Brexit - the Good, the Bad and hopefully not the Ugly

[Bearbehind]

Following on the thread about how we will measure the successes or failures of Brexit, I’m just leaving this one here for people to record the successes and failures as they occur / as they see them

All welcome if you discuss the subject of the thread - this isn’t a thread for moaning about the fact Brexit is happening! 😁

How will farming and agriculture survive after no deal?

Tariffs on exports
Loss of workers
No subsidies
Increased freight costs
Cheap shitty products from wherever

If farming becomes unviable, then I predict that will be seen as a failure, and right in the very places that voted for Brexit. What will stop that happening? Genuine question.

lonely we have to wait and see

We don’t know how many of those things will happen, what mitigation there might be and what the actual impact is

And that’s the point. We just don’t know....which is not a good look for running a country, that’s all.

Mystery I wouldn’t say Brexit was a win for democracy, I suspect it is more of a success for electoral intervention. How truly free are we to make decisions when we are being influenced by targeted misinformation? The last GE was particularly eye opening for me on that point. For example, I know people who still believe that the photo of the boy being treated on the floor of Leeds General Infirmary was fake. It’s scary to see how misinformation takes hold.

Before I get jumped on, I know some people voted leave despite knowing it wouldn’t be easy and could be economically damaging, but I still think some leavers were/are being duped by the misinformation, meaningless sound bites like oven ready deal and horrible dog-whistling like “too long have EU citizens treated this Country as their own.”

If Brexit is a failure I would like to see that the blame lies with those who are responsible for the misinformation, not the electorate for believing them. It won’t do though.

What will stop that happening? Genuine question

Scrap HS2 so there is a contingency pot for farming.

Car manufacturing? Is that trident

@Limited123

Neither the remain nor the leave campaign can say they fought a fair fight.

UK does not give the EU £350 million per week as per the red bus paraded around by leave. Johnson was taken to court, but case was thrown out.

The 500,000 to 800,000 job losses predicted by remain did not happen.

I remember tabloids blaming everything on immigration in the run up to the referendum.

The list could go on.

That the majority vote was honoured is democracy preserved. If people think they were misled they can vote differently the next time.

The 500,000 to 800,000 job losses were based on Cameron declading article 50 immediately as he said, and didn't take into account 75bn of QE and guarantees to banks.

They did get right the lower growth ( 1 percent a year ) and the higher inflation though.

Failure - a data package I was using is no longer available and it will cost twice as much to replace.

Gonna laugh at all the tory voting northern towns.

Reap what you sow.

Please don't laugh at us, it is going to be grim. I live in one of the teeny bits of red though, but only because I moved a couple of miles down the road, I work in the new blue areas and I am so scared for the area and what the future holds.

However today in the car I was listening to a Last Night of the Proms album and realised we can now sing Rule Britannia with great aplomb.

Am I being too hopeful in that we won't have to hear 'You lost, get over it' again?

I'm not really going to laugh.

Its a bloody mess and people are going to get hurt.

The worst thing is that you know, somehow, those responsible for any problems will scapegoat someone else Just like all of the last 4 years.

Somehow Corbyn is responsible for the leave vote.
Hilary is responsible for Trump.
Corbyn is respnosble for Boris.

Even in victory they look to blame someone else.

Though as they say 'you either laugh or you cry', so who knows.

The 500,000 to 800,000 job losses were based on Cameron declading article 50 immediately as he said, and didn't take into account 75bn of QE and guarantees to banks

So the treasury overlooked the QE in their forecasts! Wow. Unemployment actually fell.

They did get right the lower growth ( 1 percent a year ) and the higher inflation though

The forecast of up to 800,000 job losses will have caught the eye of people a lot more than higher inflation and growth. Plus I maintain that uncertainty created by attempts to thwart the result added to reduced growth on the logic.

Uncertainty = risk

Risk = reduced investment

In summary the phrase Project Fear was correct as leavers did not change their minds and hence the reason;

Boris stormed the election as only party to promise Brexit would be delivered

Labour got their worst results since 1935 as they ignored all the labour voters who voted leave in 2016

Jo Swinson lost her own seat after saying she would revoke Article 50 regardless of the 2016 referendum result.

Neither. Democracy existed with or without Brexit

That Brexit is happening in 3 days has preserved democracy. Hence reason;

Boris stormed the election as only party to say they would deliver what people voted for.

