Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

There's also the more sinister oddity that a party can drop a candidate after the ballots are printed, and voters won't necessarily be aware. As is happening where the Tory candidate has been deselected up in Scotland (?)

It's hard to keep up but there are literally dozens of candidates who have been caught making racist and sexist comments, or are accused of sexual violence or other offences, many of whom are still standing. Jon Worth on twitter has a thread on this, so far he has listed 30 candidates and I don't think he's finished .

twitter.com/jonworth/status/1196432024548134913?s=21

I've posted the first one below (happens to be a ex-kipper Tory candidate accused of antisemitism but if you click through you'll see that all the main parties are concerned).

^1. Amjad Bashir
Tory, Leeds North East

Problems: anti semitism, was in UKIP

Status: still a candidate^

Michael Rosen
@MichaelRosenYes
·
3h
Tories suspend Aberdeen North General Election candidate Ryan Houghton over Holocaust posts thejc.com/news/uk-news/tories-suspend-aberdeen-north-general-election-candidate-ryan-houghton-over-holocaust-posts-1.493274 via
@jewishchron

bigchoc think I imght travel around a few threads sharing my Soros claim to fame
I think my mum might have had an affair with him. This is her general modus operandi

Peter Stefanovic resorts to finger puppets to explain to tories why their '50 000 more nurses' promise is a lie:

twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1200035667167895553

Peter Stefanovic resorts to finger puppets to explain to tories why their '50 000 more nurses' promise is a lie

It yells for an animation.

If you have 280 MPs, and you think you might lose 15 of them at the election, but you then don't lose them and you get 35 more MPs as well, you have 315 MPs.

Matt Hancock thinks you will have 330 MPs.

You do have 50 more MPs compared to if you had done nothing and had lost those 15 MPs. But you definitely do not have 330 MPs.

I really hope someone has the chance to explain that to Johnson live on TV

BCF the point was that they collectively forged the New Labour vision that got them elected. That it all fell apart in mistakes, backstabbing and corruption is par for the course in politics. Just as Thatcher’s ‘mates’ stabbed her in the back. Political factions are far more frenemies than friends.

Campbell was Tony’s version of Bernard Ingham and Tim Bell. Someone who understands the media is indispensable. Blair specifically got Murdoch onside. Milne is a journalist so you’d think he could do something similar for Corbyn but he’s not a wily tabloid hack.

I really hope someone has the chance to explain that to Johnson live on TV

You'd have to catch him first.

I wonder if he's channelling the late great Joe Strummers disappearance in '82 ? I seem to recall NME having a bit of fun with readers sending in various Lucanesque sightings

You'd have to catch him first

Isn't there as debate soon?

I think someone needs to ask him the actual number he expects to have in the NHS.

They should also ask about the cash boost. Yes, it's a large cash boost, but that's because the NHS budget is so massive, so even a 1% increase is a large cash boost.

What is the actual percentage cash boost?

Has there been any further updates on Boris and the debate tonight? Surely the threat of the ice sculpture will be enough to make him agree to join in.

They will probably get more sense out of the ice sculpture than the real thing...

Has it been confirmed whether Boris is or isn't doing the Andrew Neil interview ?

Harry Cole on Twitter is saying Boris Johnson has offered to do Andrew Marr's Sunday morning show. Nothing on Andrew Neil.

This can't be true can it? Makes him look like even more of a chicken buffoon fuckwit charlatan.

So despite going to King's School Chester, Matt Hancock is unable to understand the maths?

I'm sure this doesn't equate. The only conclusion one can come to is that Matt Hancock is lying. it would be risible if Hancock raised this in a debate at age 16

BBC politics tweeting that Johnson won't commit to AN interview before the election.

Boris Johnson has offered to do Andrew Marr's Sunday morning show. Nothing on Andrew Neil

If they’ve got a modicum of sense they’ll turn down his kind offer. I was incandescent in 2017 when May was interviewed on Woman’s Hour by Jenny Murray and they set Emma Barnett on Corbyn.

So despite going to King's School Chester, Matt Hancock is unable to understand the maths?

Not quite sure why you say "despite". I'm guessing that the school discharged their brief perfectly, if not with distinction.

It's only if you think their brief was to educate their customers children pupils you might be perplexed. The purpose of education is not to learn (which can be terribly dangerous). It's to bag a top job. And very few top jobs require much - if any - education.

If Boris appears on Andrew Marr hope he is asked about not appearing on Andrew Neil.

derxa we've moved our chicken run (palace) and it was annoying me that I could see the old wood kind of glinting at me when I drove in. So I'm staining it black! Designer chicken run innit . Waiting for more chooks come middle of next month.

Re me being nasty to the Tory canvasser, his (female) colleague got my (total leftie, male) neighbour, and he told her to fuck off or he'd set the dogs on her. So I feel sorry for her but not quite as bad about my own comment!!

If Boris appears on Andrew Marr hope

nobody watches

I'd be amazed if we see Boris in any situation where he can be grilled. Why would we, if there's no risk to such a strategy ? After all, a quick trawl of MN suggests that there are voters who are voting regardless, so why bother doing any more work than necessary ? You do realise when Tories speak about "hard work" it's other peoples hard work they are referring to ?

Potential 4,600,000 votes in this ....

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/11/28/political_parties_fall_over_themselves_to_win_tech_contractors_vote_by_pledging_to_review_ir35/

yolo I'm always interested in any agricultural matters. How many hens do you have? Do you get bothered by foxes?

We are in the North East. So far Labour and the Brexit party sent leaflets to DH. Nothing to me.

Apropos of nothing, there is an independent candidate in Sunderland who was too weird even for the Brexit Party. He drives around in a tank.
www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/sunderland-election-candidate-dale-mckenzie-17323814

Just labour leaflets here in London, also had labour canvassing lots of labour posters in Windows, not seen any other parties or posters do have a labour MP with quite large majority though, she is very good & engaged with local issues.

Re leaflets through the door.

I personally believe it's best to keep your powder dry, especially if money is an issue when it comes to the hustings --though of course we all know that there are rules and regulations on spending in an election. Aye!

Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
·
Nov 27
BREAKING: The Conservative candidate for Luton South, Parvez Akhtar, calls on his party leader Boris Johnson to apologise for Islamophobia in the party.

“The Conservatives have a blind spot when it comes to Muslims”.

Full statement from him here 👇

twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1199643772604370945/photo/1