Westminstenders: The only way forward is up.

[placemats]

A new thread as the other one is getting full. I'm enjoying the post election discussion. Every view is listened to and welcomed.

Brexit is happening, but what kind of Brexit will it be?

New leaderships for both Labour and the LibDems.

Most importantly, will Britain be Great in 2024?

Cendrillon would do well to recall the concept of hubris and pride before a fall. All this crowing will be short lived.

I don’t personally believe BJ will go near soft Brexit but he has two options: 1. Hard Brexit (even No Deal) that will nuke the economy thus what appears to those at the back like a win is simply lose lose. Or 2. Soft Brexit which is ‘not really leaving’ to many Brexiters out there including the ERG and will seem like a betrayal. It will also see the U.K. far more under the EU’s thumb than before. In the long term it will just be regarded as the fuck up it is.

There is no good Brexit. Everyone who does not understand that now, has the next 5-10 years to figure it out.

We Tories know what’s what: win and keep power, then worry about the details later.

An astonishingly unintelligent comment even for you.

The Tories I know are well aware of the party’s faults, of their bare-knuckle scraping into power over the past decade, that the more intelligent and moderate Tories have gone, that they have won now only because the opposition was so dire.

They’re also aware that Tory support is massively bolstered by the 60+ bracket. (84% I think of 60+ voters voted Tory this GE).

Under 50 Tory support falls off a cliff.

In 10 years half those 60+ Tory voters will be dead, in 20 most of them.

This is basically the last fart of fascism - a karmic wave deep from the 1930s. Ride it while you can, because the Conservatism is still dying and fascism always looks stupid, ugly and embarrassing in the end.

💐@CrunchyCarrot

I need to start a thread, asking people to join Labour.
But I'm still scared.
MN is scary.

Those that join Labour wont get to vote in a leadership election for 6 months, I forgot the NEC wanted to stop the influx of votes for Corbyn during the Owen Smith leadership challenge so they introduced that rule

But I'm still scared.
MN is scary.

Perhaps I haven't been a member long enough to fully understand this. Maybe I have been in scarier places!

Do. It. We need something to focus on besides the shitstorms the Tories will cause.

This is a genuine question Cendrillion (though I think you use another poster name on the Brexit arms threads) and I'm hoping you'll deign to answer. How will the Tories benefit us for years to come? The benefits are very simple for my Tory voting extended family, and was explained to me years ago, if you have money, you vote Tory. As simple as that. No increase in personal, capital gains etc and no reduction in IHT. Are these the benefits you speak of i.e. you are also wealthy?

Those that join Labour wont get to vote in a leadership election for 6 months

I half suspected it, Just, but figured I'd do it anyway.

For people wishing to start analysing facts about this election, Paul Hilder on Twitter has begun analysing results.

It matters because understanding the results gives us a snapshot of where we are now - and thus what needs to be done moving forwards.

twitter.com/paulhilder/status/1206317063607914496?s=21

It's a boring point but, despite the Conservative majority & the inevitability of Brexit, politics in the U.K. is still very volatile.

As we keep saying on these threads, Brexit is not simple. It's complexity suggests we have stormy waters ahead.

So, I'm posting that link because the analysis of the MRI scan of the U.K. (in the form of the GE) is necessary to understanding some of what we can expect in the near future.

I do also agree about Wales being forgotten when talking about the electoral map of the UK - but my posts were about the impact (or non impact ) of Scotland leaving the UK.

BigChoc is right: if Scotland hadn't been part of the UK in 2017, May would have won a majority . But she'd have only had 297 seats in a Parliament that would only have required 294 for a majority if I've done. Y mental arithmetic correctly So it still wouldn't have been a stable government (which is what the analysis has suggested: that no Parliament where Scotland has made a difference forms a stable government) - and given the ERG rebels (and BJ ), she probably still wouldn't have got her deal through.

This is where you all are! I'd lost you.

The rules on who can vote in this contest haven't been settled yet, Just.

It may well be that they'll be set to deter 'entryists'. Ironically, of course, by a very pro-NEC to deter the anti-Corbynists.

But I still think it's worth a punt.

Hello, OhYouBadBadKitten.

