Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

PMK thank you as always, I'll just wait quietly here on the edge of my seat.

PMK with the cover of the wordsearch book my nephew was enjoying before school this morning. To RTB and regulars - so long and thanks for all the fish..? 🐠

I quite like the idea that Macron and Merkel were washing their hair when he wanted them on the call.

I have a question , if the clauses that were in the IMB are to be removed, does that need to be voted on in Parliament ?

(The fact the question needs to be asked highlights how shit our education system is).

Ouch ! So the government can withdraw stuff from the bill without having to take it to a vote in the HoC again, before it goes to the Lords ?

As I understand it Gove has repeatedly proved to be unpopular with the voters. He hasn't got the charisma or common touch that is unfathomably attributed to Cameron and Johnson by an electorate weaned on X Factor and Strictly.
Also, Brexit will be such a shit show that it would have to be someone who isn't seen to have had a direct hand in it. Isn't that why so many favour Sunak or Javid?

@DGRossetti, you overlook both the power of the tentacles and the sheer amount of carnage any successor to Johnson will deal with. If I were Sunak or Patel (for example), I would be standing aside until the shit has finished flying.

@frumpety

I have a question , if the clauses that were in the IMB are to be removed, does that need to be voted on in Parliament ?

(The fact the question needs to be asked highlights how shit our education system is).

Ouch ! So the government can withdraw stuff from the bill without having to take it to a vote in the HoC again, before it goes to the Lords ?

That's what I was guessing, yes. And my comment wasn't a dig at anyone. But why don't we teach our children how our fucking country works ????? Might have to put up with a tad less drivel that simply lowers the quality of debate.

The mechanisms around the drafting of laws isn't that transparent or intuitive.

I've never been so glad to not currently live in the UK. When the shit hits the fan in January, you're on you own.

The refusal of both local and national government to accept responsibility and plan for food shortages, while also failing to advise citizens of the likelihood of these shortages and their personal responsibility for securing their own food supplies, is a dereliction of duty.

yorkshirebylines.co.uk/national-and-local-government-fail-to-take-steps-to-protect-food-security/?fbclid=IwAR2i_Cw2RmDSLQMKyvS5ktzu_Q2BQccUDi2Zk49UtxKRc86SkoUJdCZVdGQ

No offence taken DG, I asked on here because you lot tend to be knowledgable and patient

And can usually spell better than me , knowledgeable , gah !

[quote FatCatThinCat]I've never been so glad to not currently live in the UK. When the shit hits the fan in January, you're on you own.

The refusal of both local and national government to accept responsibility and plan for food shortages, while also failing to advise citizens of the likelihood of these shortages and their personal responsibility for securing their own food supplies, is a dereliction of duty.

yorkshirebylines.co.uk/national-and-local-government-fail-to-take-steps-to-protect-food-security/?fbclid=IwAR2i_Cw2RmDSLQMKyvS5ktzu_Q2BQccUDi2Zk49UtxKRc86SkoUJdCZVdGQ[/quote]
Be curious to know what the fuck government are responsible for then ? Considering they cost so much to do it.

Just watching PMQ's, Johnson seems very relaxed and more jovial than usual. Do we think that's because he has a deal and this jetting off to Brussels business is just theatre? Or he really doesn't give a toss if we no deal so isn't really bothered either way?

PMK thank you

A perspective I have seen in the Irish press is that the removal of the IMB clauses and the good progress that has been made on ensuring that the implementation of the NI protocol is fit for purpose can be read as the UK ensuring the path is open for a potential US trade agreement rather than any good indication that a deal is on the way...

TurquoiseBaubles try Amazon.fr ? they often have the same stock and you'll avoid the tax hassle. The Swiss have the same problems with getting deliveries etc from EU companies or Amazon, so either they find a French colleague willing to accept delivery or now there are Amazon collections boxes in supermarkets on the French side. Will be a bit more difficult to organise on GB but I can see the potential in NI.... My mum used to get manage to get Mothercare delivered to Donegal in the seventies by putting Northern Ireland at the end of the address, so maybe the same will work for Newry, Co Louth

So if Trafford isn't out of T3 on the 16th December review I will be well and truly amazed. Possibly along with Stockport ( cough Hazel Grove and Cheadle are somewhat marginal and liberal leaning seats cough) and Tameside. I suspect Bury to be T3 still btw rather than the whole of G Manchester going to T2.

