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Brexit

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Original poster

How will we measure Brexit’s success or failure?

999 replies

Bearbehind · 21/01/2020 14:30

I’ve been pondering this for ages now

In any ‘normal’ project you’d have targets, objectives, deadlines, reviews etc but for Brexit beyond 2 deadlines of 31/1/20 and 31/12/20 there’s nothing

People talk about politicians being accountable now but what do we expect them to deliver and by when

OP posts:
malylis · 27/01/2020 07:11

Thought to have cost us 4 percent in cumulative GDP since 2016.

Which is pretty much in line with the treasury "project fear" report.

jasjas1973 · 27/01/2020 08:01

UK Govt is going to ease visa travel for visiting academics and scientists, they won't be handled by the FO, so can be issued quickly with getting stuck in immigration.
This may limit any damage done to the tech/science/uni sectors, a concern i mentioned earlier and is to be welcomed.

I hope the health visa surcharge is also waived, which is payable even if private med insurance is in place :(

Funkycats · 27/01/2020 08:52

Interesting thread. Thanks for raising the question OP.

Kljnmw3459 · 27/01/2020 08:55

Brexit has been a massive success if the goal was just to stop being a member of the EU. I'm sure there are many of those who don't care what happens afterwards and at what cost. Even if we end up with Brexit in name only.

Peregrina · 27/01/2020 09:14

I don’t remember seeing a table published that listed which countries outside the EU the UK intends to target and with what goods and services the UK can provide.

No, but after getting on for four years that is the least we should expect. Country A - we offer product x in exchange for y. Not least it would give manufacturers an idea of what they are supposed to be producing for these new markets which are apparently going to open up as soon as we are out.

MysteryTripAgain · 27/01/2020 09:52

If not when Mystery

Subjective, but I would say no less than 10 years.

Who do the trade deals need to benefit to be deemed a success

The UK as a whole by reducing trade deficit.

MysteryTripAgain · 27/01/2020 09:53

Thought to have cost us 4 percent in cumulative GDP since 2016

How much of that was attributable to the uncertainty created by remain supports trying to thwart the result of the 2016 referendum?

NiceGuyNeddie · 27/01/2020 10:05

And how much to the uncertainty created by Boris and The Backstabbers sticking it to May, wrecking her way? and then Boris the Moron constantly talking about leaving with No Deal? A lot of fear and uncertainty caused by our Dear Leader on his way to the top

Peregrina · 27/01/2020 10:08

Yes, if Boris and the Backstabbers had 'got behind' May, then we would have been out for nearly a year now. However, they didn't so let's rewrite that inconvenient part of history.

NiceGuyNeddie · 27/01/2020 10:08

Funkycats what a lovely post Smile
Yes, I think the op should get a medal for starting this thread

jasjas1973 · 27/01/2020 10:10

How much of that was attributable to the uncertainty created by remain supports trying to thwart the result of the 2016 referendum?

We been through this before.......

The uncertainty was caused by May threatening a no-deal exit, you say she was a remainer but thats not true, she just had a different version of brexit to you.
Had leavers backed her WA, we'd have been out of the EU last March i.e. brexit! and no division of trade between GB/NI.

We do not know for sure how the backstop would have worked, let alone if it would have even been implemented, its an unknown.

MysteryTripAgain · 27/01/2020 10:11

And how much to the uncertainty created by Boris and The Backstabbers sticking it to May, wrecking her way

T May (remain supporter) created her own downfall by trying to make a deal with EU without complying with UK Law (the Gina Miller case law) that Brexit had to go through Parliament. She signed the WA without Parliament’s approval. She even tried to conceal the legal advise on the terms of the WA which effectively stated that the wording could result in UK being locked into the EU forever as no obligation for the EU to accept any suggestions made by the UK.

No deal is still a possibility.

MysteryTripAgain · 27/01/2020 10:18

Had leavers backed her WA, we'd have been out of the EU last March i.e. brexit! and no division of trade between GB/NI

It was the remain MPs that religiously voted against Mays deal. You can look at the results on google.

One question that remain supporters have never answered is;

Why did T May try and keep the legal advice on her WA out of public and MP sight? The Gina Miller case law established that Brexit had to go through Parliament, but she ignored the law.

