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Brexit

Westminstenders: The only way forward is up.

999 replies

placemats · 15/12/2019 16:35

A new thread as the other one is getting full. I'm enjoying the post election discussion. Every view is listened to and welcomed.

Brexit is happening, but what kind of Brexit will it be?

New leaderships for both Labour and the LibDems.

Most importantly, will Britain be Great in 2024?

OP posts:
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12
thecatfromjapan · 15/12/2019 21:23

Oh please, please do, chatongris.

ListeningQuietly · 15/12/2019 21:24

Frankgrimes
Swinson was never going to be either the prime minister or the leader of the opposition
her campaign was an ego driven disaster
the party switchers were ego driven disasters
BUT
this board is about the key decision makers in the future of the UK around Brexit

if Labour do not get their arse in gear then the Libdems might have a place again

Alsohuman · 15/12/2019 21:24

RTB has just pretty much said what I’ve been trying to say but you’ll listen to her rather than me

What she said may be what you wish you’d said but it bears no relation to what you’ve actually posted. Voting for a government that is and will inflict serious harm to vulnerable people and then trying to blame the opposition for making you is pretty damn low.

Violetparis · 15/12/2019 21:25

Bearbehind, I think Labour lost for a number of reasons, Corbyn was obviously a factor, their manifesto was so radical it was off putting to many people, they failed to deal with anti-semitism, leave voters didn't like their second referendum policy etc.

For Labour to recover imo they need to have a leader who is regarded as moderate and sensible.

RedToothBrush · 15/12/2019 21:25

Just, whose votes do you need to win an election?

It's not just those who agree with you.

It's also those who are fundamentally less sure and less committed.

It's people like me who aren't party members.

I'm not tribal. I vote every election based on what policies, circumstances, candidates and leadership there is.

If you cant connect we someone who is open minded and generally understands the limits and issues with political system and is moderate you are going to have an issue.

You can't just magically create a new wave of fanatics who suddenly decide to support a hard left agenda.

You have to communicate beyond your own bubble without judging them as being worthy, ideologically pure and good enough for your party. Which is what has happened in the last couple of years.

Get out of the comfort zone and LISTEN to what others say rather than prejudging and assuming what they think.

chomalungma · 15/12/2019 21:26

You also need a free press to report it

This.

Interviewers who aren't afraid to call out lies.
To fact check.
Unfortunately, we live in a soundbite, twitter led, newspaper headline world.

I think that people on the ground will need to see the reality of their local area and see what happens over the next 5 years and that will affect how they vote next time.

RedToothBrush · 15/12/2019 21:29

Nick Cohen? Nah I'll pass

And there you have it.

Dismissive
Prejudging
Close minded

You should listen to all your political allies and opponents. Especially your opponents.

They tell you things about you, you didn't realise or notice.

Bearbehind · 15/12/2019 21:30

You have to communicate beyond your own bubble without judging them as being worthy, ideologically pure and good enough for your party. Which is what has happened in the last couple of years.

Get out of the comfort zone and LISTEN to what others say rather than prejudging and assuming what they think.

This

Oakenbeach · 15/12/2019 21:31

It’s only an inflationary rise in reality, it doesn’t need huge funding. It’s just being well spun.

The Tory manifesto investment into the NHS was equivalent to inflation + 3.4%.... In real terms more is being spent than under the last Labour Government.... Of course, demand has risen significantly over this time as the population rises and there are more elderly people, so the NHS is under massive pressure.

Labour planned to increase funding by inflation + 3.8%, so more, but not dramatically more.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 15/12/2019 21:32

The key decision makers now will be the Tories. In the 80s the Tories ravaged the north but the rest of the country voted them back in. Brexit will ravage deprived areas north and south so let's see how the electorate feels about that in 5 years. Regardless of who becomes Labour leader in the short term it isn't going to make a difference to how this plays out.

Peregrina · 15/12/2019 21:34

The thing is, Listening, unless there is a credible alternative to Johnson, there is no-one to oppose him. Or to vote for in 5 years' time.

