Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

Deepest ,deepest sympathies to honeyandspice

Have Johnson and Farage melted yet?

A comforting cat cuddle for all who need it.

Here

And to @pointythings Thanks for the

With this not turning up thing. Johnson is emulating what May did - (remember her)? TM chose not to show up to any debates either and limited restricted press conferences. On one occasion she sent Amber Rudd on her behalf. So Johnson is closely emulating a tried and tested strategy...Did TM do better than she would otherwise have done as a result of not appearing? There must be some evidence that this strategy works in order to repeat it like this?

DGR Thought Johnson and Kuenssberg was very funny and on point.

The conservatives were so outraged that a man who wasn't the leader of the conservative party was not allowed to take part in the leader's debate that Michael Gove spent the hour answering questions on facebook.

I hope every single question asked was "why was Boris too chicken to attend the debate?" with an occasional "what exactly was he doing tonight that was more important than discussing the future of our entire planet?" thrown in for good measure.

According to this it's Lynton Crosby's strategy..

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/boris-should-ignore-lynton-crosbys-debate-ducking-advice/

OMG @tobee and @lonelyplanetmum I so didn't mean to derail the thread. And I am so totally taken aback at the responses. I didn't post to get get sympathy. I guess I posted to show how much we needed to show empathy to each other. Now, more than at any other time. I've felt for @squid4 mostly in these threads. But thank you all. You have restored my faith in humanity. Thank you ❤

I strongly suspect that another - major - reason Johnson didn't turn up is because Green issues are despised by his core vote.

It's just a hunch but I suspect a lot of older, authoritarian types, think Green issues are 'metropolitan' and stuff that silly young people get their knickers in a twist about.

And they experience the demands of Green activists (cut down on plastic bags; recycle) as an infringement of their personal liberty.

And, I'll bet if you dug really deep, they think it's effeminate and emasculating.

It's just a hunch .... but I wonder.

His non-appearance will be read as contempt, or not taking it seriously. And I suspect a lot of his core will love that.

We know, HoneyandSpice. Doesn't mean we shouldn't give you a bit of live, though.

You have pretty much all made me think, in the last few months. You've engaged me (even though I've had a lifelong interest in politics) and without (the occasional) exception, you have made me question myself. So many influential and eloquent posters here. All of whom have lives, families, Hopes and fears. I do hope we can pull together come what may.

Just in case we thought we're the only ones with venal politicians in hock to tax-dodging multinationals:

www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/28/12-eu-states-reject-move-to-expose-companies-tax-avoidance

Sian Berry - had the authority on the subject that you'd expect from a Green Party leader, and could easily have set and lead the agenda; she did admit, however, that while the Green Party have long-established expertise in debating and strategising about carbon emissions and climate change, they haven't been as hot on biodiversity crises.

Plaid Cymru guy - enthusiastic and convincing about the party's recognition of issues involved, and their passion to do something about it if in power.

Nicola Sturgeon - as she herself reminded Krishnan and the panel, she's the only actual leader of government currently, and she pretty convincingly listed various active and developing SNP green policies, while recognising areas of the debate they need to address more concretely.

Jeremy Corbyn - came across as tired and a bit grouchy but managed to affirm various aspects of relevant Labour policy and of course bigged up their plans for a Green Industrial Revolution and how nationalisation to some extent connects up with green issues. Was taken to task over Labour's more distant emissions target date of 2045 (ie. the Greens have the closest target date, and some of the others are more ambitious in that respect than Corbyn's manifesto.) Slightly cringey moment when Corbyn waved a hard copy of the relevant Labour green policy and Krishnan and Sian Berry chuckled that it would've been more environmentally friendly just to read it online.

Jo Swinson - can't really remember, but she waved her arms about a fair bit and said "y'know" a lot, as per.

His non-appearance will be read as contempt, or not taking it seriously. And I suspect a lot of his core will love that.

oh yes his core vote will be lapping it up and they will be 'outraged' - 'outraged' I tell you - at the other leaders turning down Gove's kind offer.

But elections aren't won on the core voters - they're won on the undecideds, the waverers and the floating voters. And this will be playing badly to them.

Hoping this posts, have tried multiple times on the app

I thought Labour were committed to a 2030 date? I thought 2045 was the lib dem target?

If people don't see the contempt Johnson has for them that he can't even be arsed to turn up and yet they still vote for him, well, the mind boggles. If I live to be a hundred I will never understand it. Do they have no self respect?

I'm offering prayers to all the deities that you are correct, Pretzels.

@Icantreachthepretzels you may well be right, I was just trying to plug a gap in the thread at that point and freely admit I didn't remember much of the detail! But there was something about target dates that Labour looked a bit out of step on, and Corbyn was challenged on it.

Sorry everyone, next time I'll take notes

@NoMoreMonkeysJumpingOnTheBed Agree with you 100%

No one knew what they were voting for in the referendum, including the leave and the remain camps. The only sensible and democratic thing to do is have another one, know we all have some small idea of what it would entail.

I think they all should be neutral on this, we don't need to know their personal opinion, it would influence voters, when the only influence should be facts, not personalities. They are employed to do the will of the electorate, not push their own personal agenda.

Re tonight's debate, George Monbiot thinks Corbyn did a lot better than Sturgeon from the policy point of view, and better than Swinson in terms of knowing and understanding the detail of his own manifesto.

Disclaimer: haven't had a chance to watch it yet.

Replying to
@bendepear
,
@realDonaldTrump
and
@BorisJohnson
I just want to check the facts here.

We sent someone to represent the
@Conservatives
but you allowed the other party leaders to veto their inclusion in the debate?

During the regulated General Election period?

===== tweet by James Cleverly.

They are so desperate! Do they not understand that we all understand that refusing someone who isn't the leader of the party a place in a leader's debate is perfectly acceptable? And that their faux indignation cuts no mustard?
The contempt they show for our intelligence is staggering.
... or it would be if it wasn't the tories.

@KeithPartridge

'Do they have no self respect?'

Now that is very interesting.

I have a suspicion that many of the authoritarian voters in Johnson's base have very fragile egos. The authoritarianism and othering/belittling comes from a sense of fragility, failure, disempowerment, being sidelined, and terror of imminent powerlessness.

What an interesting line of attack that might be.

Oh and I watched it on the internet and tried to pause it just before the fact-checking bit towards the end, but the C4 player is so shite I couldn't unpause it but had to go right back to the beginning, with no option then to fast forward. So I missed the fact check and the conclusion.

I shan't give up my day job