Nice of Graham Brady to do something useful for once! I live in a non-marginal bit of Stockport, but I’m happy to also benefit from these political manoeuvrings.

Btw, in terms of Kent and Brexit, its not lost on me that its almost handy its definitely going to be T3 into January. Can you imagine if traffic levels were completely normal?

I don’t think T3 necessarily = less traffic, having enjoyed the dubious pleasure of the A34 during rush hour this morning

Why are they so desperate to do trade deals with the US and thereby sacrifice some sovereignty, but belonging to the EU and having a say in the rules is a complete No No?

Will the removal of the clauses in the IMB be enough of a sweetener for the Biden administration? I rather think not.

Interesting
I have long to the point of even boring you lot predicted that the supply chain would grind to a halt by December 23rd

I was out by two weeks - because of COVID

It will be interesting to see how the juggling of the Tiers goes next Wednesday
because Tier 3 to quell potential unrest will have its appeal

The news stories about the big container ports are borne out by the sound of horns and sirens at the local docks this morning

Queen the traffic is definitely down in my neck of the woods.

Except on Sunday Afternoons when its spot the piss head going for Sunday Lunch in Cheshire and then driving back to Greater Manchester. There are many of them.

Why are they so desperate to do trade deals with the US and thereby sacrifice some sovereignty, but belonging to the EU and having a say in the rules is a complete No No?

More chance of tasty backhanders for Tory MPs from US corporations than the EU.

@Mistigri

I still think a deal is marginally more likely than no deal, although this is tea-leaf gazing at this point.

Why do I think that?

• the big backdown on the NI protocol/IMB
• the fact that ports are already in a serious amount of trouble before Brexit impacts even begin in earnest

This government does not have the state resources to handle serious public unrest (without sending the army in - but then we really are in the end game for this government).

I’d love you to be right and I hope my tea leaves are wrong but I think no deal is far more likely. I can’t see a deal at this point.

I think they want managed no deal which isn’t a thing.

LQ Hope the hedgehog is ok. Not good news about the ports.

There's been more stories about the possibility of food shortages, there was another one on BBC news yesterday, I don't have the link for that one. It's much more on the news now. A little bit late though.

Brexit: Tesco stockpiles food in case of 'worst-case scenario' no-deal
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55246703

From a weather point of view -i'm seeing some signals for potentially disruptive cold weather around the end of the year. Chances at present: low but rising. All I can say is I hope the portaloos in Kent have plenty of de-icer in them.

TBH any deal we get at this stage will be crap
almost better to go No Deal
let reality hit for a few weeks
have the Express sucking up to the WTO
and THEN go cap in hand to see what the EU have oven ready for us

they do not want a basket case between France and Ireland
the French want to sell cheese and wine
so a deal will happen
but February is almost better than December IMHO

also Biden will be in post by then

I left the UK in March (completely because of Brexit). I have sometimes wondered whether I should have stayed. Now I know I did the right thing. My only problem is that my income is in sterling and that may dip agaianst the euro if this shitshow comes to pass, as I have predicted for years that it will...

So, 7pm UK time for BJ/VDL dinner (that sounds really awful, like venereal disease transmitted by oral sex). Bingo items - take a shot for any of:

• Moons von der Leyen, showing a Union Jack painted across his buttocks
• Attempts to seduce von der Leyen
• Walks out in a huff
• Begs on his knees
• Does a really awkward interpretive dance of his preferred trade deal
• Doesn't know where Folkestone is
• Vomits copiously
• Calls it off last minute because he has to self-isolate
• Phones a friend (Dominic Cummings? Carrie Symonds?)
• Orders takeaway, none of this foreign muck
• Opens the wrong box, Deal or No Deal style