Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

Miliband is a good left of centre politician
He suffered because of Blair's legacy, not because he wasn't Blair

BJ has done a lot of bad shit, but so far he hasn't lied to get us into a US War For Oil,
hasn't helped cause a million deaths
created a political vacuum in the area that led to IS forming
hasn't destabilised the whole region and led to more wars
caused millions of refugees which turbocharged the far right in the Uk and across Europe

I'd be happy if Corbyn's replacement is as good as Miliband and with such a clean past

However, this rightwing spasm has to play out before Labour can get elected again

Both left and right hate Soros
I wonder what they have in common

@JustAnotherPoster00 , May still got more seats and was able to form a government. Second place gets you HM Opposition. It doesn't get you a victory.

I expect anti-semitism to ramp up in all parties in the next few years, whoever the leaders are

Unfortunately, I think that this is a rather plausible outcome, as we move in the direction of Hungary and Poland.

Remind me, is that the one May got a hundred seat majority that was predicted?

Labour will never win as long as it believed it won in 2017.

I think a pp brought up the single occupancy council tax discount earlier in the thread (I think it was this thread)

fullfact.org/election-2019/labour-policy-council-tax/

It's OK Devon - stand down - he couldn't remember the correct order of jam and cream so just guessed. He has no strong opinions either way but stated a very definite opinion very firmly in order to hide that. He can actually go either way - he just happened to choose the Cornish side, like he just happened to choose leave. nothing personal - all politicking. He was only making up bullshit and passing it off as fact #sconegate is over.

In other news - the BBC news have decided that actual news is no longer their remit. They are just the Boris Johnson fanclub dedicated to reporting his every utterance and agreeing with it sycophantically.

There is an election on, in which Mr. Scone has suppressed a report into links with Russia and refused to be interviewed either separately or alongside other party leaders - get off the scones BBC!

May still got more seats and was able to form a government

Only by bribing the DUP. Johnson’s got nobody left to bribe.

It’s never enough to have one good person at the top of a party you have to have a group that can work together and support each other with a coherent vision.

New Labour and Thatcher had that.

Miliband was a bit of a lone wolf as is Corbyn.

Miliband was a bit of a lone wolf as is Corbyn.

I disagree I like the fact that he let the shadow cabinet get on with their brief and doesnt interfere, part of the reason I feel Starmer hasnt been ripped apart with the Brexit shite so severely by the MSM and thats without taking into his account his competency

This is perhaps a little confrontational in its tone - but certainly true of some of the voting public.

a day in the life of joe the conservative

Sad oddity

When an Independent candidate dies after the nominations have closed, their name can't be removed, because they have no party to do so

This has only happened a few times in the last century

Now once again, we will have the sad and macabre situation in which a dead candidate can receive votes,

• many voters won't be aware he is dead, even if the council post notification of this:

BBC Politics@BBCPolitics

Independent candidate standing in Rutland and Melton, Anthony Watchorn, dies

My mum worked for George Soros until last year.

Fairly irrelevant and random fact!

this country is inherently quite right wing

I do agree but I'd say that's England mostly. Scotland in general is quite a bit to the left of that.

Excellent pretzels 😂👏🏼

Zac (our soon to be XMP) just sent DH a begging letter via email to "lend him his vote". Says that 12 seats is the magic number...

BBC Politics
@BBCPolitics
·
7h
"If you want to leave the EU, then do it in a way that does not destroy your own job"

Labour's Barry Gardiner sets out his party's message to Leave voters, after reports of a change in Labour's campaign strategy

I disagree

Can you point to Ed’s version of Tony’s cronies - Brown, Campbell and Mandleson?

He was not part of a group with a shared vision who could collectively take the party and and country with them. It was just Ed pottering along on his own.

Oh no, now you've done it, piggy

Think of all the tinfoil hats being adjusted

I do agree but I'd say that's England mostly. Scotland in general is quite a bit to the left of that.

That’s certainly true. It’s principally little England.

@JoannaObrien, FYI:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)_affiliated_trade_union
The party was created by the trade unions and socialist societies in 1900 as the Labour Representation Committee. Since then, the unions have retained close institutional links with the Party. During Tony Blair's leadership of the Labour Party the RMT and Fire Brigades Union severed their links. However, the Fire Brigades Union re-affiliated to the Labour Party in November 2015.[1]

The nature of affiliation means that the unions pay an annual fee to the Labour Party; in return, they and their members receive the privileges of affiliated membership. Unions select twelve of the thirty-two members of the Labour National Executive Committee and elect fifty per cent of the delegates to Labour Party Conference. In many cases, local union branches also affiliate to Constituency Labour Parties and their members who are also individual members of the Party may represent the Union as delegates on Labour Party structures.

Members of the unions may opt out of the affiliation, so that the member is not allowed to take part in any Labour Party ballots (such as the leadership election) in which other members of the affiliated union are involved.

Since 1994, affiliated trade unions have organised themselves into TULO - The Trade Union & Labour Party Liaison Organisation, with a small number of staff to manage the relationship between the unions and the Party. A national TULO committee, with the unions' general secretaries, the Party Leader and Deputy Leader, General Secretary and NEC Chair and MPs' representatives, meets regularly to co-ordinate work and policy.

It's not a case of 'bankrolling' anyone's political ambitions

Unions and Labour are institutionally affiliated and have been for over a hundred years.

And that’s why, although I support Scottish independence, I feel we would be impoverished polictically without Scottish MPs. Ok not Gove so much.

regarding the "sad oddity" BCF (and I am being on best behaviour here ) it's sort of balanced by the sad oddity that some people who have already cast their postal votes are dead. Just by statistics alone.

There's also the more sinister oddity that a party can drop a candidate after the ballots are printed, and voters won't necessarily be aware. As is happening where the Tory candidate has been deselected up in Scotland (?)

Peregrina just read your post from earlier today asking how my North East ex Labour Leave voting family members will feel when they don't get their Brexit bonus after 5 years of Tory government.

I guess they will feel let down, angry, blame someone else, blame the EU, who knows how they will feel in 5 years time. What matters at this point in time is how they feel now and how they feel let down by Labour. Some are not going to vote at all which may let the Tory vote through. From the poll last night the former safe Labour seat had gone to Lean Labour which was better than I thought it would be.

You also asked their ages, they are middle aged and older so hopefully the surge in young voters who are more likely to vote Labour will cancel out their lack of support.

I live near Manchester now and have mainly Remain voting friends so hear a mix of views.

"- Brown, Campbell and Mandleson? "

Brown was an asset to Labour - but a deadly rival to Blair, who helped force him out

Campbell was a spin doctor, not a politician

Do we really want more sexed up dossiers to help start illegal wars ?
He had to resign after the David Kelly enquiry revealed his disgraceful use of Kelly as a pawn to "get" journalist Andrew Gilligan

As for the disgraced Mandelson .... 😂
The kind of sleaze he represents helped tarnish New Labour