Westminstenders: Governing by U-Turn

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson's determination to get brexit done and to have 'a clean break from Europe' on terms which involve other countries happily returning fishing rights they bought from us (without recompense for the said previous purchase) in addition to the EU accepting terms they don't feel create a level playingfield and risk their economic future make any deal impossible. Our demands simply aren't achievable.

The alternative is adherence to the Withdrawal Agreement in which we are unable to bail out businesses via state aid and to have no deal which creates huge trade barriers and tarriffs overnight and massive customs red tape which we simply are not yet prepared for because the systems for running this are running behind schedule. This would lead to massive food shortages and Brexit lorry parks throughout the country for the forseeable future.

Johnson's latest bright idea is that he seems to think he can avoid chaos by a strategy which would cause even more chaos by deliberately reneging on the withdrawal agreement which is an international agreement just months after throwing a hissy fit for China doing exactly the same thing. This wouldn't just be hypocritical but would make a mockery of our credibility internationally and potentially endanger every other international agreement we've currently in place because well, why should anyone else stick to an agreement with the UK.

We could face years of legal wrangles with god knows which countries and businesses suing the British government.

But y'know Johnson thinks this is a sensible strategy and a cracking plan to force Brussels to blink first rather than actually take the subject seriously and do something in the country's interest rather than prevent Johnson from damaging his internal reputation with leave voters and because he thinks this is the correct hill to die on to prove he doesn't govern by u-turn. Johnson's ego seems more important to him than feeding the nation and having an international reputation.

Or he could do another u-turn.

red I don't really see how any of this could be used to justify an extension

However, if the govt wanted one, then they have the best ever excuse ot a totally unforeseen global emergency hitting the UK and EU members:
COVID

The UK's Ministerial Code (Cabinet Office, August 2019):

"1.3: The Ministerial Code should be read against the background of the overarching duty on Ministers to comply with the law
& to protect the integrity of public life".

At this stage, I'd doubt if the EU would grant an extension, unless there is a really bad 2nd wave this winter and we are in December with shortages already, or a double dip recession

They have probably decided by now that the UK govt will not be prepared to negotiate realistically until after some months of No Deal

EU members all have more urgent issues atm with COVID and the economic fallout.
so at least some member govts won't have the bandwidth - to say nothing of the patience - to play cake charades with BJ

I don't think it matters whether Bernard Jenkins thinks it's the letter of the law which matters and not the spirit.

What matters is how other countries perceive it, and they have already taken note that the UK Government is prepared to renege on a Treaty it negotiated less than a year ago. It will certainly give China an excuse not to have any regard for obligations laid down by a twenty year old treaty with respect to Hong Kong, and Spain with respect to a 300 year old treaty.

The other thought I had was simply that because Johnson knows that they haven't done enough work to get the arrangements for the Irish border up and running, he thought the easy way out was to rip up the treaty.

I'm just utterly depressed.

On the one hand, there are women marching in white demanding their basic democratic right to vote be upheld, with one ripping up her passport to avoid being illegally deported by a corrupt regime that snatched her off the street.

On the other, there are people shrugging and saying "so?" when the rule of law is openly flouted and their government is visibly and irreversibly sliding ever further into corrupt slime.

There were also a lot of people who thought the post-WW1 years had been a bit of a turgid mess in Germany and "at least things are happening."

It is really depressing.

Also because of the pandemic all people seem to be talking about is the fact that we can't meet in groups of six but we can go to a pub. So they are missing this or just ignoring it as inevitable.

It upsets me what people will accept because of their ideology. Can we just move on from identity politics culture war nonsense and go back to use and understanding of science and facts?;

Apparently half the kids already have mild cold symptoms but the school arent doing anything

Subjectively the return to school colds are more prevalent this week - DD has one, normal temperature. I guess it's kind of logical, there having been a much longer period than usual without 'mixing'.

@HoneysuckIejasmine

It upsets me what people will accept because of their ideology. Can we just move on from identity politics culture war nonsense and go back to use and understanding of science and facts?;

Nope.

We are years off that point yet.

Sorry.

By the same token, if you can't get a test, you can't test positive, and if there's no positive test, you can't shut the school.

But by the same token the child (or adult) has symptoms so they have to self isolate until symptoms disappear (+7 days I think).
How is that going to work for workers and parents?

Red it's so upsetting. I think we need to introduce "critical thinking" as a subject. But then it's not in the Government's interest to have a population capable of such things.

Sky News @skynews
"We have seen an increase of about 25% of people (getting tested) who don't have symptoms and aren't eligible."

Health Secretary @MattHancock appears to blame people without COVID symptoms getting tested for the strain on the system.

Ed Conway @edconwaysky
This is odd.

If govt knows a chunk of those asking for tests aren't eligible then surely it should just refuse them a test?

If that's not happening then surely it's the system and its administration which are to blame - not the people trying to use it.

There's been an unfortunate pattern of this recently.

