Realistically, how close are we to a deal?

[Woahisme]

I have read multiple articles on this, some more up to date than others, saying we could get a deal. Now it looks as though we might not. How likely is it that we will?

I don't know - the country did turn against the death penalty after David Bentley, Hanratty and Ruth Ellis were hanged. Ruth Ellis undoubtedly did shoot her lover although after just suffering a miscarriage, which in France would have led her to avoid the death penalty; the other two were very doubtful.

Reading the headlines this morning - I think we are heading for No Deal. I I don't even think Boris wants a deal, I think I he just wants to "prove" he has done all he can so he can blame the EU when we get a No Deal.

Cynical? Moi?

Depressing

There will be basic stuff to keep planes in the air and lorries on the road but I think it'll be no deal.

WTO from Jan 1 then talks will start again next year, probably addressing urgent things individually as they arise which means a very long and drawn out process

I voted remain but we can’t except what us there currently? Or do people feel differently.

I voted to remain because it was clear from the get go the Leave campaign had no clear cut plan (how could they?), also it was led by a band of crooks who I wouldn't trust with crayons. Integrity is not something the people who fronted the Leave campaign value.

I scoffed at 'easiest trade deals in history'. I will probably get accused of Ĺeave Bashing now - but who gives a stuff? There's a hell of a lot to bash, and when you put your incompetence out there in full view of the world, I'd say you are fair game.

@Peregrina

I don't know - the country did turn against the death penalty after David Bentley, Hanratty and Ruth Ellis were hanged. Ruth Ellis undoubtedly did shoot her lover although after just suffering a miscarriage, which in France would have led her to avoid the death penalty; the other two were very doubtful.

Hanratty was guilty. Sorry.

And Ellis disregard for innocent bystanders pretty much did for her.

Bentley and Evans are the real cases that provoked the public.

I am not sure that Hanratty was guilty. There was a theory that someone called Peter Alfonson (or something similar) was guilty. Hanratty was a petty crook but that didn't make him a murderer. Either way there was enough doubt for people to be disturbed by it. I am old enough to remember the Hanratty case well.

You only now have to think about some of the Irish convictions which have been found to have been unsafe, to be relieved that we no longer have it.

But we digress and I think it would be touch and go about a vote for the death penalty. I remember there was a vote in Parliament and thankfully my then Tory MP, who I had little time for normally, did at least vote against.

Gosh, if only
experts had warned referendum voters in May 2016 about following the rules but having no say in them

the govt had warned us in April 2016 that Brexit meant following the rules but having no say in them

independent fact checkers in May 2016 had confirmed that access to the single market after Brexit meant following the rules but having no say in them

I am not sure that Hanratty was guilty.

DNA evidence from the 2000s proved it to the satisfaction of the CoA

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Hanratty#DNA_evidence_and_appeal_in_2002

Bear in mind I reject the death penalty in all and any situations from a moral and ethical stance. And had I been on Hanrattys jury I would have voted not guilty regardless of evidence if it prevented a hanging. But I'm not an anarchist and have no problem with the concept of criminal justice.

@MarshaBradyo

I voted remain but we can’t except what us there currently? Or do people feel differently.

You're right that we cant expect what we have as a member state however the EU were open to a far closer arrangement than any deal that can now be done. Let's not forget Vote Leave and Boris promised we wouldnt leave the Customs Union and single Market, under no deal we wont even have an agreement like the EU have with other 3rd countries.

Even if they can still agree to a remove tariffs (and that's a big if) there are numerous costly other barriers to trade that risk putting companies out of business.

One very small example is the increased cost of pallets to move goods to the EU from 1 Jan (I think each pallet goes from £6 to £26). That alone could make trade for some businesses unviable.

I remember Daniel Hannan banging on about Liechtenstein and saying that they don't have Freedom of Movement and therefore it would be possible for us not to have Freedom of Movement. Forgetting that Liechtenstein is a small mountainous country with a population the size of Oxford and nowhere much to put more people.

@Peregrina

I remember Daniel Hannan banging on about Liechtenstein and saying that they don't have Freedom of Movement and therefore it would be possible for us not to have Freedom of Movement. Forgetting that Liechtenstein is a small mountainous country with a population the size of Oxford and nowhere much to put more people.

One of the irritations if not idiocies of Brexit has been pointing to all sorts of countries in a specific area and saying But has

Which really defeats the point of being unique, surely ?

And it's funny how when you point to country and say "oh, look they have a good system of " you get told "Ah, but that wouldn't work for the UK".

It's hard to fight the creeping impression that the world is moving forwards at a different, possibly slightly faster pace than the UK. Which is grimly ironic as going back to the 80s and 90s and one of the key attractions of the UK was how quickly it could adapt to the new.

I hope nobody has booked holidays to the EU for next Spring .....

My work colleagues reckon it wont be a complete disaster, just that food prices will go up.

I think they haven't thought about the full picture. It will bite hard

Raab says food shortages are a bump in the road in the event of no deal.

I still say BJ does not want a deal.

So, it doesn't matter what the EU offers, he'll reject anything and everything, and blame their "intransigence".

I don't suppose Raab will go short of a meal. I very much doubt that those dependent on food banks will just think of it as a bump in the road.

I was thinking the same Peregrina. He needs to climb out of his ivory tower. I dont know how any media outlet can put a good news spin on this right now. They will give it a shot though .

@Igotjelly

Even if they can still agree to a remove tariffs (and that's a big if) there are numerous costly other barriers to trade that risk putting companies out of business.

One very small example is the increased cost of pallets to move goods to the EU from 1 Jan (I think each pallet goes from £6 to £26). That alone could make trade for some businesses unviable.

That small example is worth posting about. It’s the incremental increases that will make things too difficult. I hope it is overcome in some way.

It makes me so angry, the people who voted for it will be blamed and told they "got what they voted for" when in reality how on earth was the average persom meant to understand the real implications. Then on top of that they were consistently lied to.

And I dread to think of the impact this could have to the fragile peace on Northern Irland.

@Igotjelly

It makes me so angry, the people who voted for it will be blamed and told they "got what they voted for" when in reality how on earth was the average persom meant to understand the real implications. Then on top of that they were consistently lied to.

And I dread to think of the impact this could have to the fragile peace on Northern Irland.

Well, yes and no. I fully agree about N Ireland, and I think it's criminal that they (brexiters) could even contemplate destroying what is still a fragile peace.

As to the rest - I think we need to distinguish between the average person and the Brexiters like those in Government. Back in 2016 people genuinely thought there would be more money for the NHS, and I don't think anyone can be blamed for wanting that.

It's a different matter for those who voted Tory last year. By then they knew exactly what Johnson was like, they had seen his slippery behaviour, they knew that he was a liar, yet decided to trust him.

For those who placed their faith in him; just a reminder as to what was happening 12 months ago, probably to the day.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=nj-YK3JJCIU

Makes me vom.