Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

I’d forgotten about that. Don’t know how because that’s the scariest part of the manifesto.

@JoannaObrien the big story is that the Tory party is funded by the Russians.......but that's harmless right 😳?

I might have the balance of this wrong but 2015/2017 Scottish Conservative Party (with Ruth Davidson as leader) compared to now = now is a less attractive prospect, no?!

I'm no expert on Scottish politics but isn't it just that the real divide in Scotland is not right/left or leave/remain, but in/out? That puts a natural ceiling on the SNP vote and makes it easier for the Tories to defend their remaining seats. A vote cast while holding your nose is still a vote.

What one billion pounds look like.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-50576648/what-does-a-billion-pounds-actually-look-like

Philip Pullman
@PhilipPullman
There comes a point in the history of a nation where stupidity is indistinguishable from wickedness. That's where we are now.
9:39 AM · Nov 28, 2019·Twitter Web A

"A vote cast while holding your nose is still a vote."
That's pretty much my position @Mistigri . No one I would vote for would give a shit that I had to hold my nose to do it. They would take my vote as happily as they would take a fanatic's. Just as no one gives a shit when I write NONE on my ballot paper.

I always take my dd with me when I vote. I've done it since she was tiny - she's 12. I feel desperately sad that I have no one to positively endorse.

I feel desperately sad that I have no one to positively endorse

So true bellini after all none of the parties have her future in my mind, I mean who could possibly want to grow up in a Britain with free tuition, well funded health care, well funded public services and action being taken on climate for the future

Who could possibly want to grow up in a Britain where Jewish descent people like her have to be careful who learns about her ethnic origin.

As for action on climate matters, I don't expect you to know the ins and outs of my local environmental issue but , frankly, that's a bit rich if you knew what the local Labour guy is supporting.

DH's and my postal votes arrived today. I have voted and will post it later.

I agree the far right are on the rise enabled by people like Johnson who has anti-semites in his government, the support of Victor Orban and of course that all round good and decent fellow Tommy Robinson supports him

I live in a Tommy Robinson area. Who are enabled by a failing opposition. So they make their own.

Ah ok yeah you're probably right, if Corbyn was better at opposing the Tories I'm sure Tommy would just stop being so racist I hadnt thought of that

You know very well that a failure to provide an effective Opposition leaves the door open for twats to fill the gap.
And thanks for being so dismissive of my concerns for my daughter if antisemites get no more than a tap on the wrist from this useless and ineffectual leader.

The Far right were emboldened by a referendum mired in dog whistles and outright xenophobia. Let's not go rewriting history now.

As far as I am concerned, the Tory party is just as anti-semitic as the Labour party, as well as being islamaphobic, and racist.

I agree @Peregrina . And I don't expect any better of them.

for those who havent seen this

Michael Rosen
@MichaelRosenYes
· 1h
If people combatting antisemitism in the Labour Party are not combatting antisemitism in the Tory Party then they're not combatting antisemitism. They're combatting the Labour Party.

It helps me to take from the YouGov poll (if it's even accurate!!)) that while 46% intend to vote Conservative and Brexit Party, 52% intend to vote Labour, Lib Dem, SNP or Green.

The vagaries of FPTP might mean a working Conservative majority but it does not mean that a majority of the electorate will have voted for them.

I really need to believe that on balance humans are outward looking and care for more vulnerable people. On balance more people want a fairer, kinder society than do not.

It was ever thus that the psychopaths and narcissists manage to wield the most power because they do not have moral limits on their behaviour:-(.

And Rabbi Julia Neuberger who is a cross bencher in the House of Lords is in agreement with the Chief Rabbi although she is more liberal in politics and religious observance.
I know it's shocking for you to realise that people have different opinions.

Funny how that one hasn’t made it to the front page of BBC News, isn’t it, Just

I know it's shocking for you to realise that people have different opinions.

Is it? I hadnt realised, then consider me shocked that people have different opinions

The letter was immediately rubbished as suspect by the Corbyn-bashing Guardians of anti-Semitism, as are the Jewish Voice for Labour so permit me a wry smile re bellini's guff about different opinions.

The vagaries of FPTP might mean a working Conservative majority but it does not mean that a majority of the electorate will have voted for them.

But this just makes it even more horrible and frustrating. If it was a majority of the population, I could just say ‘you lot have made your bed and now you can lie in it - I’m off somewhere else’. But the fact that a minority of the voting population can bring all this shit down on everyone else just makes me want to scream and throw things