How will we measure Brexit’s success or failure?

[Bearbehind]

I’ve been pondering this for ages now

In any ‘normal’ project you’d have targets, objectives, deadlines, reviews etc but for Brexit beyond 2 deadlines of 31/1/20 and 31/12/20 there’s nothing

People talk about politicians being accountable now but what do we expect them to deliver and by when

*You are saying you cannot measure the impact of a Brexit as there are too many confounding factors and you do not know the outcome had there been no Brexit.

Well, the same goes for ANY political or economic decision, regardless whether you know the objectives (save a very narrow decision with very simple objectives).*

That's true, but you need to have a plan for how you are going to correct for those variables. Hand waving and mansplaining isn't a good look.

Any political or economic decision should be made on the basis of specific objectives, which in turn give rise to the development of a strategy to meet those objectives. Those objectives and that strategy can then be used to design criteria against which the achievement of objectives can be measured.

So first of all what we need to know is (a) what the government's objectives are (other than to reduce immigration and to fuck business) and (b) how they are going to meet those objectives.

What will difference will "pulling together" make.

Essentially that is just an attempt to shut down criticism.

No, no one needs to shut up and move on, leavers demanding that are highly hypocritical based on the actions of their supporters over the 41 years prior to the 2016 referendum.

@NoMorePoliticsPlease apparently we have to choose sides.
Fuck that.

Malyis,

It is irrelevant because Brexit is about how it changes GDP, not where we are right now.

It is like asking whether tuning an engine will make car A accelerate better than car B and someone replying that car B is currently going at 55mph to car A’s 50mph.

Misti,

Can you apply the same logic to our objectives in joining the EU and whether they were met? It should be far easier in that it is retrospective.

And putting a reasoned argument is not mansplaining. As hominem attacks just make an argument weaker.

How will we measure Brexit’s success or failure?

Is the question even valid? What about the massive area in-between it being a success or failure?

Remainers will declare anything short of a utopia a failure. Leavers will declare anything better than project fear a success.

Most likely it will be somewhere in between and both will argue the toss for decades to come. With one side saying "what was the point", and the other "it was worth it just to get out".

Their will be no metric to give a definite answer because its all relative to how the EU perform and what ones opinion was in the referendum.

Not really irrelevant because those figures alone don't mean anything. Comparison is important.

So improving GDP capita to the similar levels of the eurozone and gini coefficient . That would be a better aim

Is the question even valid?

This is an absolutely valid question because the EU was framed as the major source of the ills besetting this country. At the very least we need some measures of comparing the UK within the EU and outside the EU.

Yes, there would be some things difficult to pin down - would Irish reunification and Scottish Independence have happened anyway at some time in the future? Possibly, but Brexit might well have accelerated them.

It's a valid question - but not a simple question to answer.

The NI Programme for Government (PfG) is an Outcomes Based Approach (OBA) design. It sets out 14 high level outcomes to aim for, woolly but noble statements such as "we have more people working in better jobs", or "we are a shared society that respects diversity".

NI PfG

There are then a set of indicators and measures - how will we actually show that more people are working in better jobs, for instance? Does this link to skills and educational achievement? Does something tangiential like internet connectivity play a part?

How do you measure a shared and diverse society anyway?

And then there's cause and effect. If we measure an improvement in mental health, can we say categorically that was a s a result of a particular strategy or policy?

Gosh, so sweetly reasonable from a poster who only days ago was bombarding opponents with snake emojis and having a tantrum 'cos someone split on them and told others where they'd moved to. Oh dear

What do you get out of shit stirring like this?

Is the question even valid? What about the massive area in-between it being a success or failure?

True - I probably should have used the plural for each - successes and failures is probably more relevant

With an independent Scotland.

I think @NiceGuyNeddie has remembered it wrong. But shit stirring sounds about right.

What do you get out of shit stirring like this?

You're not so squeaky clean y'self so get off your high horse bear

Your own part wasn't so pretty. I'd try to be a grown up if I were you and leave it where it belongs.

I think bellini has just summed it up

neddie I’m not sure what your motives are but your posts are pretty poor form

Maybe you should just not bother mentioning it, since you're so far far above it all?

We didn’t - you bought it up neddie 🤔

And then you mentioned it. So therefore you mentioned it.

Oh, so you make goady and provocative posts but expect people to ignore them rather than respond?

You’ve been back on the pub thread and tried stirring it up again and got the thread a warning from MN then but they had the good sense to ignore you

I’ll do the same now

Yes, I think that's best really.

Funnily enough it was the very same poster who was yet again referring to 'unwanted' posters in a derogatory way. I really hate that hypocrisy.

The pub thread is a massive echo chamber anyway.

The pub thread is a massive echo chamber anyway.

And this hasn’t been made so??!!

PMSL

Some people just can't bear to be disagreed with, it drives them into a rage so they prefer the peace of the echo chamber. It's understandable even if it's very foolish