Much the same could be said in 1992 when Major won. Although his majority was much less it was still a working majority. Within a couple of years the Labour position had begun to change dramatically. Who is to say that this can't happen again? IMO Labour still has decent people left, but the Tories have chased out most decent ones and the leadership are morally bankrupt.

thecatfromjapan · 15/12/2019 21:34

It's going to make a vast difference, GhostofFrankGrimes.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 15/12/2019 21:35

They tell you things about you, you didn't realise or notice.

Im aware of that ffs, I cant stand Cohen or the Graun, they have done nothing but criticise Corbyn for the last four years and for the next 5 they will cry, gnash their teeth and rend their clothes at the injustices of a Tory government because the editorial line is DO NOT question neo liberalism although they will throw in the occasional lefty.

My Cohen comment was also I cant stand his writing style and my vote for whoever will be the next leader will be done for my conscience and remember everyone please I dont get to vote more than once so no point piling on me because I dont want my fellow humans to suffer not even in the short term

thecatfromjapan · 15/12/2019 21:36

It took 3 Leaders to get from Foot to Blair, Peregrina.

And many Conservative wins, and a hell of a lot of pain for the most vulnerable.

It really, really matters for vulnerable people as to whether Labour start that process now, or after another GE defeat.

chatongris · 15/12/2019 21:36

I agree Ghost.

I do think it changes things that many of the constituencies likely to be worst affected by Brexit are now represented by Tories.

thecatfromjapan · 15/12/2019 21:37

But ... Just, Corbyn has just delivered us the worst electoral defeat in over 80 years.

Do you not think the criticism might have had a point?

chomalungma · 15/12/2019 21:38

The Tory manifesto investment into the NHS was equivalent to inflation + 3.4

Really?

fullfact.org/election-2019/nhs-spending-biggest-boost/

We can also look at the percentage increase in spending each year between 2018/19 and 2023/24 and compare that to historical trends. Looked at this way the increase is set to be around 3.3% per year according to the Health Foundation. That’s above the average annual increases over the last decade, but below the historic average of 3.7% per year since the NHS was founded

So nothing to get excited about - just doing what other Governments have been doing but not as much as average.

Oh - and it's still less than the biggest real cash increase.

But we had those arguments before the election. It made no difference.

Random18 · 15/12/2019 21:39

Who has really been the opposition in the last couple if years?

SNP have held Tories to account more than Labour

That must have played a factor in people's votes.

Just I'm not in your position so things are easier for me. I don't think many voters have actually voted to make you poorer. But Labour did not convince.

People do need to own their shit if they voted Tory. But really what were Labour offering?

2nd referendum pledge was not the thing that made people not.vote Labour.

If JC had actually sold the case for 2nd referendum and been fully supportive of it months before then it may have been different.

If JC and his circle had not played party politics with the indicitave votes then things may have been different.

LD's / Change may have questions to answer. But indon't care for them, they are not who I vote for normally. I do care about Labour party

thecatfromjapan · 15/12/2019 21:39

It's like your mum telling you not to go out without a coat.

Then deciding never to listen to her again because you went out, it was cold - so it has to be her fault, right, because she was criticising your coat.

CendrillonSings · 15/12/2019 21:39

Regardless of who becomes Labour leader in the short term it isn't going to make a difference to how this plays out.

Ipsos Mori polling data going back to 1977 indicates that no single factor is more important in deciding elections than the leadership ratings of the party leaders.

Coincidentally, Jeremy Corbyn had the lowest ratings ever recorded in the series...

Violetparis · 15/12/2019 21:39

Cat I read that any Labour leadership candidate needs to have 21 MPs to support them. Do you think there are this many Labour MPs who would support a Corbyn/McDonnell endorsed candidate ?

GhostofFrankGrimes · 15/12/2019 21:39

It really wont cat. When Milliband became Labour leader he was largely ignored by the press. I remember thinking he was the invisible man. Then the election came and he was character assassinated by the press.

