Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

About bloody time, frankly. Our conservative candidate needs to step up and speak out too.

@JoannaObrien
Have any of you actually been in a Union I have it was a closed shop so I had no choice. We were forced to strike and I didn't get paid for months. The Union did give us some money but not enough. Some Unions help people but they didn't help me.

I once worked in a non-union hotel. I was a salaried (but actually minimum wage) employee who could be scheduled at will - including working ten days straight, and from 7-6 daily if told to, with no overtime (because salaried) - and thanks to labour laws where the hotel was, I could be fired at will too. One week holiday per year, no public holidays off (because hotel).

How would you like that?

Do you enjoy having the odd weekend off work occasionally?
A break for lunch?
Do you get Christmas Day off?
Do you have the right to maternity leave?
Paid sick days?
Does your employer employ children, at lower rates than adults?

The middle class was built from family-supporting union jobs. Not from tax cuts, and definitely not from the benevolence of employers or capital.

I've had Green, Labour and Libdem leaflets here in this very safe Labour seat. Greens are the second party.Our tory candidate lives down south! tory got about 5% of the vote last election. I guess they just stand here to say that they stand everywhere.

At least if December turns out miserable I have amazing people around me, who don't vote for poverty and cruelty... not that that helps the planet though.

Dh and I had a letter adressed to us from bridgen today.

Ugh.

Well what a surprise!

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/28/revealed-tory-candidates-issued-with-attack-manuals-on-how-to-smear-rivals

Nothing from anyone else....

derxa none at the moment, but have had up to 12 at a time. Getting 8 new rescue ones mid Dec, nice pets and the eggs are SO much better. I know you are a farmer, I'd love to be a mini-farmer but it's a vanity project and we dont really have enough land.

I would love a chicken. Probably not practical

squid you don’t need much space to keep chickens and as yolofish said the eggs taste amazing.

Our currently labour seat has the mp retiring and a 3 way battle between con, lab and plaid. It’s getting a bit nasty. And in the poll last night is shoes con ahead. Shoot me now! I wish labour and done a remain deal.

squid everyone needs at least 4 chickens, they like to be in a flock. One on its one would be lonely, if you got 2 then one might peg it; 3-4 is minimum! Plus they dont necesarily lay every day, so you need a bit of Momentum (ha!). But they dont need loads of space, if you look at something like Omlet.co.uk it's really easy to keep chickens in the back garden - that's how I started.

It shows
Had done

Proof read before posting

Red and others - if you don't like party literature, phone the parties up and tell them to mark your record as such. Yes, they do have a record - they are entitled to a copy of the full electoral register, and no, they don't want to waste time and effort canvassing people who are very firmly against their party. Be polite though - there is no need to rant and rave, or go chasing canvassers down your drive. No thanks, take me off your lists, I vote xxx is sufficient.

Hahaha.

If I thought they'd do that I might have more time for them.

Been there done that before in the past. Every correspondence I've had with them in the past has been ignored or I've had actual abuse for - including being told I was part of an organised tory campaign (I wasn't and they lost my vote that time because of it. I was going to vote for them).

Piss up. Brewery spring to mind.

If Boris appears on Andrew Marr hope he is asked about not appearing on Andrew Neil

They should get him on the Marr show and as soon as the interview starts, Marr goes out and Neil comes in, rolling up his fat sleeves

I’ve had 2 leaflets from Labour, 2 from the conservatives and eleventy billion from the LibDems.
Particularly fond of today’s Tory effort listing all the bad things in labour’s manifesto. Apparently politicians (including themselves?) being in charge of things is a VERY BAD IDEA.

anyway, awake this morning chewing on something
@faizashaheen
said last night: that one of the hardest things on the doorstep is convincing voters they CAN have the nice things in the Labour manifesto.
9:06 AM · Nov 28, 2019·Twitter Web App
70
Retweets
283
Likes
Sarah Jaffe
@sarahljaffe
·
9h
Replying to
@sarahljaffe
and
@faizashaheen
was last week including a few Thatcherisms in my book intro, one of which of course was "Economics is the method. The object is to change the soul."
Sarah Jaffe
@sarahljaffe
·
9h
it's a materialist argument from Thatcher herself! but more importantly: it's what has been most successful about her project, the one continued by today's Tories and quite a lot of centrists besides.
Sarah Jaffe
@sarahljaffe
·
9h
you can't have nice things, they say. impossible to have nice things. don't look at those rich people over there hoarding the nice things, you can't have them. there is no alternative. this is it.
Sarah Jaffe
@sarahljaffe
·
9h
first, of course, they took the nice things away. and people fought! it's important to remember this. the acquiescence comes later, after years of defeat.
Sarah Jaffe
@sarahljaffe
·
9h
the fight we are having now is to remind people that there always was another way the struggle could have gone. and that there is joy, too, in the struggle.
Sarah Jaffe
@sarahljaffe
·
9h
anyway, this all brought to you by reading a chapter of Capital in bed before I got up and by an evening canvassing with some of the nicest people you'll ever meet, who were finding Labour voters aplenty in a neighborhood they aren't supposed to be in.
Sarah Jaffe
@sarahljaffe
·
9h
I watched
@faizashaheen
spend like 20 minutes on one doorstep chatting with one woman who was undecided; as she stood there the next-door neighbor parted the curtains to hang an "I'm Voting Labour" sign in the window.

Ahem

Sorry I missed the top line so I'll re post the first part

Sarah Jaffe
@sarahljaffe
anyway, awake this morning chewing on something
@faizashaheen
said last night: that one of the hardest things on the doorstep is convincing voters they CAN have the nice things in the Labour manifesto.

Ben de Pear
@bendepear
· 21m
In a last ditch attempt ⁦*@BorisJohnson⁩ has sent his two wing men best friend ⁦*@michaelgove⁩ and dad Stanley Johnson to argue their way into a programme intended only for leaders. they were lovely and charming but neither are the leader #climatedebate

twitter.com/bendepear/status/1200116865894363136?s=21

In a last ditch attempt @BorisJohnson has sent his two wing men best friend @michaelgove and dad Stanley Johnson to argue their way into a programme intended only for leaders. they were lovely and charming but neither are the leader #climatedebate

My one positive I can glean from a big Tory majority is whatever they do next, and whatever shit storm follows, they will have to own it.
[LittlePickleHead]

They won't own it. Sajid Javid will be thrown under the bus.

Like this (posted by DGR):
I know why many are tempted to vote for Corbyn. Under Cameron and May, there were some big decisions about priorities that were wrong. Most importantly, from summer 2016 Hammond repeatedly blocked cash for the NHS and other services. In 2016 people voted for change — the Conservative Party didn’t hear that properly before the referendum and they didn’t hear it properly after the referendum.

But Boris did hear the demand for change and he will deliver it.

Wonder if the BBC will show this little clip

twitter.com/i/status/1200123479330295808

Gribbie I wish Labour had done a Remain Deal.

But ... Labour are pro-second Ref , not pro -Remain. 🤦‍♀️

Of course, they could have called it something else ('Save National Politics Alliance') but ... they didn't.

Also, Labour is still factionalised - and factions aren't still trying to work the 'angles' of the chaos.

So Momentum are backing candidates in unwinnable seats, and not supporting more Centrist candidates with the same energy.

And what that is going to do is split the anti-Tory vote (and here in Lindon, that is a majority vote) in some areas - letting a Tory take an anti-Tory seat.

It's incredibly frustrating.

Andrew Neil v Barry Gardiner - 0 - 1 to Gardiner!