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Brexit

Westminstenders: Governing by U-Turn

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2020 01:45

Johnson's determination to get brexit done and to have 'a clean break from Europe' on terms which involve other countries happily returning fishing rights they bought from us (without recompense for the said previous purchase) in addition to the EU accepting terms they don't feel create a level playingfield and risk their economic future make any deal impossible. Our demands simply aren't achievable.

The alternative is adherence to the Withdrawal Agreement in which we are unable to bail out businesses via state aid and to have no deal which creates huge trade barriers and tarriffs overnight and massive customs red tape which we simply are not yet prepared for because the systems for running this are running behind schedule. This would lead to massive food shortages and Brexit lorry parks throughout the country for the forseeable future.

Johnson's latest bright idea is that he seems to think he can avoid chaos by a strategy which would cause even more chaos by deliberately reneging on the withdrawal agreement which is an international agreement just months after throwing a hissy fit for China doing exactly the same thing. This wouldn't just be hypocritical but would make a mockery of our credibility internationally and potentially endanger every other international agreement we've currently in place because well, why should anyone else stick to an agreement with the UK.

We could face years of legal wrangles with god knows which countries and businesses suing the British government.

But y'know Johnson thinks this is a sensible strategy and a cracking plan to force Brussels to blink first rather than actually take the subject seriously and do something in the country's interest rather than prevent Johnson from damaging his internal reputation with leave voters and because he thinks this is the correct hill to die on to prove he doesn't govern by u-turn. Johnson's ego seems more important to him than feeding the nation and having an international reputation.

Or he could do another u-turn.

OP posts:
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Peregrina · 08/09/2020 10:36

Cummings is almost certainly trying to break the country. Johnson? I don't know. He's probably right now going 'Oh crumbs, this isn't what is supposed to happen.'

Darker · 08/09/2020 10:36

Squid I feel the same.

quiteathome · 08/09/2020 10:37

Just bumped into a neighbour. He went off on one about the uselessness of this government. And then was talking about plaster, and it not being easy to get hold of and how much worse that is going to be when Boris has messsed everything up in January.

DGRossetti · 08/09/2020 10:48

@squid4

This feels a bit tinfoil hat, but ... is whoever is funding Johnson just... trying to break the country ? All faith in democracy / our international standing ... are they just showing how fast you can destroy a country?

Maybe I'm just tired and that's ridiculous.

I did post that a couple of years ago. People were convinced that Putin wanted the UK out of the EU. I felt that it was a bit more subtle and that it was far better to completely destabilise the UK than arrive at a single definite position.
ListeningQuietly · 08/09/2020 11:00

MrsL
The Government Brexit adverts are utterly rubbish.
Factually incorrect about tariffs and procedures
they are getting roasted on Linkedin
and everybody who is an expert is staying well clear

Darker · 08/09/2020 11:01

I suspect a variety of players with motives ranging from weakening the EU to personal gain. The tragedy is that I can't see the average man on the street who actually voted for it getting anything in return for their 'X'

DGRossetti · 08/09/2020 11:11

Here's some Mad Hatter logic for you.

If the UK does break the WA and cause the US to refuse to do a deal, we won't be seeing any chlorinated chicken anytime soon.

www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1332349/brexit-latest-news-boris-johnson-us-trade-deal-irish-border-northern-ireland-protocol

Notice that's the Express ...