But Louise why do you think he / they must deliver for them, not just on Brexit but on loads of other things? With a huge majority, no effective opposition, and moves to silence critics, they don't have to deliver anything really. There is no one for them to think/worry about for another 5 years.

And I agree Tatiana that we are not going to see any soft Brexit but disagree on the death of fascism. This is an era of ugly politics again.

I don’t personally believe BJ will go near soft Brexit

I think you rightly identify the issues. The question is: who will care about a soft Brexit being BRINO? This election shows that you can sell people anything with a compliant/cowed media, and that it's the optics that count not the reality. I wouldn't rule out BRINO or a long transition, because once we get past 31st January the vast majority of people will have "got their Brexit" and will cease to care about it.

We know from years of debate that only a tiny minority care about the detail and an even smaller minority actually understand the detail. That will not change on 31 Jan 2020 and therefore if Johnson wants to, he now has the space to force a softer Brexit with little or no political comeback.

if you have money, you vote Tory. As simple as that.

Not true. I’m wealthy but I’ve never voted Tory.

London, home to many of the wealthiest people in the country and the highest property prices, mainly voted Labour. Two of only four inner London constituencies where the Tories managed to scrape in - Kensington and Wimbledon - did so on a handful of votes. Tory support is relegated to outer London.

With a huge majority, no effective opposition, and moves to silence critics, they don't have to deliver anything really. There is no one for them to think/worry about for another 5 years.

They have MPs representing many of the constituencies which will be worst affected by Brexit, and a lot of those votes were only loaned. If you want to win an election in 2024 you can't ignore those constituencies for 5 years.

To be fair, Tatiana, that poster was describing the mindset of people who vote Conservative.

Mindset.
Of people who vote Conservative.

It really doesn't matter about well off people who vote Labour.

We've got their votes.
(And I thank every one of them. I appreciate those votes. Thank you.)

It's worth listening because we do, actually, need to win those votes.

I’m signed off sick and considering my future. Don’t think I can go back to A&E.

I know two doctors who have handed in their notice already, and dozens more talking about it. One of them was a doctor of 10 years experience (as am I.)

A&e is in pieces. We tried to tell people. No one cares. I’m done.

* * Therefore if Johnson wants to, he now has the space to force a softer Brexit with little or no political comeback.

That's the big question. Does he want to? Is he in the pockets of Cummings, Falconer, Singham,ERGers ??

Not sure who are the dominant influences here.

I've just spent the weekend with my Tory voting family 'celebrating' Johnson's stonking majority with champagne.

Just wanted to say commiserations to DrBlackbird. Another small positive I guess for those of us that didn't have to do that.

I'm not a great boozer but over the weekend in a (real) pub DH said what would I like, I said mulled wine if they were doing it, or a gin. He came back with a mulled gin. It's going to be our new Christmas thing.

chatongris Let's hope that's a thought-provoking factor when it comes to how Johnson's government acts in the next 5 years.

Much depends on the alternatives offered to those constituencies in the run up to the next GE.

Oh God Squid I'm so sorry I cross posted flippancies about mulled gin.

You are not alone. My friends who work at Hounslow and St Thomas says there's staff of all levels off with stress or depression. Another friend at Great Ormonde street said the same.

Aww squid please take care of yourself

Dont worry though Bear and Cendrillion have said the NHS is safe and going to get loads of money apparently

Squid It's a pretty bitter drink, for sure.

I think if you're lucky enough to have the skills and youth to move elsewhere in the world for a bit, you should.

It's going to be very bumpy in the U.K. over the next few years.

I think you rightly identify the issues. The question is: who will care about a soft Brexit being BRINO? This election shows that you can sell people anything with a compliant/cowed media, and that it's the optics that count not the reality. I wouldn't rule out BRINO or a long transition, because once we get past 31st January the vast majority of people will have "got their Brexit" and will cease to care about it.

I don’t disagree with any of this. Many if not most people won’t care what type of Brexit it is as long as it’s Brexit. That saves face, in the short term at least. In the long term it loses face as it will have weakened the UK’s position immeasurably and everyone will have to confront that eventually.

But the people who do care - ERG and their followers, will kick up an enormous fuss and cause BJ the most problems.

How strategically does BJ manoeuvre from his hard Brexit deal to a soft Brexit position. That will be very hard to pull off.