Brexit - the Good, the Bad and hopefully not the Ugly

[Bearbehind]

Following on the thread about how we will measure the successes or failures of Brexit, I’m just leaving this one here for people to record the successes and failures as they occur / as they see them

All welcome if you discuss the subject of the thread - this isn’t a thread for moaning about the fact Brexit is happening! 😁

You do realise that a FTA is no way comparable to the frictionless trade we currently enjoy?

For a start, here are some of the thing the government should have been getting on with in order to make Brexit as successful as possible:

1. Consulting with business on what they need out of future EU relationship to enable them to remain profitable post Brexit - this hasn’t happened according to Peter Foster.

1. Plan to give some advice/assistance to business on how to access markets that gov have highlighted are going to be critical to success of Brexit, as ultimately they have just made it more difficult for businesses to trade with the trading bloc that takes the most of our exports.

1. Give some guidance to businesses affected by NI protocol rather than the fingers in ears approach they’ve taken that GB to NI will be unaffected.

1. Address lack of customs agents as they will be required in any event and demand is going to massively outstrip supply.

Unfortunately most of the above require Brexit to be defined beyond “we won’t be in the EU anymore”

Mystery do you still think Boris is doing a good job?

Failure must be easier to define: worse trade deals than we had within eu, lower quality produce coming in, unrest in NI due to border issues just to mention a few.

Potential loss of FOM is not an issue for me as everyone in my family will soon have both uk and an EU country passport.

I'll have to give another thought on what a successful Brexit would look like imo.

Alignment is an umbrella term. We will probably unilaterally align with EU rules yes, but as I said in previous thread this is miles away from convergence as EU won’t recognise we have the same rules as we have the potential to diverge. So double cost for testing/registering/labelling etc for business.

Some countries, like Japan, have indicated that they do not want to just roll over the FTA we currently have with them as they want to know what our relationship with EU looks like before committing. Other countries have most favoured clauses in their agreements with EU meaning they can’t give us a better deal than we have already as they will be in breach of their FTA with EU.

How can it possibly be Ireland or EU’s problem to sort what U.K. needs to do to enact NI protocol concerning goods sent from GB to NI?

So why start from scratch. If a new deal is made surely there will be reference to existing standards.

Because everything the EU did, even if it was a UK initiative, was presented as something bad and we wanted to trade with the USA and revitalise the White Commonwealth.

If you are going to keep existing standards why bother to leave?

Listening to R4 late last night, an advisor to business (lawyer) said that we all need to disassociate the Political from the Reality.

So, she argued that Patel and Javid saying the UK will realign itself away from EU regulation but everything she hears from business and govt is that there is no intention to actually do that, in the short term....
However, what will happen is that business will need (and has already started) to move import export warehousing and distribution centres to Europe, this adds cost and complexity, so some companies will shut down UK operations and then import back into the UK and rest of the EU from their new EU bases.
She was asked what are the japanese are doing? she replied They have given up on JIT chains continuing and are looking to relocate or close down completely.

So that's Nissan and Honda gone then, later if not sooner. But I expect we will be told that they would go anyway and it's nothing to do with Brexit.

Some countries, like Japan, have indicated that they do not want to just roll over the FTA we currently have with them as they want to know what our relationship with EU looks like before committing

Not possible to say what the relationship is going to be as apparently no such discussions can take place between the EU and the UK until after 31st January 2020.

Nissan was always going to be the litmus test for brexit. Particularly pertinent as it is in the much lauded leaver heartlands mystery references. IIRC nissan sought assurances from the government after the referendum. Bet the reality set in for the government, shame they haven't been honest with the electorate.

Mystery do you still think Boris is doing a good job?

Negotiations on future relationship have not started yet as apparently not allowed until after 31st Jan 2020. So how can Boris's performance be measured?

Japan won't be giving the UK the same terms as the EU. Japan is a much bigger economy than the UK but much smaller than the EU. The terms will be to Japan's advantage

If you are going to keep existing standards why bother to leave?

Leave was to be able to make deals with non EU Countries without being controlled by EU.

I'll measure Johnsons performances already on that the fact he dithered on whether to support leave or remain. If May was accused of being a remainer it cannot be believed that johnsons heart is entirely in brexit. It was a trojan horse to get him into downing street. Johnson has no vision for the country (at least previous Tory leaders did). His vision is for himself. It does not bode well.

