Saying goodbye to the EU

[Parker231]

Am listening to Radio Five Live and one of the topics is what would you say in your goodbye to the EU?

Mine would be - relived to an EU country passport holder and remain as a supporter of the EU. Hoping that the UK will rejoin.

Too much doom on here.

I don’t think it was ever the intention of the EU of the UK never to trade with each other again after Brexit. Otherwise what is the point of the negotiations that are scheduled to start after 31 January 2020?

Possible that the new deal agreed is not hufelt different to the existing deal. Hence the target to be complete by end of 2020.

In response to the anticipated question.

So why is UK leaving at all?

The reply is;

Majority votes have to be respected

UK has freedom to seek trade with non EU countries

Now that Brexit is happening UK government can allocate time to other important issues that have been on hold since 2016 referendum

Majority votes have to be respected

advisory votes should be exactly that. Especially as safeguards were not put in place (supermajority/ all UK countries agree) because the govt argued it was unnecessary as the vote was only advisory. Especially if one half of the campaign (the winning half no less) broke electoral law and included foreign interference Had the vote not been advisory - it would have had to be nullified on these grounds.

UK has freedom to seek trade with non EU countries

we always did. Look at all the beef Ireland exports to China. Not the E.U. Ireland. www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2019/1113/1090484-beef-china/

Now that Brexit is happening UK government can allocate time to other important issues that have been on hold since 2016 referendum

Now that Brexit is happening the govt has until June to come up with a trade deal (that usually takes at least 5 years) with the EU - or ask for a transition extension, meaning prolonging trade talks or crash us out at the beginning of next year causing chaos. As well as having to negotiate trade with the EU we are also losing our 41 trade agreements with 72 countries that we enjoyed as part of the EU. So we need to strike 72 separate trade deals. At an average of 5 years per trade deal (and that is probably an underestimate) we are looking at 360 years worth of trade negotiations to complete in a short space of time - and only a handful of trade negotiators. As none of the countries will be coming to the table whilst trying to juggle 71 other trade negotiations and having just lost all their existing ones, we will be going to the table on the back foot and in the weaker position - no matter which country we are striking a deal with.

No - the government are not going to 'allocate time to other important issues that have been hold since 2016'.
The deadlock, impotence and red tape is only just beginning.

advisory votes should be exactly that. Especially as safeguards were not put in place (supermajority/ all UK countries agree) because the govt argued it was unnecessary as the vote was only advisory

Cameron committed to honour the result I remember. So it was not advisory. 498 MPs voted to Invoke Article 50 I remember. Once notice of UK's wish to leave the EU was served on 29 March 2017 the clock began and UK was due to leave on 29 March 2019.

Especially if one half of the campaign (the winning half no less) broke electoral law and included foreign interference Had the vote not been advisory - it would have had to be nullified on these grounds

So why was the vote not nullified?

we always did. Look at all the beef Ireland exports to China. Not the E.U. Ireland. www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2019/1113/1090484-beef-china

Members are not allowed to negotiate directly with non EU members. It has to go through the EU commission.

Now that Brexit is happening the govt has until June to come up with a trade deal (that usually takes at least 5 years) with the EU - or ask for a transition extension, meaning prolonging trade talks or crash us out at the beginning of next year causing chaos

Thought the target was to be complete by end of 2020?

As well as having to negotiate trade with the EU we are also losing our 41 trade agreements with 72 countries that we enjoyed as part of the EU. So we need to strike 72 separate trade deals

Look at

www.bbc.com/news/uk-47213842

Many of the deals that EU made with non EU countries have been rolled over. About 75% as per the article.

Cameron committed to honour the result I remember
Yes - he also committed to extending the vote to British citizens who had lived abroad for more than 15 years in his 2015 manifesto. That never happened. He also didn't honour the result - he fucked off the very next day so he didn't have to. Cameron committed to a lot of things that never came to pass. 'Cameron said...' is not an argument.

So it was not advisory.
Yes. It was. That was its legal standing. Nothing can change that. No actions at a later date can change that. That is a fact.

