How will we measure Brexit’s success or failure?

[Bearbehind]

I’ve been pondering this for ages now

In any ‘normal’ project you’d have targets, objectives, deadlines, reviews etc but for Brexit beyond 2 deadlines of 31/1/20 and 31/12/20 there’s nothing

People talk about politicians being accountable now but what do we expect them to deliver and by when

I imagine Minford didnt feature much in the pro brexit tabloids either.

Thing is when people post on-topic - for eg my question about what criteria you use to measure success giving the government does not appear to have a strategy - you don't get an answer. People just want to have a poke at totally irrelevant Labour manifesto promises.

You can't measure success unless you know what success looks like.

Is success fewer immigrants? Friction free trade with NI? £350 million a week for the NHS? At some point, someone is going to have to decide.

I imagine Minford didnt feature much in the pro brexit tabloids either.

If he had the result might have looked very different. Hard to believe that the good folks of Sunderland or Derby would have voted for a plan to export their jobs.

Mystery up thread you said re vote/remain split in 2017 GE that your parents voted labour by tradition (mining village), but are leave supporters, but now you say they switched to Tory when labour didn’t endorse the referendum result, so which is it?

I don't think the EU will get most of the blame when things go belly up. No point blaming them when they will have moved on and stopped listening to the rantings of a insular island nation.

It is far more likely remainers, who will be visible as individuals, politicians, organisations and businesses take the flak for not pulling behind Brexit and not believing enough. That has certainly been the theme since 2016 no reason to belive it will change anytime soon.

Thats why calls to move on or unify fail to recognise what is actually going on here.The UK is in the middle of a culture war.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7928103/amp/PM-threaten-EU-high-tariffs-speed-trade-talks.html

Anyone read this?

This is a ridiculous threat, tariffs are not just on finished cars but on all automotive parts. Looking at supply chains this would kill Nissan, Toyota and Mini in the UK. The EU know that too.

There would be retaliation too, so Nissan, Mini and Toyota, who all have excess capacity in EU plants would just move production there.

Land Rover have a new factory in Slovakia.

All Diesel Minis are made in Austria.

You can tell where this is headed.

You can tell where this is headed

...that the UK and the EU will be rivals, not quite enemies but certainly any close partnership will be long gone.

Tariffs on european cars will wreck the choices for UK consumers plus and the dealer network too.... that Brexit Allegro is starting to look like it could be a reality

that Brexit Allegro is starting to look like it could be a reality

nothing like restoring national pride though...

Longbridge no longer exists, it'll be Morgans ( more expensive cause of their BMW engines), and JLR.

The EU won’t get the blame - they haven’t done anything wrong. They aren’t leaving. They will protect their members regardless of whether that has a negative effect on the UK. This could involve businesses moving out of the UK and into an EU country (it is already happening due to supply chain/JIT uncertainty).

Misti,

I have given 3 simple metrics:

GDP/capita growth vs the Eu.
Consumer confidence.
Some form of ‘well-being’ index, there are plenty around.

These need to be measured over a decade or so.

If you don’t like this, come up with a meaningful critique or a better metric or metrics.

Another

I know better

Statement

You're very proud of that aren't you? Repeating it over and over, straight out of the Brainwashing For Dummies handbook.

GDP/capita growth vs the Eu.
Consumer confidence.
Some form of ‘well-being’ index, there are plenty around.

None of those measure Brexit impacts directly. Consumer confidence, GDP and well-being might well have outstripped EU competitors inside the EU. How do you plan to isolate the "Brexit effect" from the compounding variables?

Ideally to test the impact of Brexit as a government policy you need a clear idea of what the objectives of the policy are.

Other than reducing immigration, it's not clear to me that there are any objectives that can be used as criteria for measuring the success or otherwise of the government's Brexit policy.

Misti,

You are saying you cannot measure the impact of a Brexit as there are too many confounding factors and you do not know the outcome had there been no Brexit.

Well, the same goes for ANY political or economic decision, regardless whether you know the objectives (save a very narrow decision with very simple objectives).

And this is actually the problem with Economics as a predictive Science and why I would argue that, although economists might do brilliant models based on their assumptions, you just cannot isolate bits of the economy, so their predictions are as meaningless as a monkey throwing darts. In fact, it has been shown that the best predictor of GDP growth is GDP growth the previous year; it beats the average economist 9 out of 10 times.

Given the above I always find the reliance on ‘experts’ (in economics) hilarious. They are the astrologers of the 21st century.

I would say, however, that remaining in the EU would align our economy more and more closely with that of our EU neighbours and any significant divergent economic performance in either direction will testify to the success or failure of Brexit.

The legislation [child marriage in Turkey] you linked to hasn’t been passed yet, Brexit legislation has.

Even if there is legislation, it does not make something morally right. At the risk of invoking Godwin's Law - Hitler passed legislation to severely discriminate against the Jewish population. Some people still opposed it and were prepared to take the consequences.

Well Brexit isn't like child marriage or millions murdered in camps, but those of us who think it's wrong will still oppose it, and try where we can to promote what we think is the right or better course of action.

Eurozone GDP per capita is already higher than UK.

Gini coefficent of the UK is already higher than that of of the EU as a whole, and of individual countries and is far higher than countries of equivalent GDP.

The UK has a lot of catching up to do.

The legislation [child marriage in Turkey] you linked to hasn’t been passed yet, Brexit legislation has
I'm aware of that Peregrina, which is why I wrote:
If the bill passes into law, should they then stop arguing about it and 'make the most' of it'?

The EU won’t get the blame - they haven’t done anything wrong

EU did not follow Article 50 correctly. Discussion on future relationship was meant to take place same time as withdrawal agreement. However, after the referendum EU moved the goal posts so that UK has to leave the EU before discussions on future trade can begin.

Well Brexit isn't like child marriage or millions murdered in camps, but those of us who think it's wrong will still oppose it, and try where we can to promote what we think is the right or better course of action.
Precisely.

Malyis,

That is a real FUD post. Firstly it is irrelevant to the discussion and, secondly, you have decided to include only the Eurozone and not the broader EU. I suspect English GDP per capita might be first of all and certainly well above the Eurozone.

UK GDP is slightly higher than the whole of the EU combined, but by less than the eurozone is above the UK.

Eurpzone and English GDP per capita are similar, but English gini coefficient is higher.

Why is it irrelevant to the discussion you have your measures of success. I showed that the UK has a way to go before improving on EU data.

@ragged
The minute you wrote "the people" in quotation marks you set the tone of your reply.

What about we all pull together and make the best of the inevitable situation?

What about we all pull together and make the best of the inevitable situation?
How do we 'pull together'? What shall I do to show I'm pulling together?