MysteryTripAgain · 27/01/2020 10:22

Yes, if Boris and the Backstabbers had 'got behind' May, then we would have been out for nearly a year now. However, they didn't so let's rewrite that inconvenient part of history

Both Boris and JRM voted for Mays deal third time around. It was labour and SNP that voted her deal down all unanimously on all three votes.

Again I will ask remainers to explain why T May tried to keep the legal advise on her deal out of both the public and MPs?

Lonelycrab · 27/01/2020 10:22

No deal is still a possibility.

And it may well come to be a certainty. You seem to be suggesting that if that happens, business confidence will skyrocket as there is no more “uncertainty”Hmm

Do you honestly think that’s believable or likely? Do you think businesses in general are rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of no deal?

Peregrina · 27/01/2020 10:27

Next you will be trying to tell us Mystery that Boris Johnson didn't agree to May's deal at Chequers but then later walked out in a strop.

I am puzzled about your quoting Gina Miller - I thought she was part of your evidence for Remainers trying to thwart the 'will of the people'.

NiceGuyNeddie · 27/01/2020 10:30

Still banging the ol drum about May being a remain supporter even though she nearly destroyed her health trying to force her WA through.

True about rewriting history and they say it's the winners who get to write it so must be up to the losers to try to prevent that

Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/01/2020 10:30

Yes, I think the op should get a medal for starting this thread

Did no one ever say to you that if you can’t say anything nice then don’t say anything at all?

What are you getting out of this?

OP posts:
Peregrina · 27/01/2020 10:31

Both Boris and JRM voted for Mays deal third time around.

But try as you may Mystery, it doesn't alter the fact that if they had supported May the first time, the UK would have been out ten months ago.

MysteryTripAgain · 27/01/2020 10:32

And it may well come to be a certainty

Perfectly possible.

You seem to be suggesting that if that happens, business confidence will skyrocket as there is no more “uncertainty”

Neither businesses nor markets like uncertainty. Now that Brexit is going to happen that is a reduction in uncertainty.

Next step is how Brexit will happen. That has two possible outcomes. Deal or No Deal. Which it is to be will become more clear as end of 2020 approaches.

Do you think businesses in general are rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of no deal

There are over 5 million businesses registered in the UK. What each and everyone of them think of no deal I don’t know. Do you?

Original poster
Bearbehind · 27/01/2020 10:34

Are you talking about countries that we currently have no trade agreements/deals with as a member of the EU, ? Also do the trade deals you are talking about have to be more beneficial to the UK population than those we already have as members of the EU to be seen as a success ? Are we measuring quantity or quality or both?

frumpety I’m thinking of the deals we can negotiate only because we’re outside the EU

A failure of Brexit will be if we can’t get at least what we have already as EU members - unfortunately it’s a failure I’m pretty certain will crystallise

OP posts:
Peregrina · 27/01/2020 10:35

Apart from the attempts to derail and the "nah, nah, it's your fault" posts, I think it is a good question. To which we have had some answers, regardless of whether we think they are good answers or not.

jasjas1973 · 27/01/2020 10:36

It was the remain MPs that religiously voted against Mays deal. You can look at the results on google

Of course, they wanted to Remain, its not a difficult concept!! had the ERG got behind her WA it would have passed.

The 3rd vote was lost by 286 to 344, if the ERG/DUP had voted for it, would have got through, bet the DUP wished they had now!

Why did T May try and keep the legal advice on her WA out of public and MP sight?

Legal advice to govt is rarely published, perhaps you'd like to argue why Johnson has refused to publish the report into russian influence on UK electoral process?

jasjas1973 · 27/01/2020 10:39

That has two possible outcomes. Deal or No Deal

There is a 3rd v.likely, option, a very loose FTA with many things left to be decided/negotiated on over the next few years.... more uncertainty.

Peregrina · 27/01/2020 10:41

I should think a lot of businesses who don't export will think it doesn't affect them e.g. your local hairdresser or shops. But then, think, where do their supplies come from? I would be astonished if every single item they used was made wholly in the UK, entirely with UK materials. Not only that, if austerity continues, even the slightly better off will tighten their belts, so going for a hairdo every nine weeks instead of every seven. If all clientele to this, then yes, their businesses will suffer.

Since Austerity wasn't the fault of the EU, I fail to see how leaving it can remedy its effects.