How will we measure Brexit’s success or failure?

[Bearbehind]

I’ve been pondering this for ages now

In any ‘normal’ project you’d have targets, objectives, deadlines, reviews etc but for Brexit beyond 2 deadlines of 31/1/20 and 31/12/20 there’s nothing

People talk about politicians being accountable now but what do we expect them to deliver and by when

There is a 3rd v.likely, option, a very loose FTA with many things left to be decided/negotiated on over the next few years.... more uncertainty.

In the circumstances I don’t see that as a bad thing

It’s that or no deal if things can’t be resolved

Basically keeping what we’ve got on an indefinite, informal basis isn’t the worst outcome

I see we are back to the cake and eat it approach.

But try as you may Mystery, it doesn't alter the fact that if they had supported May the first time, the UK would have been out ten months ago

Same argument applies to; Labour and SNP who did not back Mays deal. Remember UK laws requires that Brexit is passed through parliament.

Plus it was rubbish deal anyway. Pay to remain it was called even by remain MPs

I see we are back to the cake and eat it approach.

Who has said that?

May's deal didn't have a border in the Irish sea like Boris's.

Essentially its the same deal without the issues caused by Northern Ireland.

We are still paying for our commitments.

I thought she was part of your evidence for Remainers trying to thwart the 'will of the people

That was Ginas agenda. She thought that by forcing it through parliament it would go round and round forever and UK would never leave the EU. However, now that Boris has a big Majority that strategy for thwarting Brexit has gone.

Keeping what we've got on an informal basis. Why bother leaving at all? People wanted out. That should mean out fully, not one foot in because both feet out is too damaging. People know what they voted for.

May's deal didn't have a border in the Irish sea like Boris's.

That’s why it was rejected three times.

Border in Irish Sea works for me.

Labour and the SNP weren't and aren't in Government; Johnson now is and if he had supported May's deal the first time Leave would have been further along.

The SNP as a Remain party in a Remain country were never going to support Leave. Labour flip-flopped, but many of their MPs did back May's deal. Much good it did them because many lost their seats anyway.

Legal advice to govt is rarely published

But case law requires Brexit to pass through Parliament. So it had to be published otherwise how were MPs meant to know what they were being asked to vote on?

Keeping what we've got on an informal basis. Why bother leaving at all? People wanted out. That should mean out fully, not one foot in because both feet out is too damaging. People know what they voted for.

Goodness me, you really are determined to make this as difficult as possible and not see any positives even where it’s a choice between bad and really bad

I was responding to a post that said such and arrangement would mean more uncertainty

It’s obviously not intended to be forever but would you not prefer that to no deal

If you read my earlier post I also said I expect one of the failures to be the fact we might make trade deals we couldn’t have done before but that’s a the price of not having the deals we have currently

I can’t believe people are talking about TM as if they were the halcyon days!

She lost her majority due to her arrogance and incompetence- that’s why she couldn’t get her WA through

Labour flip-flopped, but many of their MPs did back May's deal

I would not say 5 labour MPs that supported Mays deal third time around is many.

Nor can the 3 labour MPs who backed Mays deal first and second time be considered as many.

Labour thought they could force a general election by blocking Mays deal. However, when Brexit party came along and topped EU election in May 2019 Labour changed their minds and no longer wanted a general election as they knew they would lose which is what actually happened.

Plus Mays deal was rubbish. Pay to remain.

She lost her majority due to her arrogance and incompetence- that’s why she couldn’t get her WA through

Exactly. Ignored the law totally. Signed her pay to remain deal without obtaining approval from Parliament.

I suspect that what will happen is that we start negotiating associate membership of those EU bodies where associate membership is available. We will probably spend as much or not more money doing so. As for those wonderful trade deals with the USA which seem to be the be all and end all - we shall see whether they materialise.

I foresee a gradual decline as we had in the 1950s when shoring up the Empire wasn't working, so we realised we had missed the boat as far as the EEC was concerned.

It is very difficult to see Boris Johnson being successful in anything he does - the things that were successful when he was London Mayor were someone else's initiative e.g. Boris bikes were really Livingstone bikes, the Olympics were won by the previous Labour Government. Johnson's successes - the garden bridge, cancelled at great expense, the buses which encouraged fare dodging, the zip wire in the wrong place, so something of a white elephant.

I foresee a gradual decline as we had in the 1950s when shoring up the Empire wasn't working, so we realised we had missed the boat as far as the EEC was concerned

EEC formed in 1957. French president DeGaulle vetoed UK application to join both in 1963 and 1967.

Good to see you have read my earlier posts Mystery. You are a bit like the elderly relative who tells you your own jokes because they have forgotten who told them in the first place.

who tells you your own jokes

Your statement that many Labour MPs supported Mays deal was the best laugh yet. 5 out 262 is not even 2%.

Makes Diane Abbott look like a
Mathematics genius by comparison.

Unfortunately Boris’s deal is worst than TM’s but Boris doesn’t the border issues. Ireland are already saying they will veto the trade deal if the UK doesn’t fall into line. I’m expecting an extension to be announced this summer as by then reality will have sunk in that the deals can’t be completed by the end of the year.

I didnt choose bad or really bad bear. I lost though. Happy to sit back and watch the winners do the heavy lifting.

Ah yes, 5 Labour MPs voting against their own whip counts for much more than the 34 Tories who voted against May's deal.

Now of those 34 at least six were kicked out of the party or chose to stand down. This still left such stalwarts as
Peter Bone
Suella Braverman
Andrew Bridgen
Bill Cash
Christopher Chope
Mark Francois
Marcus Fysh
Andrea Jenkyns
Priti Patel
John Redwood
Theresa Villiers

voting against May's deal. Bridgen is the one who thinks that all English people can swan into Ireland and claim a passport.

Suella Braverman was also on Any Questions about a year ago sounding off about 'unelectedMPs', making you wonder just how she thought she had gained her seat in Parliament.

Ireland are already saying they will veto the trade deal if the UK doesn’t fall into line

Does that not increase the chances of no deal?

I’m expecting an extension to be announced this summer as by then reality will have sunk in that the deals can’t be completed by the end of the year

11 months does seem a tight timeframe.

That’s why it was rejected three times

...leavers voted against leaving, ERG didn't like TM, almost all the uncertainty could have been avoided if they had supported their own elected leader.

Border in Irish Sea works for me

Would you say the same for a border between Wales and England? or Cornwall and Devon? an argument against an independent scotland is a customs border between Scotland and England.
Its quite outrageous that a sovereign part of the UK is being forced (by the UK 's own PM) to have customs checks in order to trade within the UK.