OchonAgusOchonO · 08/09/2020 11:13

@BigChocFrenzy - Consent must be "concurrent," but polls do not have to be so and the GFA does not require the RoI govt to organise a poll within any timeframe of an NI Yes - afaik, does not require them to organise a poll at all, if they decide their people do not wish reunification, or that it would be unwise

All of that is true but if NI voted for reunification and RoI didn't at least conduct a poll pretty quickly afterwards, it would be very much contrary to the spirit, if not the letter, of the GFA. If nothing else, it would be a total betrayal of the nationalist community of NI. I suspect there would also be court cases to try and force a poll.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2020 11:58

[quote OchonAgusOchonO]**@BigChocFrenzy* - Consent must be "concurrent," but polls do not have to be so and the GFA does not require the RoI govt to organise a poll within any timeframe of an NI Yes - afaik, does not require them to organise a poll at all, if they decide their people do not wish reunification, or that it would be unwise*

All of that is true but if NI voted for reunification and RoI didn't at least conduct a poll pretty quickly afterwards, it would be very much contrary to the spirit, if not the letter, of the GFA. If nothing else, it would be a total betrayal of the nationalist community of NI. I suspect there would also be court cases to try and force a poll.[/quote]
...
My point is that the GFA gives the right of NI to leave the UK, but does not force the RoI to agree to let them join.

Court cases would be of dubious practical use, since any country's right to self-determination must include the right not to be forced into an unwanted union,
the RoI just as much as NI.

One of the many problems with Brexit - and especially the disgraceful handling of it since the ref -
is that it inflames sentiment in NI
and hence an NI poll might be rushed in, years before Unionists have got used to the idea of peaceful Reunification - and before the RoI public can prepare for it, too

BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2020 12:03

52% in NI and say 60-65% in the RoI would probably not be sufficient for a peaceful and widely accepted reunification,
given the long decades of hatred and violence between the 2 communities in NI

Germany had almost noone opposed to reunification,
(but still had great disagreement about resolving finances etc)

DGRossetti · 08/09/2020 12:06

I have a lot of faith in the Irish to be able to accommodate unification even if it's under less than ideal circumstances.

The biggest issue I can see would be the rights of the as yet unborn children of Unionists. Would they be entitled to British citizenship ? If so, what would that mean for a United Republic of Ireland where a proportion of it's citizens are dual citizens in perpetuity ?

Which is not an economic issue.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2020 12:07

Not another one !

  • I've lost count of the numbers of Perm Secs either being forced out or resigning because they can't agree to what they are being ordered to do

Sir Jonathan Jones has resigned as the permanent secretary of the government legal department.
According to the Financial Times (paywall),
Jones has resigned following a dispute with No 10 about its plans to override parts of the withdrawal agreement.

The FT says:

Two officials with knowledge of the situation told the Financial Times that the Treasury solicitor and permanent secretary of the Government Legal Department was leaving his position due to a dispute with Downing Street over its plans to challenge parts of the Brexit withdrawal agreement.

Those close to Sir Jonathan said he was “very unhappy” about the decision to overwrite parts of the Northern Ireland protocol,
part of the 2019 withdrawal agreement, with new powers in the UK internal market bill.

DGRossetti · 08/09/2020 12:09

@BigChocFrenzy

Not another one !
  • I've lost count of the numbers of Perm Secs either being forced out or resigning because they can't agree to what they are being ordered to do

Sir Jonathan Jones has resigned as the permanent secretary of the government legal department.
According to the Financial Times (paywall),
Jones has resigned following a dispute with No 10 about its plans to override parts of the withdrawal agreement.

The FT says:

Two officials with knowledge of the situation told the Financial Times that the Treasury solicitor and permanent secretary of the Government Legal Department was leaving his position due to a dispute with Downing Street over its plans to challenge parts of the Brexit withdrawal agreement.

Those close to Sir Jonathan said he was “very unhappy” about the decision to overwrite parts of the Northern Ireland protocol,
part of the 2019 withdrawal agreement, with new powers in the UK internal market bill.

I did say yesterday ...
BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2020 12:13

"Would they be entitled to British citizenship ?"

Undoubtedly and permanently, just like those in NI are entitled to Irish citizenship
it only causes problems when the UK govt decides to discriminate for certain civil service jobs

it would presumably lapse at some stage of generations after reunification, just as Irish citizenship lapses after grandchildren, once they move outside Ireland

Note:
The armed forces take people of any citizenship, including Commonwealth and other nationalities
I'd expect them to have a higher need for security / loyalty than almost any other part of the public sector.

