Westminstenders: 10 day count down

[RedToothBrush]

10 days to go...

... Wake me up when the shit show is over.

In one respect, it's likely to be a Win:Win for the Indy movement in Scotland - but not for the UK.

A Conservative majority: riding roughshod over the will of Scotland and yet more evidence that the "Union" doesn't work for Scotland. Plus Brexit (especially a No Deal Brexit) impacts particularly badly for Scotland - so will increase the resentment towards WM in particular and the "Union" in general.

I'm sure a lot of preparatory work has been done on "Plan B" by the SNP: using every irritating but legal procedure in Erskine May to be as irritating and obstructive in Parliament (in the way that Parnell did c100 years ago); piling on the international pressure regarding the democratic deficit (especially given the "power grab" of devolved powers that is already on the statute book), perhaps via the Council of Europe (under whose auspices the ECHR operates), but also via the soft and not-so-soft channels (ds thinks that other leaders making fun of BJ would hurt him ); maybe even a challenge in the ECHR (what would be helpful there would be if the Conservatives only came 3rd in Scotland).

A Hung Parliament: given that no other party will work with the Conservatives, then there will be, depending on numbers, some sort of C&S arrangement with Labour - which will either result in a Labour minority government, which includes a commitment to Indyref2 or a very short-lived government which either agrees to a PV or collapses very quickly and leaves us staring at No Deal on 31st January.

Stephen Buranyi
@stephenburanyi
·
Dec 4
Got a Lib Dem mailer in the post today with a bar chart claiming that I don't live in a safe seat and that they CAN win here

In Islington North

Islington North?

Angela Rayners response to that earlier tweet

Angela Rayner 🌈
@AngelaRayner
·
6h
The classic sickening Tory stereotyping and prejudice l have fought against all my life. The Tories claim to support aspiration but they sneer and look down their noses at working class people, sheer arrogance, snobbery and entitlement shining through, they cannot help themselves

I honestly don't think I can face this time next week .

Will next week be the start of the break up of the Union?

As for Tory majority:/
Trying to see if there's a way I can "come to terms" with it happening but can't see how.

DS (who predicted correctly referendum result and Trump victory) now saying thinks it will be "comfortable Conservative majority". Ah! What does he know?!

Before you all condemn Sally Ann Heart as some kind of Nazi monster, please read this article...

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.spectator.co.uk/2017/03/the-minimum-wage-denies-my-daughter-the-dignity-of-a-paid-job/amp/

The voters of Hastings won’t read a Spectator article. She’s just committed political suicide.

@RedToothBrush

Exit polls aren’t always accurate.... 2015 predicted a hung parliament instead of a Tory win, and 1992 was out by 70 seats or so (though things have generally improved a lot since then).

Thanks for posting that Oakenbeach. On first look, I find the title of that article troubling. It seems a simplistic assumption. Both my dc have some sen needs. But it's easy to infer from that headline that that less the minimum wage for all with learning difficulties. Granted it could be the fault of the sub editor.

twitter.com/doubledownnews/status/1202666350637924352

The longer video linked is worth’s watch too.

for squid and cat. Lemon and honey and cloves in hot water, cat. Like hot whiskey without the whiskey. Leclerc hope you're well.

Thanks oakenbeach I was going to say something similar.
I worked for Mencap for a good few years and the minimum wage debate is more complicated than it might at first appear.
It isn't one with easy answers maybe but not much coming up has easy answers.
On the one hand people with significant learning disabilities benefit hugely from work and a personal income but often couldn't be appointed in an open interview process; on the other all people should be valued equally and paid in parity.

As for Tory majority:
Trying to see if there's a way I can "come to terms" with it happening but can't see how.

Tobe- whilst I believe in fighting until just before this time next week. I think at least a small majority is probably inevitable.

The article I posted yesterday and Seeing it as part of a global shift actually helps you come to terms with it.

I listened to a radio Kent phone in yesterday. I didn't know the presenter but he was asking people to ring in and explain why is the Johnson deal better than the May deal. People were confident to ring up with their opinion. However none of the callers knew the difference between the WA and the long term trade deal. Also none knew that the full 87 pages of the WA were publicly available. No one knew about or cared about the difference with the back stop. As for the effect on NI one caller whilst passionately in favour of Brexit (as going to be great) was completely unaware of how Scotland and NI voted and indifferent to the effect on NI but interestingly did want Scotland to stay together.

