Westminstenders: 10 day count down

[RedToothBrush]

10 days to go...

... Wake me up when the shit show is over.

Just thanks for that, it cheered me up a bit! Certainly on the deaths/voter registration point I think Labour should have a bump. But will it be enough?
Laura K on Today this morning was saying that Tories really are a bit worried about getting in to hung parliament territory (not just pretending to garner more shy Tory votes). Can't say I believe her either though tbh.

Could our resident statisticians please have a look at this I dont know enough to know if this is bollocks or not

Do you think that political scientists and applied mathematicians working for large polling companies have maybe, just maybe, considered some of these rather basic issues with polling?

It's fairly easy to work out why polling might be wrong. It's much harder to work out what to do about it, how to make your polling better.

The large spread of poll results is partly because different companies take different approaches to the problems of sampling and weighting.

It's not impossible that they have all got it horribly wrong but I wouldn't be pinning any hopes on it. Much better to work on getting people to vote tactically and to turn out.

Johnson must be thinking "what the hell am I going to do with 5 years in power?"

I think he’s probably shitting himself because he’s fucked either way.

mobile.twitter.com/Millar_Colin/status/1201581431371247616?s=08

Surely the ergers will be fed up when they get what they want with leaving the eu then all the hard, dirty work that follows has to be done. What do you do when you fulfil your only dream? Being pm? Leaving the eu? There's reasons why stories stop before the "happy ever after"

Also on the subject of polling. Errors won't necessarily favour Labour.

Based on national data, IIRC the YouGov MRP poll had the Tories up about 5% in Grimsby (key marginal) ... constituency polling puts them at around +15%

7 days to go till the Exit poll.

How reliable are they normally?

Here you go @chomalungma

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/exit-polls-accuracy-election/

This is very good: an organised list of racist, sexist and otherwise vile Boris quotes, organised by category. (Link is kosher but if you're worried about clicking on a random google drive link I've also provided a twitter link)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1XzAujyzN9JxpUl9rN7EIIX0AlgaXL8rE/view

https://twitter.com/ukdomainn_names/status/1201495658689024000?s=21

I think the other thing that the pollsters (even all the reputable ones ) is extracting the "Don't know/won't say" percentages, before producing the "headline" percentages.

And as I understand it, the "Don't know/won't say" proportionally is unusually high - with a high proportion of women in amongst that figure.

That all contributes to a highly volatile situation - so it really is all to play for.

I think it was basilpots who was good at looking at the data sets to extract the bigger picture.

And as DGR (amongst others) often reminds us - remember who is paying for these polls. They all have their own vested interests.

Getting the vote out on next Thursday will be key. The weather may well have an impact - and unusually on this occasion, with a winter election, it is the Conservatives who could suffer. Shaaame But there again, many of them may have already voted via a postal vote.

This is very good: an organised list of racist, sexist and otherwise vile Boris quotes, organised by category

The thing is though - like Trump - there are many people who don't care what he's said or done.

I don't know what lessons have been learnt from the election of Trump but no matter how many awful things he does, his base still thinks he's great. I suspect the same is true for the Conservatives under Johnson.

How do you beat that?

How reliable are they normally?

Very.

As in very very.

To go with GreyKitten's link.

Peter Oborne's compendium of Boris Johnson's lies:

t.co/vocljriOsH?amp=1

And as I understand it, the "Don't know/won't say" proportionally is unusually high - with a high proportion of women in amongst that fi

That is true.

If they published the true figures, would that encourage Conservative voters out because the polls are much closer

Or does that encourage people to vote Conservative so to be part of 'the norm'?

Thinking ahead to 7 days and the following 24 (+) hours. I'm sure they'll be lots of friendly ploppers coming on here assuming there's a Tory majority, gloating and goading. So that's something to look forward to. Just still don't understand why they'll bother. I'd just be happy with my and the countries work, job done, celebrating all round.

Maybe that's what football supporters do? Spurs supporters after they beat Arsenal? United supporters when they bear Liverpool?

I won’t care. I’ll be in bed with a bottle of gin if there’s a Tory win.

My parents have had a knack of having election night parties to celebrate what they thought was going to be a Labour victory. I well remember my hand shaking as I tried to pour out drinks to newly arrived guests as the exit poll was announced when Kinnock lost in 1992. Talking about having to drown your sorrows! 🙄

It's the slow reveal though Also, when you're kidding yourself that the exit polls will be wrong.

I'm watching a rerun of a Big Fat Quiz. Jimmy Carr just said 'people are amazing - so much so I'm going to ask Geppetto to turn me into one' ... unfortunately for Jimmy he will find that that joke requires a level of literary understanding the great British public don't necessarily have

Well this is a good look

Rosie Clarke
@Rknepper_
· 1h
Conservative candidate Sally Ann Heart defending her view that Disabled people / those with learning disabilities should be paid less as they ‘Don’t understand money’! Actually unbelievable. Audience do not agree... #GeneralElection19 #tory #jc4pm
Show this thread

twitter.com/i/status/1202686219546742793

That's like a left wing parody of a Tory candidate!

That’s one less Tory seat then. Amber Rudd only just scraped it there.

I'll never forget living in Brixton in 1992 in a street of flats.

All along the road, people were having election night parties.

Slowly, initial sounds of jollity were replaced by a sound that could only be that of despair.

It was quite something.

Disabled people should get less money? WTF?!! Maybe they actually need more money because along with everything else they need, they also need to pay for people to support them and help them.

The Tories are vile inhuman despicable bastards.

Dear God please don't let them get a majority next week.