Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

Thanks LQ.

So the idea that any supermarket can "stockpile" their way out of this is a bit fat BBC "in other news" lie ?

Which option is Best for Boris?
( A nice three word slogan there.)

@DGRossetti

Thanks LQ.

So the idea that any supermarket can "stockpile" their way out of this is a bit fat BBC "in other news" lie ?

Definitely. There is not enough warehousing in the whole UK to replace JIT

Lots of big box warehouses have been built since the Brexit vote
but they are a drop in the ocean compared with the
artic per night per supermarket
level needed

They are doing their best and have been quietly preparing for the worst
but the fridge aisles are going to be a bit different next month

I cannot see a way that will keep the flow smooth
deal or no deal

@Peregrina

Which option is Best for Boris? ( A nice three word slogan there.)

That's the question we should really have been researching since he became PM. Although it's complicated by him being such a fucking twat.

If we follow his pre-2019 GE persona, he'll want to leave office up there with one of the "five great Tory" PMs (I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to name the other 4). Obviously that's never going to happen now, so what's the next best thing ?

(Slight diversion here, but "Boris' Brexit" has a terrible funereal ring to it ... I can see families in 2040 discussing their lot over cabbage soup blaming it on "Boris Brexit" ....)

Ideally he'll engineer it so he skips with something "achieved" and then spend longer securing his legacy than he ever spent as PM.

Erm Churchill as one.

I can tell you who won't feature as great: Eden, Chamberlain, Peel. Cameron the jury is probably still out on - if Ireland reunifies and Scotland gains independence then the break up of the UK could be laid at his door.

@Peregrina

Erm Churchill as one.

I can tell you who won't feature as great: Eden, Chamberlain, Peel. Cameron the jury is probably still out on - if Ireland reunifies and Scotland gains independence then the break up of the UK could be laid at his door.

It's an interesting diversion, waiting for the HooDoo, to try and name what would be the UKs equivalent of the five good emperors. With a warning that we tend to look closer to now than into history. Which is why Churchill might not figure ????

I think Heath, for getting us into the EEC alone

As for Cameron, I feel sorry for anyone with that surname as it might become as tainted as the Campbells. And it's too easily preceded with other words that begin with "C" just for posterity ....

Astroturf
Why are we getting so much of it on any and every thread related to the end of Transition
lots of new posters with similar format names
and similar posting styles
writing word soup
to deflect blame away from the Cabinet
I wonder .....

Yes, it could be good to speculate on various PM's legacies - I don't think May will feature anywhere much. A woman who became PM at the wrong time - at a time of stability she might have been one who was seen as competent but rather dull.

@Peregrina

Yes, it could be good to speculate on various PM's legacies - I don't think May will feature anywhere much. A woman who became PM at the wrong time - at a time of stability she might have been one who was seen as competent but rather dull.

No 21st century PM thus far even gets up to 5 on a scale of 100.

And in 50 years, you'll probably have to Google "Theresa May", much as I would have needed a reference book to know who Ramsey McDonald or Bonar Law were.

I think there might be some argument for John Major - especially as a comparator for that spineless chump Cameron (what did I say about "c" words ?). Like many I was antipathetic at the time to say the least. But with the GFA having secured the end of something I had grown up thinking was a way of life in Britain, peacemakers should always trump warmongers.

And I know that there were many other people that helped deliver the GFA too. But it took a lot of courage to start that process in 1992 - even as the bombs were flying.

@ListeningQuietly

Astroturf Why are we getting so much of it on any and every thread related to the end of Transition lots of new posters with similar format names and similar posting styles writing word soup to deflect blame away from the Cabinet I wonder .....

Interesting observation. The same thing happened at the last cliff edge.

Anyone would think that they were worried. Surely it's a win win for them, a poor deal or no deal? It helps to confirm their Brexit.

@Peregrina

Anyone would think that they were worried. Surely it's a win win for them, a poor deal or no deal? It helps to confirm their Brexit.

On a morbid but valid note, I wonder how many people that voted Leave in 2016 are still alive ? And how that balances against people who were 17 last year ?

.

@DGRossetti If there is any kind of upside to all this it is that more young people are becoming politically aware. Brexit plus the recent exams fiascos, the governments handling of this pandemic and of course climate change means there is a very different bunch of voters on the way up.

This article is well worth a read - it is quite short but to the point
hbr.org/2020/12/lessons-from-brexit-on-how-not-to-negotiate

[quote ListeningQuietly]This article is well worth a read - it is quite short but to the point
hbr.org/2020/12/lessons-from-brexit-on-how-not-to-negotiate[/quote]
Very naive author, I'm afraid.

PMK

I’m hoping Misti is right.

DGR
I took the article as being part of the learn from their mistakes scenarios

a bit like the old QE2 Hamburg refit
which was in management textbooks within months

@ListeningQuietly

DGR I took the article as being part of the learn from their mistakes scenarios

a bit like the old QE2 Hamburg refit
which was in management textbooks within months

Don't get me wrong - it was a very good guide to negotiation.

The problem was it sort of presumed Brexit was about negotiation and securing a good deal for the UK. Which it never was. Brexit was only ever about securing lots of lolly for the Odeys and Banks' of this world, and leaving a scorched earth behind for the Singapore-on-Thames vulture capitalists to pick over. With the added genius of getting Brexiteers to go and buy the petrol and slosh it about before they fucked off to light the fuse.

@Peregrina

The Guardian seems to be implying No Deal because Boris says that no UK PM could accept the EU terms. Well, we shall see. After all, he was supposed to be dead in a ditch and here he is still very much alive.

I don’t see how a PM can go to a meeting saying no PM could accept the terms and come home having accepted them. I’m taking that as a statement of intent.

I think they’re after a managed no deal, which the EU are not offering.

We will "prosper mightily as an independent nation" says Johnson as he leaves for Brussels.

Fuck the fuck off you lying fucker.

I am so angry about this shit.

Fancy that ?!

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/westminster-news/boris-johnson-brussels-trip-just-for-show-6658992

A former EU diplomat has described Boris Johnson's last-minute meeting in Brussels as 'just for show', claiming the prime minister was adamant about pursuing a no-deal Brexit.

Sir Ivan Rogers, the former UK ambassador to the EU, said Johnson had intervened in Brexit talks too late to yield a positive result.

Rogers said officials in Brussels believe Johnson is not serious about a deal and that Wednesday's meeting with EU president Ursula von der Leyen was nothing more than political theatre.

He said many felt the gathering was "just a necessary step in the framing of the blame game for a 'no deal' outcome."

Rogers told POLITICO: "If I were advising someone who actively wanted a deal, I would have been advising him to get heavily engaged in serious face-to-face discussions at top level very much earlier.

(contd)

Paywalled
but the headline says all you need to know
www.nytimes.com/2020/12/09/world/europe/boris-johnson-brussels-brexit.html

Jon Jones
@JonJonesSnr
·
4h
Michael Gove actually boasting that Northern Ireland will “enjoy the best of both worlds: access to the EU single market and at the same time unfettered access to the rest of the UK market.”

Isn’t that what we all had?

Interesting article I thought. Weird how the author pulled his punches when talking about David Cameron and his "negotiation".