Westminstenders: The only way forward is up.

[placemats]

A new thread as the other one is getting full. I'm enjoying the post election discussion. Every view is listened to and welcomed.

Brexit is happening, but what kind of Brexit will it be?

New leaderships for both Labour and the LibDems.

Most importantly, will Britain be Great in 2024?

I wonder if the 'youthquake' did happen but in city areas? As for those once Labour towns now Tory, a lot could be places where the young people leave to study, and never go back.

I think the young generation will go for more direct action - like that on climate change. This is something which could come to bite Johnson (and Trump) on the bum, however much they deny it.

I have long held the view that if as many people as in June 2016 indicate they want something, then it is untenable for their elected representatives to stand in the way of delivering it. I do feel vindicated on that point by the results of Thursday night.

They have to find out exactly what it is that people want. 'Getting Brexit done' i.e. we are sick of hearing about it, but then what? It's time they went out to listen to people. Johnson is making a show of this; he does realise that the Tory weak area is the NHS. He was the one who stood in front of the bus, so he's known that all along, but delivering it will cost. I fully expect some sleight of hand - and Peter being robbed to pay Paul, because I don't think his normal Tory base will want to stump up.

Pmk

Peregrina I think you're right in your wonderings.
Those are things I suspect might be the case.
Haven't seen any research yet, though.
I'm absolutely sure they're going to go towards direct action, though.
I was a progressive in the 80s/90s, when expression of such leanings was effectively blocked in Parliament.
I, and many others, turned to direct action.
Or 'extra-Parliamentary politics'.
It was the only expression possible.

It's a far harder route to success, though.
And you get burned out - for no pay.
☹️

The problem is that the ref split the country in 2
if the result had been anything like 67.2% - the 1975 Remain result - then that would have been an undisputed mandate for such a far-reaching change

Similarly, I think the SNP would be taking a big risk to press for a referendum without at least a 60:40 in favour of Indy

BJ's attitudes and actions may indeed provoke Scotland so much that NS can gain a 52:48 decision,
but seeing the bitterness of one narrow Leave decision, would that be wise for Scotland ?

However, Scots could also be angered by the Tories refusing a referendum after Brexit and hence the numbers for Indy rising
(since Cameron in Indy1 said that Independence would mean Scotland leaving the EU)
So the best outcome would be that the SNP don't ask for Indy2 - but I suppose we can't expect them to refrain.

No.
It's definitely sad, Mother.

😁 I almost managed to forget about the issue of Scottish Independence for a whole day, BigChoc.

btw, Brilliant verdict on Swinson and LDems on another thread:

"At least Jo Swinson now knows what a woman is -
an adult human female with a vote"

Infuriating for me, as a centrist and feminist - and a scientist - that the LDems are so authoritarian & batshit about fundamental biology & womens rights

When it comes to insulting voters, telling a GC feminist that she can't join the party and her vote isn't wanted, is as stupid as it gets

The problem is that the ref split the country in 2

Not only that, the election has confirmed it. Because of the FPTP system, Johnson has a big majority, but in practice, he only got 46% of the vote, so in reality a lot of people are not behind him. Glib talk of 'One Nation Toryism' isn't going to make people like me get behind him either.

I suspect he knows this, and that is why he wants to limit the power of the judiciary and stifle debate. It's easy to get depressed by this, but then in my adult lifetime I have seen Communism brought down. If sufficient people are against one system and for another, they find a way to communicate and force change.

I do wonder if ridicule is one way to go. Boris Johnson had the audience laughter edited out of his speech. On Friday morning the newly re-elected MP for Henley made a reference to the Tories tackling Climate change - to derisive laughter, and I suspect he will quietly forget about that one in future speeches.

The Ldems are a party who have been infiltrated by a fraction of 1%,
who definitely won't listen and jettison a toxic ideology

who will continue to exclude GC feminists but not those who associate with paedophiles

• this indulgence risks a major scandal breaking out in the future that will cripple them for years

Mirror image cats to (belatedly) mark my place.

I'm going to repeat in words of one syllable something that I have pointed out across many threads (including the last one) but that people don't seem to grasp, the trope is so ingrained

Scotland remaining or not remaining part of the UK will make no difference to the party in power in Westminster

It didn't during the Blair years. It didn't during the Thatcher years. It didn't make a difference to BJ's win last Thursday. He'd still have won.

On those rare occasions that it has made a difference, the resulting government is not stable. As it happens, Scotland did make a difference in 2017: without the 13 Scottish Conservative MPs, May would not have had enough enough MPs to even consider a C&S arrangement with the DUP.

And Cameron managed to win a unexpected majority in 2015 with a single Scottish Conservative MP

Westminster gets the government that England wants It's a simple function of population.

As it happens, Scotland did make a difference in 2017: without the 13 Scottish Conservative MPs, May would not have had enough enough MPs to even consider a C&S arrangement with the DUP.

There’s a great irony of history: May’s Government wouldn’t have survived without those Scottish MPs, and then Boris couldn’t have become PM, negotiated his Deal, or won this landslide.

