Please can leavers please tell me how Brexit will benefit us?

[DaveGrohlsMuse]

Whenever this is asked mid-thread, it's never answered. There's plenty of information out there about how the UK had benefited from membership, but I really struggle to find info on how it's had a negative impact.
So in Jan 2021, once the transition period is over and we actually start to see the impact of the decision, what will improve? How will yours, and mine, and the general population's lives improve?

@mummmy2017 this article would suggest otherwise. Your comment implies that we don't need anyone else, but that's simply not true.

interestingengineering.com/brexits-effect-on-the-uks-manufacturing-sector

If it were to collapse the massive economic impact of that would be felt globally and it would be detrimental to the majority of the world

Project fear No.2.

Although I suppose that is why a number of people did vote leave, just to be out of the EU, without any consideration that they could be substantially worse off

National pride
Immigration
Dislike of the EU
Unelected EU commissioners
WWII

Swayed more than economists

Not at all.

Do you have no concept of what would happen to the world economy if the EU collapsed?

What level of recession would amount to confirmation of Project Fear?

Churchill's decision to stay on gold in 1925 led to the General Strike and the wekness of the UK economy to face the global crash of 1929. Keynes predicted it at the time. Was that Project Fear Origins?

People who complain that remainers don't want to listen to arguments are incorrect, you just can't come up with a good one is all

Nor have remainers produced their crystal ball that makes them know better

Do you have no concept of what would happen to the world economy if the EU collapsed

Not as much as you are trying to scare people into thinking. EU is 15% of world trade.

@MysteryTripAgain you don't need a crystal ball to know how things are for us inside the EU, because we live it.
I would hope that people who voted leave would have done so because they expected things to be better on the outside, so I'd like to know how things will be better.

"Project Fear" was moslty correct. Lower GDP, higher inflation, less investment.

The only thing it got wrong was the possibility of a recession, which was only ever predicted in the case that the leave vote created an economic shock, it did, but the impacts were negated by Cameron resigning (thus delaying the procrss), and the BOE pumping 75bn into the economy through QE.

Had Cameron declared first day as he said, things would have been different.

The EU is 15 percent of world trade and 16.8 percent of world GDP.

If it collapsed it would be very significant for the world economy. Denying it shows your lack of understanding or is wilfully disingenuous.

@MysteryTripAgain interesting article from 2012

www.ft.com/content/6cf8ce18-2042-11e1-9878-00144feabdc0

I don't understand the logic behind "we don't have a crystal ball", which always gets wheeled out by Brexiteers. If there's no way anyone can make any sort of estimation of what will happen in the future, why bother doing anything? Why bother leaving the EU in the first place? Brexit has already cost the UK almost as much as we've paid into the EU in the last 47 years. If no one has any idea if any action is likely to achieve anything, why not just go for the cheaper option? It makes no sense.

no one can explain how Brexit will make the lives of people in the UK better

1. You are assuming that people vote to make things better for ‘the people’. People generally vote to make things better for themselves, although they often seek to justify it in terms of a greater good.

1. Many are hoping it will end free movement of people. If it does, this would generally have a positive impact on the income of unskilled and low-skilled workers fullfact.org/immigration/does-immigration-reduce-wages/ there is also fairly good reason to suspect that, in these times of low public spending, it may also have a positive impact on public services www.economicshelp.org/blog/21073/labour-markets/problems-of-free-movement-of-labour/. Both links from neutral sources.

I repeat what I posted earlier. I am a staunch remainer and mourn the loss of our EU membership. I believe we could have solved these problems without leaving the EU and been so much stronger for it. I think we ended up here because we did had a growing class of people who felt they were not being listened too. I think we need to start listening now if we are to avoid an even sharper shift to the right.

I’m sure there are many more reasons, but this is the only one I have personally encountered (see earlier post!)

The EU is a good deal more than 15% of our trade. It is local. Logistic lines are shorter and well-established.

We need to import half our food and an increasing proportion of our manufactured goods. We pay for this by selling mainly high-quality expensive finished goods and financial services. Even if we can find alternative markets to replace these, how long will it take to build market share and establish reliable supplies?