Arlene has said she would move to GB if reunification happened
Something for you to look forward too

BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2020 12:16

"I did say yesterday ..."

Yes, but he doesn't stop it happening
The govt will promote someone who will agree to work on this
Even if it means a mediocre choice - in fact, probably easier to control, as that person would be so greatful for the chance

The civil service is being politically cleansed,
both by those choosing / being forced to leave and by govt choices of their replacements

borntobequiet · 08/09/2020 12:17

Interview with Brendan Boyle, Dem congressman on the Ways and Means Committee, on Today this morning at about 06:50, spelling out in the clearest terms that if the GFA is compromised by the UK's reneging on the WA, there will be no trade deal with the USA.
I thought like most of us that the issue was resolved last December when the British signed up to the international treaty setting out the WA making sure the GFA would not be violated and there wasn’t a danger of a return to a hard border on the island of Ireland. So the fact that now, less than a year later, we’re back at this point is a genuinely shocking development.
I was going to transcribe the whole thing but haven't had time...

OchonAgusOchonO · 08/09/2020 12:20

@BigChocFrenzy - My point is that the GFA gives the right of NI to leave the UK, but does not force the RoI to agree to let them join.

And I get that. But we still have a moral responsibility to the people of the north. We can't just abandon that responsibility because it's inconvenient.

Court cases would be of dubious practical use, since any country's right to self-determination must include the right not to be forced into an unwanted union, the RoI just as much as NI.

A constitutional challenge could interpret article 3 as requiring a reciprocal referendum:

It is the firm will of the Irish Nation, in harmony and friendship, to unite all the people who share the territory of the island of Ireland, in all the diversity of their identities and traditions, recognising that a united Ireland shall be brought about only by peaceful means with the consent of a majority of the people, democratically expressed, in both jurisdictions in the island. Until then, the laws enacted by the Parliament established by this Constitution shall have the like area and extent of application as the laws enacted by the Parliament that existed immediately before the coming into operation of this Constitution.

One of the many problems with Brexit - and especially the disgraceful handling of it since the ref - is that it inflames sentiment in NI and hence an NI poll might be rushed in, years before Unionists have got used to the idea of peaceful Reunification - and before the RoI public can prepare for it, too

That is exactly what I am afraid of.

OchonAgusOchonO · 08/09/2020 12:30

@DGRossetti - The biggest issue I can see would be the rights of the as yet unborn children of Unionists. Would they be entitled to British citizenship ? If so, what would that mean for a United Republic of Ireland where a proportion of it's citizens are dual citizens in perpetuity ?

Dual citizenship wouldn't be a major issue. There might be a potential issue if the current situation where citizens can be Irish, British or both, continues. Mind you, the UK has refused to recognise that right even though they agreed to it in the GFA. They require anyone who wants to be seen as Irish only to revoke British citizenship, a citizenship that anyone who sees themselves as only Irish rejects as something not applicable to them.

Words · 08/09/2020 12:38

Cummings' MO is to place honourable people in invidious positions.
'Hard rain' indeed.
Austerity got rid of a lot of long-standing talent at all levels. Cummings is tackling the rest, top down.
The CS is being hollowed out and senior leaders replaced by mediocre yes-people.
It's appalling and I despair.

Sostenueto · 08/09/2020 12:41

Senior Whitehall guy just resigned over BJs chucking Withdrawal Agreement. He dies the legal stuff but did not catch his name.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2020 12:42

@Sostenueto

Senior Whitehall guy just resigned over BJs chucking Withdrawal Agreement. He dies the legal stuff but did not catch his name.
.... see upthread: Sir Jonathan Jones
Sostenueto · 08/09/2020 12:44

Oh sorry missed it lol!

borntobequiet · 08/09/2020 12:54

I did like the bit in the interview with Congressman Boyle where the idea of no free trade agreement was characterised as a "threat" and he responded by saying it was reality.

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