498 MPs voted to Invoke Article 50 I remember. Once notice of UK's wish to leave the EU was served on 29 March 2017 the clock began and UK was due to leave on 29 March 2019.

Yes this is all true. They did all this stupid stuff. The didn't have to though. The fact that they did it is not the same as them having to do it surely you understand the nuance of that? The vote did not have to be respected. It was. But that does not retroactively change the fact that it could have been ignored, or used as a bargaining chip to drive for a better deal within the EU.

So why was the vote not nullified?

BECAUSE ITS LEGAL STATUS WAS ADVISORY! You don't have to nullify the outcome of an advisory referendum just because one side cheats, as it is essentially an opinion poll with no legal weight. They chose to act as if it had legal weight - but it didn't. Had it been a binding referendum then it would have been bound by the electoral rules and having broken them would then be null and void. No such protection exists for an advisory referendum.

Members are not allowed to negotiate directly with non EU members. It has to go through the EU commission.

Which gives it the weight of a world superpower when it comes to the trading table thus allowing it to get far more favourable terms. There is no way Ireland could trade favourably with China off its own steam.

Brexit means we have given up our superpower backing just as we have a whole load of trade deals to complete really really quickly.

Many of the deals that EU made with non EU countries have been rolled over. About 75% as per the article.

I'm wondering - if we've agreed to keep these trade deals and aren't looking to change them, then surely we are still trading on what are essentially EU rules? Using their standards - because that is agreed. And why - why - if we left to strike trade deals of our own, are we keeping the ones we had as members of the EU? The ability to strike our own trade deals is one of the reasons we are leaving, but apparently we're not doing - we're keeping our old terms. And yet this is a defence of brexit that leavers are putting forward ...
Either we are not going to change these deals - in which case wanting to leave the EU to strike our own trade deals was completely pointless ... or they are going to change these terms down the line. which means years of negotiating.

But as per the pie chart - this only covers 11% of our trade (actually not the full 11% - only 50 countries and territories have rolled out of 72) - still leaving terms and agreement to be agreed for the territories that make up 89% of our trade.

Unless we accept very bad terms - these will not be done quickly. The government are not getting back to everyday business anytime soon. (though considering the cuts to schools, destruction of the NHS and the increase in homelessness, plus the 100 000 deaths due to austerity - perhaps it is no bad thing for the country if this government is too distracted to govern).
I'm sure they will announce some nothing-to -do -with -brexit initiative soon - probably on Monday - so that the gullible can think they are getting on with governing. And then - just as with Cameron's promise to extend the franchise to British citizens who have lived abroad for more than 15 years - it will just never happen.

I guess it comes down to this:

If you voted leave for the trading opportunities - what do you want to get from the U.S and China that we weren't already getting as members of the EU?
And equally - what do you think we have to offer them (trade being a two way thing) if we're not the English speaking gateway to the worlds largest single market?

Anyway - I have 34 hours to continue being an EU citizen. I'm not going to waste them arguing with someone who doesn't understand what they are giving up.

Yes the UK has rolled over some of the trade deals. I’m sure a trade deal with Kosovo and the Faroe Islands are going to improve the UK economy.

Cameron said...' is not an argument

He said it as head of Government. I don't think he meant himself as an individual. As things turned out it had to be passed by Parliament.

Boris WA has been accepted by the EU by big majority. 621 votes for and 49 against. So UK departure from the EU is confirned.

But as per the pie chart - this only covers 11% of our trade (actually not the full 11% - only 50 countries and territories have rolled out of 72) - still leaving terms and agreement to be agreed for the territories that make up 89% of our trade

The 89% is made up of;

40% ROW. This do not need to be re-visited

49% EU. Negotiations on new terms begin after 31 Jan 2020. If agreement is not made the default position is to trade on WTO. So trade with the EU will continue anyway. It won't disappear overnight.

As for British people living abroad not voting how many are there compared to the 33.5 million that voted? What's to say they wouldn't have voted leave? A weaker pound is good if you are outside the UK and paid in local currency.

And equally - what do you think we have to offer them (trade being a two way thing) if we're not the English speaking gateway to the worlds largest single market?

