How will we measure Brexit’s success or failure?

[Bearbehind]

I’ve been pondering this for ages now

In any ‘normal’ project you’d have targets, objectives, deadlines, reviews etc but for Brexit beyond 2 deadlines of 31/1/20 and 31/12/20 there’s nothing

People talk about politicians being accountable now but what do we expect them to deliver and by when

I have reported you - don’t worry about that

One has moved to Belgium in order to be based in the EU and the other is in the process of moving their base to Singapore

I can believe the move to Singapore as Corporate Tax is lower than the UK as are income taxes. Belgium seems an odd choice as corporate tax is double that of the UK. Unless Parker is telling porkies to try and scare people into thinking everyone in the UK is going to lose their jobs?

Plenty of reasons for moving to Belgium.

The link between corporation tax rates and investment has been reduced in recent years anyway.

I know that Rees-Mogg doesn't expect us to know until 50 years have passed whether it was a success or not, by which time

Misquoted. JRM said that it may take up to 50 years before the full benefits of Brexit are felt by the UK. However, that is an entire working generation. So those who were under voting age in 2016 might have retired before the 50 years is up?

Before the next election happens I would have expected to see some trade deals outside the EU in full swing.

Plenty of reasons for moving to Belgium

Must be good reasons If the company shareholders are prepared to see their post tax profit and hence dividends massively reduced due to higher taxes and incur the cost of making people redundant in the UK.

On balance I reckon my measures are going to be how many trade deals we manage to negotiate that we couldn’t inside the EU and the same for diverging legislation

They’ve been such prolific arguments that their success will be my benchmark

I am with Bear. If the trade deals happen then Brexit is a success.

Belgium seems an odd choice as corporate tax is double that of the UK. Unless Parker is telling porkies to try and scare people into thinking everyone in the UK is going to lose their jobs?

Their CT rate is 20% for SME's and from the end of 2020, 25%, its currently 29% pus a crisis tax, which increases it very slightly.

Redundancy payments in UK are pathetically low.

Must be beneficial overall to stay in the EU.

It won't have been done as a spite thing. Quite a few firms have relocated to the EU. Corporation tax is only 10 percent higher than the UK , its not quite the attraction you think it is (especially when higher costs of operating post brexit kick in).

You are a

Mystery - where do I say everyone is going to loose their jobs?

Belgian is a good choice for this business due to location of its supply chain. It’s successful and is forecast to continue to do so. The move has been 15 months in planning.

I knew that Mystery would jump in to say that Rees-Mogg had been misquoted. But it 'may take up to 50 years' does not quite square with 'easiest deals in history', done in an afternoon over a cup of tea, I think David Davis said.

But it 'may take up to 50 years' does not quite square with 'easiest deals in history', done in an afternoon over a cup of tea, I think David Davis said

Davis was talking about the ease of making the deals, not the time frame for the full benefits of such deals to materialise. A mortgage can be sorted quickly, but in most cases they take 25 years to clear before full ownership is achieved.

However, the suggestion that trade deals can be concluded by end of this year is optimistic.

*Mystery - where do I say everyone is going to loose their jobs?

The last sentence of your post.

Who knows what David Davis was talking about. You would have to be inside his head to know that, and I suspect that he didn't know himself.

But since you are talking about mortages, yes, they can be agreed quickly, but once agreed most people call themselves owner occupiers - they don't hedge it about with a caveat about 'well I will be in 25 years'.

mystery I am trying to play devils advocate on this thread and look on the bright side but Davis was talking out of his arse, hence he lost his job - pushed or jumped, it’s the same difference

I’ve said trade deals is one of my 2 markers for Brexit

I’ve yet to be convinced about what we can achieve outside the EU that we couldn’t within it but Inremain open to see

I have yet to see an single example of what we want to by or sell that we can’t now, other than sugar beet

Do you have any examples?

As well as trade deals, I would want genuine money in the NHS so that the horrors of short staffing which Squid talks about on the Westministenders threads are a nightmare memory from the past, instead of daily reality.

Oh and not just any old trade deal with the USA because it's someone's vanity project - trade deals which the business we have now want. Like the ceramics industry wanting a trade deal with the EU because that is where they do 57% of their business now, not the promise of maybe a trade deal in some years time with the USA who may still not choose to buy their products.

Not in 50 years time either.

Davis was talking about the ease of making the deals, not the time frame for the full benefits of such deals to materialise

And he was talking bollocks about the ease of making deals

Do you have any examples?

I don’t remember seeing a table published that listed which countries outside the EU the UK intends to target and with what goods and services the UK can provide.

To date UK has concentrated on rolling over deals that EU has with non EU countries as UK is not yet permitted to approach countries outside the EU. That can only happen after 31st January 2020.

After 31st January I think Boris will concentrate on new deals with the EU and the US.

As well as trade deals, I would want genuine money in the NHS

UK will stop making payments to the EU after the transition period which is currently set at 31st December 2020. Then the Brexit Dividend becomes available.

As it was Boris you went around the UK in the red bus with the pledge for more money for the NHS I think he is forced to make it visible that NHS has received more funding after Brexit. However, whether the extra funding equates to £350 million per weeks remains to be seen. Get the feeling that tax cuts will creep in to keep voters happy.

I think Brexit is a success if leave voters feel it's a success. I'm starting to notice a bit of creep here myself on the box pop interview etc. When asked if they still want Brexit, they don't quote sounds bites directly as much and say things like 'if Brexit means the country is great again, then yes I still want it...'. There is now a predicate to the sound bite.

Given the range of reasons for voting leave (some quite contradictory of course) I imagine it's going to be quiet a difficult task to please them. But let's see...

On balance I reckon my measures are going to be how many trade deals we manage to negotiate that we couldn’t inside the EU and the same for diverging legislation

Are you talking about countries that we currently have no trade agreements/deals with as a member of the EU, ? Also do the trade deals you are talking about have to be more beneficial to the UK population than those we already have as members of the EU to be seen as a success ? Are we measuring quantity or quality or both ?

As an example, the EU and Japan are members of the European Union-Japan Economic partnership Agreement, which covers a third of the worlds economy. Can the UK negotiate the same or better terms on its own in 11 months ?

There isn't going to be a brexit dividend, the current net payment to the EU is about 7.8 billion, leas than one percent of public spending. This will be lost as tax revenues fall post 2020.

Also would it be easier to negotiate new FTA's if we retain or align ourselves with, certain elements of our current EU membership ?

Someone remind me what Brexit has cost already 🤔

I am with Bear. If the trade deals happen then Brexit is a success.

If not when Mystery ?

Who do the trade deals need to benefit to be deemed a success ?