Labour got hammered as they ignored the millions of traditional labour voters who voted leave in 2016. People voting Conservative in mining villages was incredible.

Jo Swinson lost her own seat after saying she would ignore the result of the 2016 referendum and revoke article 50.

Leavers stood their ground and ignored all the;

Leavers are stupid

Remain supporters know better

Mystery repeating things over and over again doesnt make them true. Although the winners as victims narrative certainly is.

Interesting though that those who bleat about democracy are so eager to close the pro EU arguments down. The great thing about democracy is you don't get to censor debate.

The treasury over looked the new QE put in by the BOE because they BOE said their wouldn't be any intervention.

Had Cameron declared article 50 on day one I'm sure there would have been a big loss of jobs. His resignation delayed everything which calmed markets and business.

We've so had significantly lower investment over this period, with a certain amount of hidden unemployment too.

Project fear? One thing wrong. most things right.

Project fact more like.

The biggest failure of Brexit - and it is one that has already happened, so no-one can say we need to wait and see - is the utter division it has created. Not to mention the ugly seam of racism and xenophobia it has exposed in what is meant to be a civilised country.

Yes the rise of xenophobia, the far right seems to get swept under the carpet. Which far more pressing and dangerous issue for the UK than people complaining about being called stupid.

Well as to be expected the 'good' is very thin on the ground, other than 'democracy innit'

No 'Project Fear' may not have made them change their minds but buses and posters was the reason for that. It is strange that PF not coming to fruition yet is more valid than all the actual lies that were told by leave.

Failure: Clause 26 is another executive power grab. link

Extract from link: But, beyond politicians interfering with the work of judges, why is distorting the meaning of EU law significant, especially since the UK is on its way out of the EU? One way of explaining the rationale behind Clause 26 is allowing the executive to decide that a particular interpretation of retained EU law should be changed. In that respect it constitutes a means of over-turning established interpretations of retained EU law rather than overturning retained EU law itself – perhaps to cover for when the relevant sunset clause runs out. For example, the notion of ‘worker’ is based on established CJEU case law which would be used by UK courts when interpreting retained EU law (Directive 2003/88/EC on the organisation of working time) to ascertain the status of a parcel courier as a worker. The Government, which may adopt a particular stance on protecting the rights of people working in the gig economy, may wish to change the CJEU’s interpretation given to the term ‘worker’ (to include or not a contractual right to use a substitute to perform all or part of their work), but without enacting legislation. Hence, Clause 26 would enable the Secretary of State for Employment to adopt delegated legislation to make provision for the courts to no longer follow the meaning of worker in CJEU case law and to give it a different meaning instead (i.e. that by sending a substitute they cannot be regarded as a worker in accordance with the Employment Rights Act 1996).

The great thing about democracy is you don't get to censor debate

Greater still is

Losers consent = Democracy

If Brexit is a failure I would like to see that the blame lies with those who are responsible for the misinformation, not the electorate for believing them. It won’t do though.

I will blame those who voted for this as well as those who campaigned for Brexit. How many times have we heard Leave voters say 'we knew what we voted for' ? Well this is it, they own it, if they've thrown away the peace in NI, that's on them. Any job losses (like mine) that's on them, our children unable to travel as we could, Leave voters own that as well. Equally, if the promised sunlit uplands are delivered, with no downsides, I will very happily concede that they were right and thank them.

Anyone keeping count of the pluses and minuses?

Scrap HS2 so there is a contingency pot for farming

That would be terrible! if HS2 doesn't happen, i would like that money put into opening new rail routes, increase capacity and lower fares.

NOT subsidise agriculture, which make up a tiny part of our GDP, farming needs to gradually move to having no subsidy, which i hope will happen after the 7 year tranche of funding has gone, CAP is is one area that the EU has failed in, unfortunately, the farming lobby is large and powerful, so i expect the waste and inefficiencies to continue... just under a different name.

Had Cameron declared article 50 on day one I'm sure there would have been a big loss of jobs

Speculation. Were 800,000 jobs lost when T May invoked Article 50 on 29 March 2017? No. Fact is that unemployment has reduced since the referendum.

We've so had significantly lower investment over this period

Reason is simple:

Failure to respect democracy = uncertainty

uncertainty = risk

Risk = reduced investment

Mystery repeating things over and over again doesnt make them true

That was Bears point about remain supporters presenting the same arguments that have resulted in two remain failures.