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Brexit

Westminstenders: Governing by U-Turn

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/09/2020 01:45

Johnson's determination to get brexit done and to have 'a clean break from Europe' on terms which involve other countries happily returning fishing rights they bought from us (without recompense for the said previous purchase) in addition to the EU accepting terms they don't feel create a level playingfield and risk their economic future make any deal impossible. Our demands simply aren't achievable.

The alternative is adherence to the Withdrawal Agreement in which we are unable to bail out businesses via state aid and to have no deal which creates huge trade barriers and tarriffs overnight and massive customs red tape which we simply are not yet prepared for because the systems for running this are running behind schedule. This would lead to massive food shortages and Brexit lorry parks throughout the country for the forseeable future.

Johnson's latest bright idea is that he seems to think he can avoid chaos by a strategy which would cause even more chaos by deliberately reneging on the withdrawal agreement which is an international agreement just months after throwing a hissy fit for China doing exactly the same thing. This wouldn't just be hypocritical but would make a mockery of our credibility internationally and potentially endanger every other international agreement we've currently in place because well, why should anyone else stick to an agreement with the UK.

We could face years of legal wrangles with god knows which countries and businesses suing the British government.

But y'know Johnson thinks this is a sensible strategy and a cracking plan to force Brussels to blink first rather than actually take the subject seriously and do something in the country's interest rather than prevent Johnson from damaging his internal reputation with leave voters and because he thinks this is the correct hill to die on to prove he doesn't govern by u-turn. Johnson's ego seems more important to him than feeding the nation and having an international reputation.

Or he could do another u-turn.

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Thread gallery
36
SwedishEdith · 08/09/2020 20:54

Jim Pickard
@PickardJE
Level 1:
another government figure on resignation watch :

(but nothing to do with Brexit this time)

watch this space....

SabrinaThwaite · 08/09/2020 20:57

A junior housing minister resigned earlier today, on “personal grounds”.

SwedishEdith · 08/09/2020 20:58

Yeah, these "other reasons" are all quite conveniently timed.

DGRossetti · 08/09/2020 21:01

Of course a resignation of the more decent ones concentrates the scum at the top.

DGRossetti · 08/09/2020 21:02

@DGRossetti

Of course a resignation of the more decent ones concentrates the scum at the top.
This could probably be simulated in a Turing pattern

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_pattern

Pepperwort · 08/09/2020 21:04

Worriedmutha I was startled by how quickly the warnings from logistics groups about the unprepared state of the UK dropped down and out of the main news.

Starmer is being very repetitive and low-key / low-profile? In response, it seems to me. news.sky.com/story/sir-keir-starmer-boris-johnson-needs-to-deliver-on-eu-trade-deal-12066726

WorriedMutha · 08/09/2020 21:44

Starmer is being cautious and maybe over cautious but when he lays a trap it will be deadly. He won't leave wriggle room for Johnson.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2020 22:01

Nick Macpherson@nickmacpherson2 (fmr Treasury civl servant)

I'm told the Chinese media are already quoting Brandon Lewis: no mean achievement.

All the Tory PMs I worked for - Thatcher, Major & Cameron - scrupulously observed the rule of law.

Now we have a government modelling itself on Victor Orban. #badbusiness

BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2020 22:04

< modelling itself on Trump, imo, but without the superpower clout to be very effective outside the UK >

BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2020 22:18

it sets a useful precedent
Think what he can give to his chums later

BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2020 22:20

SInful ?

www.standard.co.uk/news/world/church-leader-coronavirus-gay-marriage-a4542366.html

A church leader in Ukraine who blamed the pandemic on the "sinfulness of humanity" and same-sex marriagee^ has tested positive for Covid-19.

HateIsNotGood · 08/09/2020 22:31

At least things are happening - leaks, outrage, resignations, megatons of speculation and Silences of many kinds. I'm a bit 'and so?' about it.

Let's just wait and see if there's any shift in the turgid mass that the negotiations have been so far.

Hopefully, we'll have some properly Brexity stuff to get our teeth into soon - it's all been a bit too CV19 and 'vignetty' on the Brexit Board to warrant any comment from me mostly the past few months.

The nights are drawing in and Brexit's A-coming so maybe you'll get more original Ref Leave voters like me back around soon to discuss Brexit again.

You know you've missed us.

Jason118 · 08/09/2020 22:37

Like I miss a migraine, yes Grin

Jason118 · 08/09/2020 22:48

Here's some more bollocks, outlining how we plan to ditch the WA, but only a little bit.

www.gov.uk/government/news/bill-introduced-to-protect-jobs-and-trade-across-the-whole-of-the-united-kingdom

Oo lovely, another trade assist body to appoint friends to, what could go wrong.

