Westminstenders: Governing by U-Turn

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson's determination to get brexit done and to have 'a clean break from Europe' on terms which involve other countries happily returning fishing rights they bought from us (without recompense for the said previous purchase) in addition to the EU accepting terms they don't feel create a level playingfield and risk their economic future make any deal impossible. Our demands simply aren't achievable.

The alternative is adherence to the Withdrawal Agreement in which we are unable to bail out businesses via state aid and to have no deal which creates huge trade barriers and tarriffs overnight and massive customs red tape which we simply are not yet prepared for because the systems for running this are running behind schedule. This would lead to massive food shortages and Brexit lorry parks throughout the country for the forseeable future.

Johnson's latest bright idea is that he seems to think he can avoid chaos by a strategy which would cause even more chaos by deliberately reneging on the withdrawal agreement which is an international agreement just months after throwing a hissy fit for China doing exactly the same thing. This wouldn't just be hypocritical but would make a mockery of our credibility internationally and potentially endanger every other international agreement we've currently in place because well, why should anyone else stick to an agreement with the UK.

We could face years of legal wrangles with god knows which countries and businesses suing the British government.

But y'know Johnson thinks this is a sensible strategy and a cracking plan to force Brussels to blink first rather than actually take the subject seriously and do something in the country's interest rather than prevent Johnson from damaging his internal reputation with leave voters and because he thinks this is the correct hill to die on to prove he doesn't govern by u-turn. Johnson's ego seems more important to him than feeding the nation and having an international reputation.

Or he could do another u-turn.

DGR
what is the position of a subject in country that has abandoned international law ?

It's a position that is called 'You Are Screwed'.

Quiteathome Do Ireland want reunification with the North? My Irish friend seems to think that a lot in the south are not keen on that idea.

@OchonAgusOchonO
Some do, some don't. I think a majority would support the idea in principle but would be very worried about the economic impact. A small majority in favour in NI would also probably result in violence from loyalists.

If the EU were prepared to ease the transition to a 32 county state with financial help and Ireland wasn't forced to carry the entire can it's very possible that reunification wouldn't cause too much of a negative impact.

I can't believe Germany wouldn't have a good idea of the sort of financial support that might make a difference.

Sadly, I don't think the hardline Loyalists would be dancing in the streets upon reunification regardless of how it came about. There will always be a small minority who refuse to budge on the issue.

I think it will happen sooner rather than later. Many of those who voted to remain in the EU in NI did so in defiance of DUP policy and probably for the first time in their lives voted for what their nationalist neighbours voted for. NI is a region of small farms which are almost completely dependent on EU subsidies. Brexit threatens the future of farming in a region where pride in the small family farm runs very deep.

Is this a rebranded 'support us or we'll make sure you starve' policy as advocated by Priti Patel some time ago?

Yes - hopefully there is an equal and opposite pressure point available for Ireland and the EU. Maybe it's time to call the Congressional Friends of Ireland.

The problem with expecting a majority to agree that there is something amiss in Boris Johnson's disgracefully cavalier attitude to his classical studies is that there are huge numbers of people in Britain who like the sort of bloke who thumbs his nose at the teacher/refuses to wear a mask/complains that Spanish people speak Spanish in Spain. He has a personality that resonates.

.............
The public elementary schools and high school in my municipality are all online only this year. Private schools have opened with masks mandatory. The big city school district next door is also also online. People here wear masks out and about and in all enclosed spaces. You can't get past the door of a supermarket or the library without one. Fingers crossed still. Nobody wants to guess what the winter will bring.

DH - who works on the DGR of tech businesses...... pointed out WHO has quite strict rules on subsidies.... also doesn't believe the US would tolerate huge subsidies in the tech businesses so rules would be part of an FTA - I am awaiting the next toddler tantrum when they discover they can't do exacwhat they want.....

Sorry - autocorrect changed "edge" to DGR

Already a school in Haverhill shut because 7 teachers tested positive. This was a couple of days ago. Also outbreak in Attleborough chicken factory 200 tested positive out of 400. Now Norfolk on Government watch list and promise of extra funds for council ,( yes right just like summer school catch-ups and PC's for deprived)

Apparently on radio 4 this morning threatening to tear up withdrawal agreement is a ploy to draw out Starmer.

twitter.com/govuk/status/1296709739234177025?s=21

Have the ads always talked about tariffs? Or are these new this morning? I remember seeing there's going to be changes (undefined) but not specifically mentioning tariffs

If the threat to tear up the WA was to get at Starmer, I hope he's got the sense not to fall for it.

