Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

@Alsohuman , I don't "change like the wind". I've openly despised Corbyn on here for ages.

Thank you @Random18

I do not agree with privatising BT.

It was privatised in the 80's

I do not agree with their policy for WASPI woman.

Some of these women have paid in for over 40 years, the money is theirs

The big MRP/YouGov poll points to some outcomes that I find pretty surprising. 2 stand out to me:

First, 1 additional seat for the Lib Dems, 1?! I'd be surprised if they don't do a bit better than that. The "near misses" described her, ok some of them aren't very close but half a dozen requiring a swing of

Just, ha ha yes. Wrong word there.

And as for WASPI woman, I am not saying that something doesn't need to be done.

But this is a knee jerk policy that has not been properly considered.

I am not sure about scrapping Ofsted. You should be worried about this. Ofsted is hideous and I have endured several inspections.
However...

Corbyn's problem of being neutral now, as Harold Wilson was in 1975, is that he's taken this stance three and a half years too late, and can't really now go back on it.

I would vote Labour if the local MP took a different view on a local issue despite Corbyn. My local MP is exactly the sort of person Labour needs when it finally dumps Corbyn.
I would vote Labour despite the local issue if they had a better leader because we need to get rid of the Tories.
I won't vote Labour with both negative factors in play.

I do not agree with their policy for WASPI woman

If Waspi win their court case, the government of the day won’t have any choice. The amounts Labour is suggesting are frankly bonkers though, according to their calculator I’d collect £22,100!

Love to you squid and for your sake I hope you quit next year or that the thought of quitting can keep you going.

The past 6 months I've sat in 3 different consultant rooms one apologised to us for how shit everything is on loop, one gently prepped us for further medication shortages and the third was somewhat on the edge of a nervous breakdown. The latter was a bizarre appointment of not great news which was hard to digest given the doctor's state - in a very gallows humour kind of way it was hilarious. When we left I was as worried about the Dr as I was about DP. There's not a lot i can do about either except try and stay somewhat sane myself i am failing miserably

If its money you can do without AH donate it to a charity but there are plenty of WASPI women who need that money

There are another 8 close Conservative/SNP seats identified by YouGov and I think to expect that the SNP won't collect any of those seems bordering on absurd. Really? A vote for the Tories is a vote for no more independence referendums. If I had a vote in Scotland I would vote Tory. Without question.

My local MP is exactly the sort of person Labour needs when it finally dumps Corbyn.

But to stay an MP he needs the votes. Look what has happened in the Tory party, where significant numbers of relatively moderate Tories have been kicked out. Do you want that to happen to Labour?

1 additional seat for the Lib Dems, 1?! I'd be surprised if they don't do a bit better than that. I agree and hope that's the case.

If Labour is no longer a wide enough church then I don't care what happens to them . Well, that's not quite true, I care. But not enough to vote for them.

I am a WASPI and have mixed feelings - the changes were a long time in the pipeline, so some preparation could have been made for it, which I did. However if the case is won, I would have another year's worth of state pension and won't say no to a nice little bonus of £5,000 ish.

I'll take Corbyn over more Tory austerity and dismantling of public services. I'm not interested in personality politics.

My position exactly Ghost

Universal Credit now includes Maternity Allowance. I was shocked when I discovered this.

It's a vile and degrading system and Labour will scrap it.

I'm heartened about the voting registration figures. Young people are our only saviours now and it's wonderful they recognise the perils ahead with a Tory party in Government.

news.sky.com/story/general-election-record-number-of-people-apply-to-register-to-vote-on-deadline-day-11871433

Just nobody needs a windfall of £22k. I’ve got a friend who’s been affected far worse than me, if I were (highly unlikely) to receive such a sum, a fair amount of it would find its way to her bank account.

I was a "young person " under Thatcher. What we needed was a decent leader of the Opposition to fight her off. We nearly got it with Kinnock, we would have had it with Smith.

and the other is Corbyn.
I can hold my nose for one but not two things

I'm not going to try and dissuade/ persuade you Bellini** as I've read your arguments.

But for anyone else who likes their local labour MP/ candidate but is hesitating over Corbyn I'd say ...Look Brexit has seen off 2 Tory leaders and will probably see off a third. Why should Labour be any different ! and Corbyn is the North side of seventy now. He just wouldn't do a five year term- he really wouldn't.

People coming to crow over others in their victory (of any kind) is not uncommon really.

Perhaps also Leave voters are more on the defensive on these threads given the lack of any/many factual reasons for voting Leave (stronger union? improved services? higher growth and greater GDP? better economy? more jobs? greater investment in R&D? All deemed unlikely etc).

Generally the only reason I've read for supporting a Leave vote that is more understandable to me is 'sovereignty' and there is something in that as - for a bit - our government will be free to remove/set legislation.

Only problem is that I don't trust a Tory-run government to remove or enact legislation that will favour or help the majority. And I think our Tory run-governments' sovereignty isn't going to last long once it signs FTA's with the likes of the US...

I might have the balance of this wrong but 2015/2017 Scottish Conservative Party (with Ruth Davidson as leader) compared to now = now is a less attractive prospect, no?!

On the other side, as you say derxa pro-Union voters will gravitate towards the Conservatives, perhaps that is enough to stave off the threat of more losses.

Thank you @lonelyplanetmum . I've thought long and hard about it but I can't.

If Waspi win their court case, the government of the day won’t have any choice.

Only if it's a government that's going to abide by the law.

Page 48, Tory manifesto:

“After Brexit we also need to look at the broader aspects of our constitution: the relationship between the government, parliament and the courts; the functioning of the Royal prerogative; the role of the House of Lords; and access to justice for ordinary people. The ability of our security services to defend us against terrorism and organised crime is critical. We will update the Human Rights Act and administrative law to ensure that there is a proper balance between the rights of individuals, our vital national security and effective government.”