The three giant markets are The EU, China and North America. The Chinese are not about to stop protecting their domestic markets in a hurry. The US has significantly different standards and is also heavily protected.

This shift from near trade to far trade would be a longterm strategic step that would take decades of planning and massive investment UK industry has conspicuoulsy refused to put in rather than pay dividends.

This is big grown-up stuff.

If it collapsed it would be very significant for the world economy. Denying it shows your lack of understanding or is wilfully disingenuous

China, Japan, Russia and US want the EU to disintegrate. Not necessarily in one swoop, but gently over a period of time. That’s why I think Boris has a good chance of getting better deals with such countries than other think.

Logic is that if EU members see UK doing well outside the EU it will encourage others to leave the EU. Then the domino effect kicks in. Not as fast as actual domino toppling, but over a period measured in decades.

"If it does this will generally have a positive impact on the wages of unskilled and low skilled workers".

It won't, all of the studies into this area show that the impact is tiny, and significantly lower than increases to minimum wage and tax thresholds since 2004.

The LSE study showed that lower immigration from the EU leads to lower tax revenues and no corresponding demand fall for public services.

People can feel they are not listened to, but why should people be listened to when they put the blame for societal issues where it not to blame?

Fear of zombies is at an all time high, should we have anti zombie policies?

....so we're going to make cars for the Japanese?

And maybe the Russians will buy our 5G masts?

Japan certainly doesn't want the EU to disintegrate, this US president might, but in general the US doesn't.

China doesn't either because its a massive export market

Rupert Murdoch and Vladimir Putin want the EU to collapse, each for their own reasons.

studies into this area show that the impact is tiny

The impact averaged 1.88%. That is not insignificant, especially if you’re in one of the industries from the higher end of the data range, and especially the lower you get down the economic food chain.

The LSE study showed that lower immigration from the EU leads to lower tax revenues and no corresponding demand fall for public services.

This is only true if the government invests a set % into public services. It doesn’t stand true when we are stuck with a cost-cutting Tory government.

People can feel they are not listened to, but why should people be listened to when they put the blame for societal issues where it not to blame?

Because these people have a vote and who knows what they’ll use it for next? Disaffected voters vote for anything that will disrupt a status quo that is not working for them. We ignore them at our peril.

Japan certainly doesn't want the EU to disintegrate

Japan can sell its goods to any of the existing 27 EU individually. Not necessary for them all to be in the same club.

this US president might, but in general the US doesn't

I have heard the comment “EU is German attempt at fourth Reich from US persons than anyone else.

China doesn't either because its a massive export market

Same comment as for Japan.

Japan has just signed a massive trade deal with the EU.

Anyone who mentions a fourth reich is an idiot.

China doesn't have a trade deal with the EU because it is not a market economy. The economic impact of an EU collapse on big importers from China would be a disaster for their economy.

Japan has just signed a massive trade deal with the EU

Yes. So they can move manufacturing back to Japan.

The economic impact of an EU collapse on big importers from China would be a disaster for their economy

Why? What prevents China selling to counties individually?

Cameron announced a possible referendum in January 2013. Brexit happened 7 years later.

Unlikely that the remaining 27 members would all leave the EU at the same time. Nor would US, Japan or China want that to happen. A gradual dismantling of the EU as members leave one by one wouldn’t impact anyone.

The average impacted is 1.88%.

No it isn't, that's the impact when a 10 percentage point increase occurs in the number of immigrants working in a low skilled sector, or when its above 33 percent. Also its 1.88 percent in lower wages rises, not falling wages. In fact the 1.88 figure will never have been arrived at because we haven't had that level of immigrants working in the sector, its also temporary, and regional.

The actual impact is far smaller, the NEISR worked it out as a penny an hour in lower wages across a period of 8 years.

It means people, where effected are getting 3.20 a week less than they would have been had their been no immigration. Not insubstantial, but this is more than equaled by increases to minimum wage and tax threshold.

The LsE study into the impact of immigration found that since 2009 the slow recovery has been responsible for lower real wage rises and the immigration is not effected.