Cases rise and govt blames young people - not the fact that lockdown has been eased.

Testing system creaks and govt blames young people for over-using it.

Whatever happened to govt taking (or at least sharing) responsibility?

The reality is that the govt's testing system has faced mammoth administrative problems from the beginning. @rowlsmanthorpe and I wrote something on this a month or two back and it seems some problems still remain

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-inside-story-of-how-uks-chaotic-testing-regime-broke-all-the-rules-12022566
Coronavirus: The inside story of how UK's 'chaotic' testing regime 'broke all the rules'
Insiders reveal that data collection was haphazard, as officials went against accepted practice and "buffed the system".

An unfortunate pattern of the government not taking responsibility and blaming others?

Really?

Who'd have thought.

@QuestionMarkNow

By the same token, if you can't get a test, you can't test positive, and if there's no positive test, you can't shut the school.

But by the same token the child (or adult) has symptoms so they have to self isolate until symptoms disappear (+7 days I think).
How is that going to work for workers and parents?

It wont. And people wont isolate if there is a lack of available tests. They will carry on as usual. Cos they cant afford not to. Especially if it happens repeatedly.

Its a mess.

One which was predictable too.

Ha! I used to teach Critical Thinking AS/A2. We offered it as an alternative to General Studies. I so enjoyed teaching it, officially it was offered only as an AS in Y12 but a few students did the A2 in their own time.
The AS was largely about constructing and analysing arguments. I used any controversial topic that was in the news, off the top of my head, the use of torture, childhood obesity, cigarettes vs e-cigarettes (new then), violent lyrics in popular music, lies told by Government (feat. Tony Blair), whether sperm donors should be contactable by their offspring...I was really pissed off when it (along with Gen Studies) was dropped. Both subjects, if taught well, really added to the sixth form learning experience (I appreciate Gen Studies was often taught badly and skived by most students).

The numbers requesting tests was always going to rise late Aug/early Sept as we are spending more time together:

Schools
Nursery’s
Return from holidays
Get back to work (tube/coffee)
Etc

It increased exposure ffs. I guess if you return from hol a test can avoid a quarantine?

It shows that the govt are not consulting multi-agency groups to predict what might happen. All while calling KS captain hindsight. 🙄

Speaking of forward planning, surely the EU have a plan A B and C for if the U.K. asks not a non-extension, extension?

Maybe by slapping a take it or leave it deal on the table.

borntobequiet when i did general studies we didn't get taught anything for it. No lessons at all. You just turned up for the exam on the day. Our school just put everyone in for it because it could give students extra university points which would make a difference even if 'general studies wasnt counted' by a university.

It saved my skin.

I thought id completely flunked my entry to university because I needed a minimum of 27points for my course which i just missed out on. I didnt get enough for my second choice either. I was devastated and so upset I didn't call clearing that day.

So when i woke up the next morning to find a 'welcome to first choice uni' letter on the doorstep, it was the most amazing thing ever.

Turns out first choice uni was one of the few which DID value General Studies and I hadnt realised that, as every other course and person i knew had the small print.

As it was General Studies was the highest grade I got. Its a pretty useful subject for studying media, as general background knowledge and ability to process and understand that information is crucial. It also shows I've always been a font of all bullshit information thats apparently useless.

As i say, all this labelling of subjects as 'mickey mouse' wasnt exactly a good thing and certainly didnt start with the current party in government.

Phoenix why would they? No Deal will hurt the UK way more than it will hurt the EU. For some companies in the EU, no deal will be an inconvenience: some will decide not to supply UK any more. For the UK population as a whole, no deal will be disastrous - see the government's own assessment, published recently which covered the possibility of food and medication shortages from 1 Jan.

No Deal will hurt the UK way more than it will hurt the EU

That is true. However, it will hurt different countries within the EU to differing degrees. Ireland, given its geographical location, will be worst affected. The loss of the landbridge will have a hugely detrimental effect on our exports. That's quite apart from the fallout from the UK breaking the NI protocol.

However, we do have the advantage that the EU will provide an aid package if that happens. We won't be left to deal with the fallout on our own. The UK, on the other hand, will sink or swim on their own. Given the amazing leadership currently being demonstrated by the UK government, I know which I think will happen.

www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/0908/1164023-brexit-ireland/

UK must honour agreement to get free trade deal - Varadkar

Updated / Wednesday, 9 Sep 2020 08:50

The announcement on Brexit plans for businesses today will be made by Taoiseach Micheál Martin (R), Tánaiste Leo Varadkar (L), and the Ministers for Foreign Affairs and Transport (File image: RollingNews.ie)

By Mícheál Lehane

Political Correspondent

Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment Leo Varadkar says he does not believe a free trade agreement can be reached if the UK does not honour the UK EU Withdrawal Agreement.

Mr Varadkar said he hopes that proposed new Brexit-related Westminster legislation is simply "sabre rattling", adding that the strategy and behaviour of the British government a year ago was one of brinkmanship and threatening to crash out of the EU and he hopes that this is just another installment of this.

Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Mr Varadkar said that it was "extraordinary" to hear comments by the Northern Secretary Brandon Lewis yesterday, particularly as they were made by a cabinet minister in a respected liberal democracy.

Mr Varadkar said that Britain is not a rogue state and these comments set off alarm bells in Dublin.

The Tánaiste added that he believes the statements have backfired and governments around the world are now "scratching their heads" and wondering if they should ever enter into treaties or contracts with the British government, if this is their attitude.

He pointed out that the Withdrawal Agreement was ratified by the House of Commons and the House of Lords.

Mr Varadkar said he believes the UK does want a deal but there are sticking points around the fisheries and state aid.

He said that he has faith in EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Michael Barnier to "make the right call".

Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney yesterday described Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis' admission that the new Brexit-related legislation would break international law as "gravely concerning".

Mr Coveney described the UK's positioning as "hugely problematic and illegal", but called for calm.

Mr Lewis told MPs in the House of Commons yesterday that the UK government planned a new bill, to be published today, that would override elements of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit deal with Brussels.

Latest Brexit stories

Downing Street had insisted changes in the Internal Market Bill were simply "limited clarifications" to protect the Northern Ireland peace process if they failed to secure a free trade deal with the EU.

But Mr Lewis provoked a furious reaction when he confirmed to MPs that the legislation would breach international law in a "very specific and limited way".

The former Conservative Party MP Dominic Grieve has said it is shocking that the UK government plans to go ahead with implementing a domestic bill that it has admitted breaches international law.

Speaking to RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Mr Grieve, who is a former Attorney General of England and Wales, said that "to suggest it's proper to decide to trim and alter an international obligation that was only entered into eleven months ago is completely unacceptable".

Mr Grieve said that to suggest the UK government did not understand the implications of the withdrawal agreement when they signed up to it "is ridiculous".

He said that it is impossible to see how the current Attorney General Suella Braverman and the Lord Chancellor Robert Buckland can remain in office without destroying their reputations, as they must be seen to uphold the rule of law.

The Government is set to announce additional measures today to help businesses prepare for Brexit.

The announcement will be made by the Taoiseach Micheál Martin, Tánaiste Mr Varadkar, and the ministers for Foreign Affairs and Transport.

It comes as businesses have been urged to intensify preparations for 1 January, amid warnings that new rules could prevent Irish firms from trading smoothly with Britain.

There is also the likelihood of significant delays in moving goods.

"Time is short and action is required now", a Government spokesperson said.

"Businesses must take steps now to understand what these changes are and asses their impact".

Meanwhile, the latest round of talks on a post-Brexit trade deal continue in London between the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK's David Frost.

@Jason118

Here's some more bollocks, outlining how we plan to ditch the WA, but only a little bit.

www.gov.uk/government/news/bill-introduced-to-protect-jobs-and-trade-across-the-whole-of-the-united-kingdom

Oo lovely, another trade assist body to appoint friends to, what could go wrong.

Quite apart from the deliberate breaking in a limited and specific way , the "Internal Market drives a coach and horses through the devolution agreements, dressed up in weasel words of "needing" consistency so as not to damage internal trading within the EU (funny how that "need" was an unacceptable affront to sovereignty while the UK was in the EU )

Given that Scotland is determined to continue to align to the Acquis Communautaire to facilitate re-entry to the EU, I foresee ructions

I don't see the new "overseeing body" taking into consideration the desires of the devolved administrations if Westminster England wants an FTA with another country.

And I don't see the constituent nations of the UK having a veto on trade deals in the way that the constituent nations of the EU have

@ICouldHaveCheckedFirst I wasn’t clear. I agree with you fully and didn’t mean this ‘deal at 11th hr’ nonsense.

I’m just wondering if they’ve already made forward plans to force the UK’s hand because as someone said - EU has moved on.

So instead of pandering to the U.K. tantrum, I wonder if the EU will put something (like the previous options given) on the table, no discussion no negotiation. Just take it or go.

Actually maybe I’m just chatting shit. I just want this torture over and the U.K. dithering to stop.

Excuse my ignorance but to get a FTA I thought the U.K. had to be in the single market which the Tory govt doesn’t want?

I don't see the new "overseeing body" taking into consideration the desires of the devolved administrations if Westminster England wants an FTA with another country.

And I don't see the constituent nations of the UK having a veto on trade deals in the way that the constituent nations of the EU have

Which - if there is a majority SNP government in 2021 elected on a platform of securing another IndyRef - the UN clauses the UK signed up to in 1960 kick in.

Of course, breaking international treaties can become very ... moreish ... or so history tells us. I'm sure I'll remember the name of another country where an elected government started tearing up inconvenient treaties in a while. There's so many to choose from.

At least the Nazis had the excuse that the treaties they hated were signed at gunpoint by a previous regime. What's Boris excuse ? That the pig had really sharp teeth ?