Blame Scotland! Blame Scotland!

(To the tune of “Blame Canada!)

To add to that prettybird - the Tories are only the biggest party in England. Labour is still the biggest party in Wales. A fact which barely made the news.

Turnout was down though - I suspect Labour voters staying at home.

Without the 59 Scottish MPs, May would have won a majority in 2019

That would likely be a calculation in the future, if age demographics continue to worry the Tories:
they would have a massive advantage if the HoC were without those 59 Scottish seats and 18 NI seats

They are most unlikely to ever win 30 of those 59 Scottish seats:
they have experienced the nightmare of being held to ransom by the DUP and having an international treaty vetoed by 10 MPs who were elected by about ¼ million voters

Oops May in 2017 of course !

Continuing what ifs:

May would probably have got her original NI backstop and deal through, for Brexit on 31 March
and avoided the months of delay that have only deepened the bitterness and divide

As it's still only day 3 days post election I'm going to allow myself to still feel depressed and angry.

Especially as I"ve just spent the weekend with my Tory voting family 'celebrating' Johnson's stonking majority with champagne. The most I can say is that they live in a Torygraph bubble world mixing with only other Tories. If you want to talk echo chamber, that's a pretty strong one. In the main, Tories vote. Tories vote Tory. Regardless. My family, for example, all voted Tory despite all being Remainers. Being Tory trumps remain. For Labour leavers, leaving trumped being Labour. The former may have known about the trade implications of leaving, but I suspect many of the latter didn't / don't.

No one I know personally who voted Leave, knew one iota about the critical importance of the UK's trade/custom's union/single market relationship with the EU. Repeatedly remain posters asked Leave posters to explain the benefits they saw in leaving, no one ever really gave a substantial reason. And yes I know now we're leaving...

Post election, it's /interesting to hear how some posters voted Tory (I think that's what they're saying) because they buy into the message that the Tory party is best to manage our economy vs the successful portrayal of Labour as the party bankrupting the country.

Yet ironically, it's the Tory's wilful mismanagement of the economy that worries me, both past and future.

I'm depressed and angry because we know (as contrary to Gove, I'm not done with experts) that the majority of economists and most of the business community have clearly identified that Brexit is a 10 year economic hit. I'm also depressed (and angry) that Johnson can do whatever he bloody well wants to now with absolutely nothing and no one to stop him. Trust? Believe him? He needs to meet his promises? Good god. He does not have to worry about any of that now!

Finally, what seriously worries me is how he has already moved to hamper the BBC as independent press. This is the first move on Cummings part to demolish the opposition and entrench power. Move fast. Break institutions. It's all there in his blog.

Yes, we can all argue about what the BBC has done / not done this election, but they are the only formally independent press in the UK, what Kofi Annan called the UK's gift to the world. So so clever for No 10 to blame the BBC for now refusing to send ministers to the Today programme to be interviewed. (like some posters here blaming Labour voters for losing the election/forcing them to vote Tory, just weird). Like a husband saying 'you made me have the affair'. When, god, the real reason No 10 is "withdrawing engagement” from the Today show is to protect Johnson from future scrutiny. To prevent him from being held accountable. At one fell swoop hobble the critical voices and protect the leader for being shown up as the inept he is. Genius and another trick taken from the US Republicans and Trump. And this is one tiny indication of how we'll see opposition (free press, independent judicary, holding goverment to account) hamstrung and ultimately outmaneouvered. Anyone else at all worried about this?!

We can criticise Labour all we want and Corbyn but today I am still allowing myself to be depressed. Maybe by tomorrow I'll accept it all. Where to from here? Another irony is how I"ve never yet voted Labour, but maybe it's time to join the party?

Okay that was way too long for a MN post and now it's off my chest, I'll be more succinct.

Tories vote. Tories vote Tory. Regardless. My family, for example, all voted Tory despite all being Remainers. Being Tory trumps remain. For Labour leavers, leaving trumped being Labour.

Isn’t it ironic that the side of politics aligned with individualism coalesces like a rock at election time despite internal differences, whereas the collectivists go all fissiparous at the sight of a ballot box and a wedge issue? We Tories know what’s what: win and keep power, then worry about the details later.

Same with the rest of your post, which I enjoyed. Where others see game-playing and deviousness, we see pure power politics that will benefit us for years to come. And we approve

I'm sick of the gloating by the Tory voters I know ( who own their own homes and made money from bricks and mortar) I'm surrounded by them here. They never see the others point of view either.
They seem so superior. It makes me angry to be honest. Still , it's done now and have to see how things go. I'm hoping that it's maybe not as bad as i fear it might be.

DrBlackbird Please join. 💐

I am glad someone else has pointed that out about Wales peregrina because I feel like I have been a stuck record!

Just signed up to be a Labour Party member. I don't know if it's early enough to be able to vote for the leadership candidates - I hope so!

The thought of 10 more years of the Tories (which is what we will get unless they fuck up royally) fills me with dread. Got to do my (very small) bit to try to help.