By non EU countries brexiteers mean the commonwealth. Farage forever banged on about trade deals with the commonwealth. The last wimperings of empire.

Japan won't be giving the UK the same terms as the EU. Japan is a much bigger economy than the UK but much smaller than the EU. The terms will be to Japan's advantage

Now that Japan has FTA with EU for cars there is no need to have any Japanese car plants in the EU. They can all be made in Japan and then be sold in the EU without tariffs. Good deal for Japan as they keep all the manufacturing profits and jobs. EU at best get jobs through dealerships.

There is a reason to have Japanese car plants in Europe, and they will, as product ranges in Europe differ and transport costs would make them less competitive against European marques. Also platforms on which cars are built are the same as firms work in partnership Nissan/Renault, Toyota/PSO etc.

They just won't build them in the UK.

There is a reason to have Japanese car plants in Europe, and they will, as product ranges in Europe differ and transport costs would make them less competitive against European marques

Other's say the opposite;

The gradual tapering of car tariffs from 10% to zero within seven years would make it easier to produce in Japan and then export to the EU, said David Bailey, the professor of industrial strategy at Aston business school

Particularly pertinent as it is in the much lauded leaver heartlands mystery references

Relevant to the entire EU as if Japan can sell cars in EU tariff free they don't need plants in the EU.

The gradual tapering of car tariffs from 10% to zero within seven years would make it easier to produce in Japan and then export to the EU, said David Bailey, the professor of industrial strategy at Aston business school

That analysis is incorrect unless it involves building new factories etc in Japan.

It also ignores the level of collaboration between firms in sharing technology and platforms.

Its funny how you are looking for a reason other than Brexit to blame the Japanese car companies leaving.

That analysis is incorrect unless it involves building new factories etc in Japan

It will. Construction of new plants in Japan creates work for Japanese and local contractors to build such plants. Former University friend has worked for Nissan since 1987 and has been asked if he is willing to relocate. Apparently the Nissan plant in Washington is modular design and can be dismantled and moved easily. Guessing that the exiting 14 plants in the EU are similarly built.

Brexit speeds up Japans departure from the UK - there is also the cost of setting & skilling up plants in Japan, The Japanese who have a massively aging population.

The Japan/EU FTA is the world's biggest such deal, it covers nearly a third of global GDP and 635 million people but we are voluntarily walking away from it.....

It allows for EU companies to bid for services contracts in Japan, something the UK would have benefitted from, EU firms now have a decent head start.
Covers Agri too, again, something the UK with (atm) high animal welfare standards can export a premium product range.

Japan (and anyone else) can extract a heavy price from the UK, they know we need deals and cannot afford to walk away.

Its funny how you are looking for a reason other than Brexit to blame the Japanese car companies leaving

The EU Japan FTA negotiations began in 2012 before Cameron announced in 2013 there would be a referendum if he was elected again. So wheels in motion ling before the referendum in 2016.

And prior the referendum, whilst those wheels were in motion there were significant plans for Japanese firms to invest in the UK. That stopped afterwards, Honda had plans to build the electric civic in Swindon. They stopped those.

Your friend who works for Nissan is forgetting that Nissan is 38 percent owned by Renault and they share technology and platforms.

Good made up anecdote though, they aren't moving staff from Washington to Japan.

Your friend who works for Nissan is forgetting that Nissan is 38 percent owned by Renault and they share technology and platforms

He has been there since 1987. Has senior production position. Maybe that is why he has been approached. Maybe those lower down the line will not be asked to move if Nissan confident they can source people in Japan?

As for 38% owned by Renault, how does that prevent Nissan from doing whever they wish with the other 62%?

Honda had plans to build the electric civic in Swindon. They stopped those

Honda spokesperson said demand for elecrtic cars is stronger in Asia. Hence the decision made to move from Swindon. Not related to Brexit. Link is:

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/honda-swindon-manufacturing-plant-closure-jobs-employees-latest-a8911766.html

Honda changed their tune on Brexit, after a senior manager was quoted as saying Brexit was a significant reason in a meeting earlier in the year.

In a fresh statement Honda softened its tone, saying that “no one single event” was to blame. “Honda is on record as stating that its preferred scenario following Brexit is one that delivers frictionless trade, access to talent and regulatory alignment,” the company said.

No version of Brexit does that & there is pressure on japanese companies not to upset their host countries, so we don't really know however, the timings of all these changes are perhaps more than circumstantial.