Westminstenders: Governing by U-Turn

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson's determination to get brexit done and to have 'a clean break from Europe' on terms which involve other countries happily returning fishing rights they bought from us (without recompense for the said previous purchase) in addition to the EU accepting terms they don't feel create a level playingfield and risk their economic future make any deal impossible. Our demands simply aren't achievable.

The alternative is adherence to the Withdrawal Agreement in which we are unable to bail out businesses via state aid and to have no deal which creates huge trade barriers and tarriffs overnight and massive customs red tape which we simply are not yet prepared for because the systems for running this are running behind schedule. This would lead to massive food shortages and Brexit lorry parks throughout the country for the forseeable future.

Johnson's latest bright idea is that he seems to think he can avoid chaos by a strategy which would cause even more chaos by deliberately reneging on the withdrawal agreement which is an international agreement just months after throwing a hissy fit for China doing exactly the same thing. This wouldn't just be hypocritical but would make a mockery of our credibility internationally and potentially endanger every other international agreement we've currently in place because well, why should anyone else stick to an agreement with the UK.

We could face years of legal wrangles with god knows which countries and businesses suing the British government.

But y'know Johnson thinks this is a sensible strategy and a cracking plan to force Brussels to blink first rather than actually take the subject seriously and do something in the country's interest rather than prevent Johnson from damaging his internal reputation with leave voters and because he thinks this is the correct hill to die on to prove he doesn't govern by u-turn. Johnson's ego seems more important to him than feeding the nation and having an international reputation.

Or he could do another u-turn.

I think even in Asia what the authorities are generally looking out for is drunk noisy people carrying bottles of whisky, not sober people who don’t really want to be out risking COVID in the first place.

In Hong Kong of course it is different and I entirely get why it can be a means of control.

The Vienna Convention on International Treaties

Article 27. INTERNAL LAW AND OBSERVANCE OF TREATIES

A party may not invoke the provisions of its internal law as justification
for its failure to perform a treaty.

@BigChocFrenzy

The Vienna Convention on International Treaties

Article 27. INTERNAL LAW AND OBSERVANCE OF TREATIES

A party may not invoke the provisions of its internal law as justification
for its failure to perform a treaty.

There's a bit of a paradox there, isn't there ? If a country is willing to break one treaty, then why would the Vienna Treaty stop them ?

That being said invoking the Vienna Treaty would render the UK liable to consequences from the UN and it's members, not just the EU.

Oh. Dear.

I wonder if we'll ever see the Tory party declared a criminal organisation, if it isn't already. After all, how else would you describe a political party abbreviated to 4 letters that breaks the law ?

Pah ! I spit on your Vienna Convention on International Treaties.

Don't you know who we are?!

LIAR, LIAR, PANTS ON FIRE

This doesn't fit BJ's praise of the WA before the GE and his claims in the Tory manifesto that it was an oven-ready deal:

No 10 briefing today:

"The withdrawal agreement and the Northern Ireland protocol aren’t like any other treaty.

It was agreed at pace in the most challenging possible political circumstances to deliver on a clear political decision by the British people with the clear overriding purpose of protecting the special circumstances of Northern Ireland.

It contains ambiguities and in key areas there is a lack of clarity.
It was written on the assumption that subsequent agreements to clarify these aspects could be reached between us and the EU on the details and that may yet be possible."

I wonder how many Conservative MPs and party members are looking at this in horror...

mrsnorris

I hear you. I swing from hope to despair - sometimes many times in a day...it's exhausting 😪

I'm trying to deal with moving my elderly mum into more suitable accommodation before another local lockdown hits.

Ds2 going back to school tomorrow - let's hope he manages a few more days this time 🙏

Ds1 goes back next week - God knows how long for.

I'm trying so hard to keep positive for everyone but I'm tired and scared.

@Darker

I wonder how many Conservative MPs and party members are looking at this in horror...

Fuck all. And we know they'll all troop through the appropriate lobby.

"If a country is willing to break one treaty, then why would the Vienna Treaty stop them ?"

As with any law-breaker, the law is not there to stop them breaking the law, but to enable their legal punishment for doing so

The EU will likely take the UK to the ICJ at the Hague the minute the govt actually uses this law to break WA terms

• and btw, that may be BJ's bluff: he may never actually use it; he may have sailed off into the sunset before the No Deal shit really hits the fan

In the meantime, it gives full justification for the EU not to make any helpful exceptions for the UK in the first few months, if it wishes.
e.g. on checking documentation of imports from Britain

Also on certifications for planes, airports, ships, crews, cars, chemicals and a myriad other things for which British agencies do not yet exist and which would have a huge backlog once they do exist.

