Please can leavers please tell me how Brexit will benefit us?

[DaveGrohlsMuse]

Whenever this is asked mid-thread, it's never answered. There's plenty of information out there about how the UK had benefited from membership, but I really struggle to find info on how it's had a negative impact.
So in Jan 2021, once the transition period is over and we actually start to see the impact of the decision, what will improve? How will yours, and mine, and the general population's lives improve?

"What prevents china from selling to countries individually"

People save money in economic downturns, consumption falls, so do imports.

I am dreading some kind of blow up kerfuffle in next 2 days as EU & UK square off with competing claims about what the political declaration meant.

I wouldn't blame EU for giving up on UK. Give Norn a friction-free deal & rUK can have Canada(very small +). Car manufs in GB can be damned.

People save money in economic downturns, consumption falls, so do imports

Not when the said imports are cheaper. China had good experience in that field of selling.

China had massive problems in the world financial crash, it only avoided a recession because it massively increased public spending in infrastructure as well as increasing lending.

You don't know what you are talking about.

I don’t think I explained the wage findings very well. The Full Fact report I linked to is unbiased and has a great summary of the findings. fullfact.org/immigration/does-immigration-reduce-wages/. It also has a link to the full report.

A section cut and paste for convenience:

It found that a 1.88% reduction in pay for semi-skilled and unskilled service workers would be expected to follow, on average, a 10% increase in the proportion of immigrants working in those jobs in a particular region.

Examples of jobs in this category include child minders, cleaners, shop assistants, call centre staff, bar staff and postal workers.

The reduction in average pay for semi-skilled and unskilled service workers is mainly due to a drop in wages for low-paid workers born in the UK. A small part is because immigrants tend to be paid less than native workers, bringing the average down further.

The Bank of England also found that an increase in the ratio of foreign-born to UK-born workers seemed to have an effect on the average UK wage nationally. This effect was much smaller than the effect found when the report focused on particular groups of occupation.

Moving to lived experience. I mentioned earlier that in my occupation (construction/engineering) younger, better qualified European workers are routinely employed in place of older British workers. In my company and on every building site I have ever been on. I am literally inundated with applications for jobs. There is no doubt that it has shifted wages down in our sector. The majority of our workers are self employed sub-contractors, another change in the industry (not Brexit related!)

I would remind you that I am a remainer, I just don’t like the vitriol that is thrown at leavers. The EU might have been ‘better’, but it was not better for all people.

China had massive problems in the world financial crash, it only avoided a recession because it massively increased public spending in infrastructure as well as increasing lending

So how were they able to offer the US a huge loan at same time?

You’re starting to panic about car manufacturers in the UK going down the pan. Japan’s FTA with the EU is to shift manufacturing back to Japan.

That is based on the Bank of England report.

Its a 10 percentage point increase, not 10 percent.

My analysis comes from the NEISR findings on the bank of england paper that your link uses to come to its conclusions. The author of the paper described the impact on the wages of the low paid as "infantessimally" small.

The research I used comes to very accurate conclusions (look it up its called How small is small) , and is backed by other studies that confirm it.

Your lived experience isn't backed up by data either that shows outside of the south east the number of migrants in the building trade is very low.

Listeningquietly : try travelling on Northern Rail (as it was!)..will not change after govt takes it over.

All those things you listed Mystery why people might have voted for Brexit seem good reasons why there should never have been a referendum. How are any of those reasons going to help the economy, how are any of those reasons going to get trade deals, help farmers, help people out of poverty etc. How are any of those reasons a tangible benefit of not being in the EU

"How were they able to offer the US a big loan"

You'll have to back that with evidence. The Chinese bought more US bonds at the time but that's different. They were able to afford this due to fiscal surplus, which they don't have now.

The three biggest low paying industries in the UK are

• care
• agriculture
• food retail

so if wages rise in any of them, so will the cost of living to their users ie the poorest in society

Dog eats own tail

How are any of those reasons going to help the economy, how are any of those reasons going to get trade deals, help farmers, help people out of poverty etc. How are any of those reasons a tangible benefit of not being in the EU

Tangibles has very little to do with the vote

Mysterytripagain
When do you go back to Oz so we no longer have to share a time zone with you?
I take it you are up to date on maintenance to your ex wife
Bye.

When do you go back to Oz so we no longer have to share a time zone with you?

Last time in Oz was 2012 for a Visa

I take it you are up to date on maintenance to your ex wife

Yes. Spousal stopped last year.

But tangibles should have had everything to do with the vote

Most leave voters seem to have voted for Brexit because they felt threatened and insecure.

The leave campaign focused on the two main issues that concerned the majority, the NHS and immigration. Everything could be pinned on immigration and that is what concerned them.

There has been a lot of people saying that now we are out, manufacturing can be massive again, therefore more jobs.

Sadly it is too late to tackle the issues that led to the outcome.

All Leavers - I would leave the thread. The Remainers (if there is such a thing now) want to be in their own Echo Chamber. They think they know best. Leave them be. We had a refendum, we had a GE yet they still bleat on that THEY know best, they know what is going to happen etc.

Leave them, they can make this thread one of those silly ones where they all agree with each other.

Bye and good night...

It doesn't matter what the fuck you try and figure out now. We don't know.

But tangibles should have had everything to do with the vote

Didn’t say so on the ballot paper. Leave or remain was the question.

Tabloids blamed everything on immigration in the run up to the referendum.

Then there was the £50 million per day to the EU

My parents had made their mind up before Cameron’s booklet arrived in the post.

@Bathroom12345

Not at all. Its called debate. You could try to provide reasons and discuss rather than complaining that other people are doing what the leave side did for 41 years.

All Leavers - I would leave the thread

I will stay for a bit in hope one of the tells me how they can forecast the future with certainty. If they can why are they on here at all? Surely their time would be better spent using their physic powers to make dead certain bets on the stock market?

The Remainers (if there is such a thing now) want to be in their own Echo Chamber

As evidenced by the number of threads on this subject of Brexit benefits.

They think they know best

True

Leave them be. We had a refendum, we had a GE yet they still bleat on that THEY know best, they know what is going to happen etc.

Ah, but the referendum was based on lies apparently. Hence Brexit should be cancelled. However, waiting for Maylis to tell everyone not to buy Honda cars as they lied about the reason for closure of the Swindon plant.

leave side did for 41 years

I wasn’t aware of Brexit until 2013 when Cameron said there would be a referendum.

Was UKIP formed 41 years ago? Don’t remember that.

Maybe the government didn't think they had to spell it out to the electorate that they actually needed to think about what the tangible impact could be of leaving the EU, not just the fact that they didn't like what the Germans did in the war!

God it’s all so depressing to read that tangibles had nothing to do with the vote and it’s all about feelings. Running my own company I have to deal with tangibles every single bloody day not feelings. This frankly should Never have been put to a referendum. At least one person in the beginning of this thread did actually mention some reasons that they felt were valid in terms of the future collapse of the EU and getting out now. I don’t necessarily share their view but it did at least have some reasoning behind it instead of bloody feelings. I ask you.

There have been leave campaigns, people demanding new referendums since the 70s. Enoch Powell said he would campaign to leave the EEC forever, and he did.

UKIP was formed in the 90s, There was also James Goldsmiths referendum party and loads of euroscpetic MPs.

Nope no one ever shut up and pulled together