UK is a large supp;ier of drugs to the US

UK has recently allowed China's Huweai into the UK

I'm not going to waste them arguing with someone who doesn't understand what they are giving up

Another I know better statement

I’m sure a trade deal with Kosovo and the Faroe Islands are going to improve the UK economy

I you are moving to Canada why are you bothered?

Mystery - why would I not be bothered? I have a business in the UK, property as well as friends who unfortunately don’t have the benefits of a non UK passport.

I thought you didn’t live in the UK!

I have a business in the UK, property as well as friends who unfortunately

If you have property and a business in the UK where does the move to Canada fit in?

don’t have the benefits of a non UK passport

About 95% of my 30 years overseas working has been outside the EU. Never been an issue to get work and residence permits because I had a UK passport.

I thought you didn’t live in the UK

I don't, but have properties in UK that are rented through my UK registered business. Being paid in US$ and Euros since 2016 has been great as weaker pound means my overseas earnings go further when I visit the UK

I'm deeply embarrassed by brexit.

We're like a middle aged man leaving his family, thinking it will be all sex and giggles but actually we'll end up in the trade equivalent of a lonely bed sit.

There is little pleasure living in the UK now as a ‘foreigner’. We are leaving as a result of Brexit. Canada as our future home works for us as DH and DT’s have Canadian passports and I can transfer with my employer there. Our business in the UK will continue and we will maintain a home there until we know where DT’s finally end up working after Uni.

Why are you so interested in Brexit Mystery when you haven’t lived in the UK for years?

Why are you so interested in Brexit Mystery when you haven’t lived in the UK for years

When my overseas travels stop I was planning to retire in the UK. I have paid my own NI so would be entitled to State Pension and Healthcare if needed.

As well as having to negotiate trade with the EU we are also losing our 41 trade agreements with 72 countries that we enjoyed as part of the EU. So we need to strike 72 separate trade deals. At an average of 5 years per trade deal (and that is probably an underestimate) we are looking at 360 years worth of trade negotiations to complete in a short space of time - and only a handful of trade negotiators. As none of the countries will be coming to the table whilst trying to juggle 71 other trade negotiations and having just lost all their existing ones

Oh, for goodness sake...

Which bit is not true then Clav? You can fgs as much as you like, it won't change reality

You can fgs as much as you like, it won't change reality

Reality is that UK will have left the EU as of 11pm UK time on 31 January 2020.

Then EU and UK commence negotiations on new trade arrangements. Target is to complete by end of 2020.

If agreement is not reached then EU and UK trade on WTO terms.

Correct mystery, which is why it's all so shit.

WTO terms?

Who is going to enforce them?

WTO terms are a disaster for the UK, not so much the EU.

If agreement is not reached then EU and UK trade on WTO terms.
the EU and the vast bulk of the world trade on WTO terms
which will put the UK at a huge disadvantage as countries in blocs will push Blighty around

Who is going to enforce them?

Nobody by sound of things, but WTO is the default trade terms if EU and UK can’t reach an agreement.

WTO terms are a disaster for the UK, not so much the EU

If they are not enforceable how?

WTO terms are a disaster if enforced.

The Uk and EU can choose to operate under them without a court of arbitration, but trade wars might result.

Who wins in a trade war us or the EU?

Who wins in a trade war us or the EU?

Why would UK and EU end up in a trade war. Thought the object of the negotiations was to make a deal.

If WTO is unenforceable there is a big risk to the EU. UK could block sub standard goods from arriving in UK mainland with checks at ports, but impose no control whatsoever in NI as the most favoured nation rule is not being enforced.

NI then becomes a smugglers paradise as there is easy access into the EU via Ireland.

You don't understand international trade.

If WTO rules are not enforced then either side can increase tariffs or NTB on the other, with retaliation from the other side.

The UK suffers most from this as it is more reliant on EU trade (15 percent of GDP) than the EU is.

What "sub standard" goods will be coming from the EU, its the UK that wants to diverge from standards

If WTO rules aren’t enforced, it will be a free for all with the UK at the bottom of the pile.