The callers who got their 'info' from the usual newspapers reflect millions across the country. Similar factors apply in the US. It's a ( depressing) global phenomenon.

After the victory I'm going to come to terms with it - by embracing some of the new Tory dream. This means more emphasis on putting me and my family and our survival first. Yes I will donate to food banks and charity if I can. But if we are to have a more dominant ERG survival of the fittest ethos then my DC will be the fittest. They will be able to afford private healthcare somehow.This whole debacle has produced this shift in me. It's sadly an - if you can't beat their philosophy - well join 'em. Not voting for the Tory/ERG obviously .But three years of seeing and listening to those voters (who are worst affected) like my FIL still banging the Brexit ToryERG drum has hardened my soul.
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https://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/jun/05/why-working-class-people-vote-conservative

The Remploy factories set up to provide work for people with disabilities, were, of course, cut by the Tories.

One of our DC has SEN. I willl future proof her from the shifted Tory philosophy somehow. Fuck them. I can beat them!

As a teacher, I am not particularly convinced by either Gavin Williamson or Angela Rayner...one of these days we'll get an ed sec who actually knows about education. That said, Nadine Dorries was once a nurse and, Lord knows, no one wants her as health sec!!

On the face of it I would be all for a ed sec who ahs actually been a school governor and is state educated but the my wife was a teacher, you know is ridiculous. And every teacher wants a fuller explanation of was, frankly!

So, on balance, Angela at least has morals and a bit of fire in her belly.

This whole debacle has produced this shift in me. It's sadly an - if you can't beat their philosophy - well join 'em.

I understand and will probably end up doing the same on a practical day-to-day basis as what else can we do? I want my kids to have the best education and healthcare too, but i can't embrace their philosophy. That would let them have a victory over me, personally. I don't want my soul to be hardened. What's wrong today will still be wrong tomorrow.

This is going to be worse than 92, I think. I don't see anything but a Tory victory. The Labour surge just hasn't happened.

I don't want my soul to be hardened. What's wrong today will still be wrong tomorrow.

I didn't want my soul to be hardened either - but the last three years have done some of that. I'll still fight but I think I now have doubts about who I'm fighting to help.

I'll always oppose the IDSs and JRMs of this world but I always knew what they were like and actually they haven't affected by response.

What has hardened my soul is what the last years have revealed about who you want to help. Is it elderly people - what like my Faragist FIL reliant on the NHS? Or is it two elderly aunt type people up North, both lonely one having had the hardest of lives losing her only son, reliant on sheltered social housing -both of whom worship at the Faragist altar? Is it the food bank user on the John Harris visit to Guildford who is voting Tory? Is it my friend's 'Christian Left wing' mother who has an adopted mixed race grandchild -who is Brexit obsessed to keep foreigners out? Is it the Mum reliant on a struggling state schools to educate her three kids who votes Tory because Brexit's great. After a while it can't help but make you think if that's what you want- why am I bothering.

lonelyplanetmum

I get what you mean My overwhelming feeling is 'fine, DH and I will work harder, have less money/spare time, but the DC will be fine.'

And sadly the rich-poor gap/lack of equality of opportunity is just going to get worse and worse...because we have that little bit of spare money that is now used for the occassional takeaway that could go towards DC clubs, and both of are usually at home in the evening so one of us could join the PTA....

But lots of families have no more to give, time,energy, or moneywise.

Because the kind of society we live in influences our quality of life. Ultimately you can't help people who don't want to be helped but out of self interest you shouldn't give up your values because maybe at some point in the future there's a chance they might prevail again. That keeps me going.

I don't see anything but a Tory victory. The Labour surge just hasn't happened

If so, then the Tories can own it. They can own the fuck up that Brexit will be. They can own the economic disruption. Then in 5 years time, they can come begging to the electorate to give them 1 more chance - and they will still probably blame the Labour party.

They will have lost the vote of many Remainers and they will have fucked up in the Brexit voting Labour heartlands.

And as a family we are absolutely working at full capacity... can't see where extra energy or resourcefulness will come from....

Then in 5 years time, they can come begging to the electorate to give them 1 more chance - and they will still probably blame the Labour party.

Not if their end game was really to yank the UK away from Europe (as per instructions). In that case they will think job done and f off into the sunset- like Farage.
The mess of the aftermath will need to be sorted out by others.