Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

This is such an important election for us all. Surely Labour cannot think it’s going well or am I missing something here?

Well, you've been following these threads, so you'll have read plenty about the odds that are stacked against them, within and without the PLP.

Here, have a

According to the polls it's not going well for Labour. Maybe they are getting different vibes on the campaign trail?

HoneyandSpice

That was an interesting Question Time. My view of Lionel Shriver has changed.

At the last election we constantly heard about people wouldn't vote for Corbyn, on and on they went, and yet he increased the number of seats he held, and denied May her majority.

I get the impression that the things are patchy for Labour - doing OK in some seats, but not well in others.

Lionel Shriver is a total nonentity with nothing to say. I never understand why the BBC keeps trying to shove her onto us

Sorry I'm asking about tv I haven't watched again , but what did Lionel Shriver day?

Say obviously not day

She bizarrely tried to defend Johnson's 'letterbox' description of Muslim women. Thankfully there were two feisty Muslim women in the audience who wouldn't let her get away with it.

I turned it off before the end. Her first remark, in answer to a question about the NHS being 'for sale' was, 'no one would want to buy it'.

She is massively ignorant and self-important

Ooh dear.

www.ctctogether.org/about-deep-canvassing

Some tips on how to get people talking and to have effective conversations when canvassing.

Lucky for her she was on with Brandon Lewis who was so monumentally moronic it overshadowed her stupidity. Caroline Lucas was excellent

The Conservatives are set to win 359 seats according to a new poll, giving Boris Johnson an overall majority of 68.

Can somebody explain where the overall majority
of '68' comes from please?

Caroline Lucas was great.

Brandon Lewis was laughed at, rightly so.

Can somebody explain where the overall majority
of '68' comes from please?

It's very confusing maths - because to me I would count the majority as every seat added on from 326 which it takes to get an overall majority, which would be a majority of 33.

But what they've done here is 650 (total seats) minus 359 (tory seats) = 291 opposition seats. And the difference between 359 and 291 is 68.

so they have 68 seats more than the opposition total.

Shriver was awful beyond words, the favourite description on Twitter is nasty piece of work. She has absolutely no understanding of British politics. The penultimate QT before the election and they wasted a place on that.

Thanks Pretzels. I always thought an 'overall' majority was the divide by 2 and then the surplus as opposed to a simple majority where one number is that many bigger than the next biggest. RTÉ are reporting it as a majority rather than an overall majority, as I think in Ireland we do the divide by 2 and it's the amount you're above half is the majority. Nobody gets overall majorities here.

34 seats. Less scary than 68. Of course if Sinn Féin have 5 that gives the Tories a larger majority effectively.

What a bonfire of regulations gets you after a FTA with the US, less H&S, more profit.

Shock horror unions give Labour money AGAIN! If true.
How do you boost a war horse? What is one?
I thought that link about BJ never telling lies would be to the Mash or a similar satirical organ but I see it’s to a mainstream news site. Wot times we live in Mrs Gamp.

I must add, the only UK news outlet I saw that footage on was RT, but I didn't link to their (identical) video for fear of being accused of peddling fake news.

www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/health/your-guide-to-going-into-hospital-when-the-americans-have-bought-it-20191128191199