Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

I'm offering prayers to all the deities that you are correct, Pretzels

It's OK Cat - I always am

According to the spectator article I published upthread...the same strategy worked on the Johnson leadership campaign.

Crosby ran this too with Carrie Symonds. In the last two Tory general elections he insisted David Cameron because there is no upside.

"For frontrunners, especially, if the debate goes well, there is no real uptick in support. The only way a TV debate can influence an election is if a candidate has a massive gaffe, a viral FAIL that destroys his or her credibility. So best shunned. "

Its contemptible and yet it does make sense..and it can look.. well sort of premier like to be above the bickering going on beneath.

thank you derxa from pages back, all my animals (currently 3 cats 1 dog and soon to be 8 more chooks) are rescues... in this horrible world, it's kind of a good thing to do I think, and it makes me feel better somehow.

Missed all of tonight's debate, think I cba to watch now having read all the usual highly informative posts on here!

I am sooo bad at missing stuff out or typos- sorry.

I was trying to say the last two Tory general elections Crosby was advising and insisted David Cameron and Teresa May both avoided or minimised participation in debates , because there is no upside for the front runner to participate and everything to lose.

I guess they must have access to trends in polls etc before and after debates and as a result know its a risk not worth taking. I remember TM debate ducking but didn't know that Cameron did it too.

HoneyandSpice

Here's something that gladdened my old nursey heart - Johnson trying out his famous bumbling, blustering charm on a bunch of nurses

twitter.com/ladyhaja/status/1199776018682327041?s=21

Totally agree with you Cat. I'm thinking of the term Dominators. 🤔

There are some good replies to that Cleverly response to the Ch4 news editor:

It’s a leaders’ debate for leaders. Is that too complicated for you Mr. Walking Evidence That Nominative Determinism Isn’t Actually A Thing.

He's 55 and he sent his dad James. If I did that at work, well I cant imagine what would happen, I'd be a laughing stock.

James.....James.....you actually wrote "other party leaders" in your sarky tweet....I don't know if you didn't read before sending or you did read but didn't understand

"someone" ... "leaders"... Come on James, take it slowly now... you can do it.

I agree with you Cat - environment I don't think matters to key traditional Tories. He is also in bed with the worlds loudest climate change denier (Trump) - isn't there mention in the NHS document to the uk not supporting climate change /carbon reducing initiatives? I am sure I read that somewhere.......

I though JS did much better in this debate. NS and the Plaid leader we're standouts. The Green joint-leader was obviously passionate - but not as clear and aspirational as the other 3.
JC started well - but did walk into a couple of huge howlers - esp the one on Nuclear power - but also on nationalising the gas grid......

But everyone will have taken different things from it.

DP watched debate half asleep his take:

• big thumbs up for JC knowing the detail of his manifesto as if he actually gave a shit

-JS was sad because she wasn't sure her 5 yr old had seen a hedgehog

• NS is practically the PM of Scotland and should be treated so

-Welsh party leader seemed nice and why can't English politicans be like that -Green leader was as you would expect.

Ds' comment is that Jo Swinson is a teacher who goes out her way to be your friend but is just cringey.

As a young person, he's very concerned that not enough us being done quickly enough to avoid the damage to the planet that he needs to live on.

His final comments were "How to fix climate change. Vote for any party that showed up for this."

He did however then WhatApp me this

Hazard that's a great summary.

Well it just shows the bias on this thread that JC can have his arse handed to him three times - but he did really well apparently.

The left are never going to win elections if they can't acknowledge the faults in there leaders and the huge weaknesses in their policies.

1/ nuclear power
2/nationalising a gas grid - that trades in fossil fuels and should be renewed out of the network.
3/ printing a big shiny booklet

Jeez.....

Ohhh the irony!!!

@bbcnewspr

Complains about damages to perceptions of their cough 'impartiality'

twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/1200121657337225216?s=19

Maybe they should cc Laura K in on that one!

Some great replies on the thread though :)

I watched it, and am still recovering from the poor darling koala incident.
The rest wasn't great.
Johnson and Farage not turning up was a good tactical decision.
The right wing tabloids have lots to play with now.
They are about £££ not principles.

Oh god yes, and the proffering of the booklet.
Palm meet forehead

Since bj only has one message, I guess he couldn't go to the debate coz how do you sandwich "Get Brexit done!" inbetween "Actually a 2 degree rise is terrible" or "Yes a warmer & wetter climate will cause more flooding & we mustn't risk that" GBd doesn't really go with science, does it?

I am gonna be so disappointed in Britain when (if?) the Tories get a solid majority. Pfffft. I need a new hobby (not politics).

Maybe we will move on from "Get Brexit Done" to "Get the Climate Done."

I can't believe Daddy turned up in his place tonight. Did he bring a note?

We need a head banging emoji.

People are now begging Labour and the LibDems to work together against Johnson.

I think on the ground, they are. It's not just 'get LibDems to stand down in Labour target seats' which is too late now anyway. It's a question of some moderate Tories will vote LibDem when they would never vote Labour in a million years and then 'accidentally' let Labour in, (shock horror. ) And who many like me, think that Corbyn won't be around all that much longer, so it might not be a bad tactic?

Just catching up on my news apps. I see the bbc coverage of the channel 4 debate included a photo of the 5 leaders who were there, together and then each individually. They said that Farage and Johnson were representing by melting ice sculptures. But aibu to think the bbc report could have included photos of said ice sculptures? A picture says a thousand words and all that?

This would be amusing if it weren't for the fact that this at best self deluded liar specimen may well win a full 5 year term as PM

[[https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2019-boris-johnson-says-he-has-never-told-a-lie-during-his-political-career-1327509?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=ijp

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2019-boris-johnson-says-he-has-never-told-a-lie-during-his-political-career-1327509?utmsource=fb&utmmedium=fb&utm_campaign=ijp

Does anyone think Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott will be in post in the next 6 months?

Surely someone is thinking this just isn’t working? How many seats do they need to lose?

The trouble is he lies so often he doesn't know he's doing it. He wouldn't know the truth if it bit him on the arse.

He is totally unfit for high office. FGS people of Uxbridge vote him out.

Starmer, Cooper the more moderates. They have been very quiet, it’s almost like they don’t want to be associated with Labour in its current form

They haven't lost any yet.