall see. After all, he was supposed to be dead in a ditch and here he is still very much alive.

[quote TheMShip]davidallengreen.com/2020/12/the-fork-in-the-road-to-brexit-boris-johnson-has-to-choose-between-being-irresponsible-or-being-unprincipled/[/quote]
Boris CHOOSE between being irresponsible and unprincipled?
He can't, according to evidence to date...

Weary PMK
thanks, @RedToothBrush et al.

@Peregrina

The Guardian seems to be implying No Deal because Boris says that no UK PM could accept the EU terms. Well, we shall see. After all, he was supposed to be dead in a ditch and here he is still very much alive.

Boris has said a lot of things that turned out to be utter bullshit.

Not really sure why anyone gives him the time of day.

He is a liar. A cheat. He is corrupt. And he has corrupted and sought to corrupt others.

What time will we hear which side Johnson has pandered to?

DGR
My knowledge on warehouses comes from a variety of sources
but last I heard they were running at over 90% capacity

my Local Sainsbury's is using the closed cafe as spare storage
and has just installed new freezers that have ambient racking space above them

the supermarkets are REALLY worried

around one of the previous Brexit dates I know one of the big ones leased a normal warehouse into which they planned to drive fridge trucks to create a chilled warehouse

the point in the media stories about empty returns is key

docks are full of empty containers that nobody wants to ship out to China
unless they know the terms of the next paying load back to Europe

EU truck drivers will start taking their units out of the UK before Christmas
until they know the clearance terms for their next productive load

it has always been about the boring problem of moving the goods
not the duty rate or any of that shit
the physical carrying from a to B

@Peregrina

The Guardian seems to be implying No Deal because Boris says that no UK PM could accept the EU terms. Well, we shall see. After all, he was supposed to be dead in a ditch and here he is still very much alive.

Peston is also tweeting that he doesn't see how the problems can be resolved...

Can we start a petition that any MP that votes for anything that comes of Boris' Blériot bash has to forever shut their gob about it ? (Hard stare at Andrew Bridgen).

It's very simple. If you don't like it, don't vote for it.