What is the briefing at 4 pm about Brexit or Covid?

I hear you too mrs norries

Listen ... listen very very carefully. Is that the sound of rope being played out ?

Covid I think Sos

That being said smile invoking the Vienna Treaty would render the UK liable to consequences from the UN and it's members, not just the EU.

We voted to leave the EU.

Therefore we must leave the ECJ, Euroatom, the ECHR and the UN. Lets just throw in WHO and the WTO too for good measure cos they dont respect us either and go full on Trumpian.

The EU will likely take the UK to the ICJ at the Hague the minute the govt actually uses this law to break WA terms

But since you pointed out the UKs obligations under the Vienna Treaty (which also protects our diplomats ...) then could there be action higher up ?

FFS we need to see the "exceptions" list NOW
its 4pm
surely the ink is dry

@RedToothBrush

That being said smile invoking the Vienna Treaty would render the UK liable to consequences from the UN and it's members, not just the EU.

We voted to leave the EU.

Therefore we must leave the ECJ, Euroatom, the ECHR and the UN. Lets just throw in WHO and the WTO too for good measure cos they dont respect us either and go full on Trumpian.

So far - GFA notwithstanding - Brexit has been a UK-EU spat.

Choosing to abandon an international treaty would seem to raise the stakes.

I'm just of an age to vaguely recall UDI in Rhodesia - not the declaration, but the 1970s fallout.

There is no World Govt;
it is in practice up to UN member states and their allies to punish breaches of international law

The USA gets away with breaking international law, because it is - for the moment - the #1 superpower \and has avoided breaking laws which the other most powerful countries or groups really care about enough to suffer for
e.g. war crimes and the ICC

The Uk can easily get away with breaking treaties with minnows who have no powerful friends
but not with a 900 lb gorilla like the EU

Here’s Boris!

There is no World Govt;

(praise god !)

it is in practice up to UN member states and their allies to punish breaches of international law

So we're back to China and Spain having an option of "if you can't beat 'em join 'em" and deciding Hong Kong is now Bejings, and Gibraltar Spains for the taking.

I really can't see this drumming up a massive queue of investors in the UK. You'd need a pretty laid back - if not comatose - compliance team to not flag up the dangers of dealing with countries that don't respect treaties.

And I know if I were awaiting extradition to the UK from anywhere in the world, I'd hope my legal team were urgently petitioning their local courts for a review.

Rhodesia was a minnow, so could have scantions applied
and to be fair, their breach of law held millions of innocents prisoner in a racist state

The UK breach of law - if it happens, is against a much stronger bloc

The EU has the power to seriously damage the UK even more than a No DEal normally would, by not making neighbourly goodwill concessions to help the initial shock

Any court proceedings at the Hague will take yearsand will probably end with a few billion in damages - peanuts to the UK or EU - and a legal ruling to enforce the Ni protocol

The real damage would be to the UK's reputation and would be lasting
A national humiliation, to add to the economic damage likely ongoing after No Deal

Quite likely, by then the UK will be under quite different management, that will have repealed any WA-breaching bill and will have returned to orderly negotiations - in which case processings would be amicably stopped.

Even more likely, the US will bring the hammer down - regardless of whether the UK wants a US FTA -
as soon as the UK takes action to actually breach the NI Protocol

Even if Trump is re-elected, he is out for Trump only and won't defend the UK if it angers the powerful Irish-American bloc and reduces his ratings

"The Rule of Sex"

Erm sorry what. Misses the point.

What is it with Cummings this WM Government's obsession with 3 word slogans?

"Hands. Face. Space."

Remarkably similar to the FACTS campaign that the Scottish Government has been consistently promoting now for weeks if not over a month - but like everything that WM does more vague on detail.

Face coverings
Avoid crowded places
Clean your hands regularly
Two metre distance
Self isolate and book a test if you have symptoms

The UK has attracted so much foreign investment over decades because:

it is English-speaking
in the EU Single Market
Stable government
Law-abiding wrt both government actions and business contracts

Well, the English-speaking is untouched
(although BJ's piffle barely qualifies)

Oooo school prefects in public spaces to be set up to enforce covid rules. (There isnt anything here i find sinister at all - im deliberately avoiding different comparisons)