Brexit - the Good, the Bad and hopefully not the Ugly

[Bearbehind]

Following on the thread about how we will measure the successes or failures of Brexit, I’m just leaving this one here for people to record the successes and failures as they occur / as they see them

All welcome if you discuss the subject of the thread - this isn’t a thread for moaning about the fact Brexit is happening! 😁

The government wasn't obliged to implement the vote, it was advisory.

The "future relationship" does not mean a trade deal

The EU was founded on the basis of ease of trade. So what else can the future relationship mean other than trade?

A trade deal can only be arranged when a country had left and the terms of that leaving defined

A new trade can't be implemented until after the UK had left, but how does that prevent a new deal being agreed in advance with the caveat that it only becomes effective when UK leaves the EU?

The government wasn't obliged to implement the vote, it was advisory

Cameron said the 2016 referendum result would be honoured. Once Article 50 was invoked it became cast in law.

The leave campaign talked above saving money by leaving the EU not spending billions on additional layers of bureaucracy (something small state right wingers supposedly hate).

You cant complain about previous governments spending and then turn a blind to the eye watering sums spent on a project that has not been defined but will make the country poorer. Spend to fail you could call it.

The future relationship doesn't mean a trade deal, never did, this is your misunderstanding. A country cannot negotiate a trade deal whilst a member, and must set out its terms of leaving and what the relationship will be for that period.

Which is exactly what May and Boris did.

Cameron said he would stay on too, article 50 can be revoked.

Very selective quoting. If Cameron said something that fits my agenda, good if his shortcomings are exposed label him as a remainer, whose heart was never in it. Same logic applies for May. It will probably apply to Johnson in the long run as he never had any conviction about brexit anyway.

The future relationship doesn't mean a trade deal, never did, this is your misunderstanding. A country cannot negotiate a trade deal whilst a member, and must set out its terms of leaving and what the relationship will be for that period

The wording is "future relationship" as opposed to "temporary relationship up until the member leaves" within the two year period or any other period agreed.

article 50 can be revoked

Only with approval from Parliament.

If Cameron said something that fits my agenda, good if his shortcomings are exposed label him as a remainer, whose heart was never in it. Same logic applies for May

Both Cameron and May were/still are remain supporters. Cameron stepped down as PM as he did not want to lead a task he did not believe in. Correct thing to do I thought.

A trade deal cannot be negotiated whilst a country is a member, which is why the future relationship needs to be negotiated.

This is exactly what the Withdrawal agreement lays out.

The government wasn't obliged to implement the vote, it was advisory.
The great thing about democracy is that the government of the day can decide that an advisory referendum can be treated as binding 'just because' and that it can do so despite the fact that the thresholds usually applied to binding referendums were not in place.
Democracy is fab.

I doubt johnson believes in brexit but it's a convenient vehicle that got him into power.

So what else can the future relationship mean other than trade?

Again, this is just your opinion Mystery, in the same way that you have already declared "That's not Brexit."

Only if you are Dominic Cummings can it be assumed that what you want will be implemented.

and that it can do so despite the fact that the thresholds usually applied to binding referendums were not in place

Were thresholds specified before the 2016 referendum? I don't remember any.

Once MPs (498 of them) voted to invove Article 50 it became cast in law.

It's a convenient vehicle that got him into power.

It's also a puzzle. I still have no idea what Johnson actually wants to do with this power. Even now, Brexit (aside from the 50p coin) is remarkably undefined.

I know everyone has their own version of Brexit, but what are the Governments?

It's a convenient vehicle which got him into power, and one which he might well try to do a u-turn on if he finds that people are really against it. However, he might then find that he has boxed himself in and hasn't got space to do the u-turn.

Is a defined cut off not better than an undefined cut off?

Still leads to uncertainty, which you have previously stated cost the UK economy billions and caused by Remainers.... make your mind up!!! or is Boris a Remainer too?

Service industry requires only office space and telecommunications. So very easy to relocate

"Services" cover everything from marketing/advertising to banking to IT to insurance to sales to the millions self employed offering mtce/decorating or delivering your Pizza to Hayes travel.

Vast range, interlinked to manufacturing and back to services, to market advertise their products worldwide.

That it can, in some cases, be moved easily, makes it important we look after this sector.

German economy is 72% services based.....

Again, this is just your opinion Mystery

It was actually a question. However, on the subject of opinons it should be noted that everyone is entitled to an opinion. Very rare, if not impossible, that everyone would have the same opinion on the same subject.

This is why votes are held and democracy states that majority vote prevails and loser shall consent until the next vote takes place in which people choose again.

However, he might then find that he has boxed himself in and hasn't got space to do the u-turn

Can't see that bothering Boris. He existing wealth plus what he will make in fees after being PM will ensure he is set for life.

Yes, everybody is entitled to an opinion which is why previous attempts to moderate views on this thread was so odd.

Yes Boris is wealthy and probably set for life which makes him an odd choice to lead the so called brexit working class revolution doesnt it?

Still leads to uncertainty

How? If EU and UK don’t agree a deal by end of 2020 the default position is WTO Brexit. Might be the most favoured terms to trade on, but provides more clarity than undefined extensions which may or may not result in deal.

German economy is 72% services based

Which enables them to move easily too.

Yes, everybody is entitled to an opinion

Correct and democracy is delivered when majority vote is respected.

which is why previous attempts to moderate views on this thread was so odd

Think Bear was hoping people would say what they thought were successes or failures of Brexit rather a re-run of leave vs remain.

Democracy doesnt end after an election/referendum. People keep debating, challenging and holding politicians to account.

Successes/Failures cannot be discussed in isolation of all the promises/claims made over the last 4 years.

I had hoped this thread could be used for actual successes and failures but, aside from a few of those early on, it’s just the same handful of people having exactly the same discussion as we’ve had for 4 years

Shame really

Yes Boris is wealthy and probably set for life which makes him an odd choice to lead the so called brexit working class revolution doesnt it

Working class revolution was a possible reason for Brexit on the logic that if Government says Brexit is bad for the average person in the street, what they mean is Brexit is bad for themselves as Governments and MPs look out for themselves first. So people vote against the Government.

Many other possible reasons people voted Brexit that are not related to economics at all such as;

National pride
Dislike of unelected EU Commissioners like Barnier, Jucker, etc., being able to dictate to 440 million people
Uncontrolled immigration
WWII

So if Brexit happens then the feel good factor could be;

Hoorah we are independent again
EU has been told to piss off
UK has regained its identity as less foreigners around
Rule Britannia again like after WWI and WWII

Hence Boris is the hero just like Churchill after WWII and Thatcher after the Falklands war.

If everyone who lost a vote had to shut up we would never have a second referendum on the EU.

If people voted because they think EU commissioners can dictate to them they are poorly informed.

We never had uncontrolled immigration.

WW2 ended in 1945.