Peregrina · 08/09/2020 22:53

I'm a bit 'and so?' about it.
Is that the best you can say about reneging on an International Treaty? What will you say when other countries decided to rip up treaties with the UK?

RedToothBrush · 08/09/2020 23:24

Oh such fun.

Just remember that Trump didn't want tests in the US because that would make the figures look bad.

By the same token, if you can't get a test, you can't test positive, and if there's no positive test, you can't shut the school.

Its just a matter of time before there starts to be closures at DS's school. Apparently half the kids already have mild cold symptoms but the school arent doing anything which I'm sure they are doing in other areas. So if they aren't sending kids home pending a negative test, then they cant test positive either. And if the parents know their child can attend with mild cold symptoms then they will just carry on because a) they don't want to take time off b) dont want their kid to miss even more school. No one wants to be THAT family that triggers a closure either.

Its... There arent any more words left really.

We are descending into abject chaos in many areas. Its fine. I have gin and gin is distilled in the UK.

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RedToothBrush · 08/09/2020 23:27

@Peregrina

I'm a bit 'and so?' about it. Is that the best you can say about reneging on an International Treaty? What will you say when other countries decided to rip up treaties with the UK?
You mean like bilateral french agreements over illegal immigrants and returning them to france and arrangements over Sangatte. Or ones with Spain over Gibraltar. Best hope the Royal Navy is floating in the right place on 1st Jan eh?
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BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2020 23:30

The Vienna Convention on International Treaties

"Article 56 - Denunciation of or withdrawal from a treaty containing no provision regarding termination, denunciation or withdrawal

  1. A treaty which contains no provision regarding its termination
and which does not provide for denunciation or withdrawal is not subject to denunciation or withdrawal unless:

(a) it is established that the parties intended to admit the possibility of denunciation or withdrawal; or

(b) a right of denunciation or withdrawal may be implied by the nature of the treaty.

  1. A party shall give not less than twelve months' notice of its intention to denounce or withdraw from a treaty under paragraph 1."
BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2020 23:31

Looks like the Uk can only legally end the WA treaty if it gives 12 months notice.

Then of course the EU can state that it will remove any, or all, of the benefits the UK obtained in the WA

It can additionally remove any helpful measures it was continuing
e.g. its certifications of UK airports, staff, planes, pilots, ships, crews ....
The CAA reported it needed 5 years to take over certifications wrt plane & flights

BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2020 23:43

What is more blatant than breaking an international treaty ....

... is breaking an international treaty that you promised the British people in a GE election manifesto to carrt out
and that you required all Parliamentary candidates in that GE to sign up to support

I can understand that some Brexiters want Brexit regardless of what happens, including No Deal,
but I'm surprised that reaction to deliberately breaking an international treaty is just "and so"
I hadn't realised that the new Britain they wanted was a lawbreaking one

Even if you think the govt are just bluffing and would never do it,
even threatening this as a bluff sends the reputation of the UK down the toilet

and makes it so much easier for countries like China & Saudi Arabia to ignore international laws they don't like

  • they'll burst out laughing the next time the UK criticises another country for this
RedToothBrush · 08/09/2020 23:44

@BigChocFrenzy

Looks like the Uk can only legally end the WA treaty if it gives 12 months notice.

Then of course the EU can state that it will remove any, or all, of the benefits the UK obtained in the WA

It can additionally remove any helpful measures it was continuing
e.g. its certifications of UK airports, staff, planes, pilots, ships, crews ....
The CAA reported it needed 5 years to take over certifications wrt plane & flights

Bcf is that possibly a way to extend the Withdrawal Agreement arrangements by the back door whilst saving face and blaming the EU?

Just thinking out loud.

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Peregrina · 08/09/2020 23:46

Then of course the EU can state that it will remove any, or all, of the benefits the UK obtained in the WA

This is an absolute Godsend for Johnson and his cronies - nasty EU bullying us and holding us to ransom. That won't wash though with the Irish-American lobby.

Peregrina · 08/09/2020 23:49

Where is Clavinova to tell us how breaking an international treaty is just fine?

DrBlackbird · 09/09/2020 00:02

Ah but apparently it is not a matter of 'breaking' the WA... Sir Bernard Jenkin, chair of the House of Commons’ liaison committee, helpfully clarifies that it is a matter of interpretation of the WA. So not spirit of the law, but letter of the law argument. Such a great role model.