If the next Labour leader is considered competent they'll be ignored, if considered weak the character assassination will start early. Holding the brexiteers to account hasn't worked for 3 years because leavers think it is all project fear. Brexit and the Tories will have to die on their own sword.

What is more likely to happen is the EU will get the blame for brexit not being a success and the victimisation and anger will kick in.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 15/12/2019 21:40

Do you not think the criticism might have had a point?

Have I indicated otherwise?

Bearbehind · 15/12/2019 21:41

Have I indicated otherwise?

Yes - with every single post you make

RedToothBrush · 15/12/2019 21:41

C and ping from another thread.

I think this is a well written opinion :

Today 21:32 packingsoapandwater

I'm Northern, I live in an ex-mill town in a Labour region (Labour MPs and Labour councils), and I've been involved in politics for twenty years.

The real rot started under Blair. We had high hopes for Blair, foolishly believing that we might see investment and change in post-industrial areas of recividist unemployment. We saw nothing of the sort. After devolution failed with the NW vote, nothing else happened. Instead, what we got was extraordinary levels of immigration into areas that neither had the housing stock nor the jobs nor the capacity to cope with it.

For example, back in the early noughties, there was a significant issue with British youths being able to qualify as tradesmen because the NVQ route required an apprenticeship. Nothing was done to correct this issue; instead, the Labour government dealt with shortages by importing EU tradesmen. Traditional Labour voters noticed this because it was their sons unable to qualify.

Incidentally, it was also around the time of EU expansion that Labour ditched the requirement for a foreign language at GCSE. I have always felt this was an almost malevolent move designed to hobble British working class youth in the face of freedom of movement. Where could they go and work in Europe? They had NO foreign language skills.

Then came Brown and bigotgate. It became clear then that Labour had no empathy with the situation that many working class Northerners found themselves in. They were just "bigots" and "racists", regardless of the fact that the only thing some of these communities had were the fact they were communities with a shared history and language, and were all in the same boat. Mass immigration took that away from a lot of areas.

The racism charge was also beyond ridiculous, considering that many post-industrial areas had settled postwar immigrant communities and a significantly higher proportion of mixed marriages than you find among the southern middle-classes.

But then the liberal elite had form for that. The Parekh report even had the audacity to tell white working class mothers they were racist to their own beloved mixed-race children, ffs.

Add to that, the decades of Labour council governance and the Blair and Brown years, which delivered very little to Northern areas. Demographic pressures were ignored. Infrastructure overcapacity was ignored. There are areas in my region that have a worse public transport infrastructure than they had in the 1880s. House prices went through the roof in areas where most people lived on NMW. Meanwhile, everything just got shitter and shitter. Towns that were pleasant in the 90s turned into shitholes. And then Labour local councils sat back and let young girls lives be ruined because they were scared to challenge metropolitan narratives about multicultural Britain.

No one stood up for the Northern working class.

Then came Brexit. For the first time in a long time, Northerners in traditional Labour areas got the chance to register their anger against the political classes without having to vote Tory. This is THE important point here. That is what the referendum gave Northern working class areas: the chance to register their anger without making the move to the Conservatives, which would change how they had to think about themselves.

And Labour blew it. Along with the LibDems and the establishment, it basically turned around and called these voters scum. That was the nail in the coffin for the traditional Northern Labour vote. Why vote for someone that hates you? That blatantly disregards your opinion? That calls you stupid? And the Brexit reaction made clear something they had suspected for a long time: Labour loathed them.

Even for Northern remainers, it was a shock. Labour was calling people who were their neighbours, friends, family members and co-workers "scum" for voting to leave the EU, and doing it in such a way that the accusation spread to all Northerners.

But Boris, well, Boris acted like Northerners' opinions on Brexit were worth something. He made an effort, unlike Corbyn. So, as Labour didn't want those voters and had made it clear, he got their votes for the first time in a very long time. After all, those voters had nothing left to lose.

And here we are. A Tory landslide.

Ironically Cohen has been one of the few leftist voices who has been consistent in his argument for the left to be self critical and self aware. He was ignored at Labour's peril...