I think myself they were kite flying - let's try this idea out and see if we get away with it. Or just noises to appease the right wing, who will never be appeased.

"your tariff, which is currently £0, is changing" 🤦🏻‍♀️

@mathanxiety - If the EU were prepared to ease the transition to a 32 county state with financial help and Ireland wasn't forced to carry the entire can it's very possible that reunification wouldn't cause too much of a negative impact.

I think the EU would definitely provide financial support which would certainly ease the impact. Unfortunately, I don't think financial support would be enough if they majority voting for reunification is small.

I can't believe Germany wouldn't have a good idea of the sort of financial support that might make a difference.

Big difference between reunification of Ireland and Germany is that east and west Germans were all Germans. NI is made up of Irish and British people so those who feel very strongly that they are British are less likely to be swayed by financial support.

I am not sure that it's so black and white with Germany. It was only unified in the 19th century, so I suspect for example that some parts still see themselves as Prussian and don't feel they have a great lot in common with the Germans of N Rhine-Westphalia.

A big difference with NI and RoI would be that until now, they were both operating under the single market and customs union, not one part Capitalist and one part Communist.

@Peregrina - they are certainly valid points but I think the level of Britishness, and abhorance of all things Irish, felt by more extreme loyalists/unionists means they will never accept a united Ireland. More moderates are likely to accept a united Ireland for economic reasons but do so grudgingly. That's not ideal either.

My concern is what will happen if only a small majority vote for reunification. A more gradual approach would, I think, have led to a united Ireland more naturally and with a large majority. An abrupt border poll that comes about because of brexit is unlikely to have a large majority and likely to be more difficult.

sostuenueto I heard that too, I believe the words used were "to break Labour's Trappist silence" which had me laughing as it was rather funny.

I hope the Irish government would look at Sturgeon's strategy of waiting until there is a substantial majority for a yes vote
and not be bounced into an early ref themselves, after a narrow NI Yes vote

Brexit should have shown the national divisions that decision-making by 52% causes

Every Tory MP is apparently supposed to make a screeching U-turn to follow BJ

November 2019:
BJ proudly proclaimed before the GE that every Tory parliamentary candidate has personally pledged to vote his WA through the HoC

September:
this same WA "never made sense"

It's his way of emasculating the MPs - the ones who are still in favour have all become hopelessly compromised by contradicting themselves and defending the indefensible.

This can't be sustained for long, so the question is, how long does this need to be sustained for? Whose interests are being served? I can't see the Tories wanting to govern the post-austerity, post-Brexit, post-Covid wasteland and battleground for NI and Scottish independence.

World-beating Brexit is like the world-beating test system:

England's Covid testing troubles: 'Something is clearly going wrong'

It seems particularly unwise to send unwell & possibly infected people on hundred-mile journeys, as they may stop for fuel, the loo etc including those with stomach problems
System is inadequate now - this needs to be sorted properly, before winter

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/sep/08/englands-covid-testing-troubles-something-is-clearly-going-wrong

"if you haven’t received results from a drive-through test within 72 hours, then you should presume they’ve been lost.”

@BigChocFrenzy - I hope the Irish government would look at Sturgeon's strategy of waiting until there is a substantial majority for a yes vote and not be bounced into an early ref themselves, after a narrow NI Yes vote

I don't know is that possible. The Good Friday Agreement states that consent for a united Ireland must be “freely and concurrently given” in born NI and RoI.

That presumably requires any border polls to be held in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland at the same time.

Both governments have to agree to hold polls

My reading of the GFA - and earlier reading many articles about what the RoI would do after an NI Yes vote -
is that the polls do NOT have to be simultaneous

The RoI need not hold a poll unless / until NI vote Yes and they can choose how much of a delay

The GFA states that Reunification cannot happen until both parts of Ireland agree, within a reasonable time frame

Consent must be "concurrent," but polls do not have to be so
and the GFA does not require the RoI govt to organise a poll within any timeframe of an NI Yes

• afaik, does not require them to organise a poll at all, if they decide their people do not wish reunification, or that it would be unwise

@BigChocFrenzy

Every Tory MP is apparently supposed to make a screeching U-turn to follow BJ

November 2019:
BJ proudly proclaimed before the GE that every Tory parliamentary candidate has personally pledged to vote his WA through the HoC

September:
this same WA "never made sense"

Come on now BigChoc - a week is a long time in politics, nine months is a geological era.

This feels a bit tinfoil hat, but ... is whoever is funding Johnson just... trying to break the country ? All faith in democracy / our international standing ... are they just showing how fast you can destroy a country?

Maybe I'm just tired and that's ridiculous.